{"id":1085711,"date":"2023-01-06T09:10:22","date_gmt":"2023-01-06T14:10:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/fed-leading-indicator-shows-unemployment-rate-is-poised-to-pick-up\/1085711\/"},"modified":"2023-01-06T09:10:22","modified_gmt":"2023-01-06T14:10:22","slug":"fed-leading-indicator-shows-unemployment-rate-is-poised-to-pick-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/fed-leading-indicator-shows-unemployment-rate-is-poised-to-pick-up\/1085711\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed Leading Indicator Shows Unemployment Rate Is Poised To Pick Up"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"ftpimagefix\" style=\"float:left\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/markets\/fed-leading-indicator-shows-unemployment-rate-poised-pick\" rel=\"noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"100\" data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"ff841599-ae3a-4c87-8f80-0bc21a170caf\" class=\"inline-images image-style-inline-images\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.zerohedge.com\/s3fs-public\/styles\/inline_image_mobile\/public\/inline-images\/2023-01-06_07-16-35.jpg?itok=UJ1tXOVh\" alt=\"\"><\/a><\/div>\n<p><span class=\"field field--name-title field--type-string field--label-hidden\">Fed Leading Indicator Shows Unemployment Rate Is Poised To Pick Up<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"clearfix text-formatted field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field__item\">\n<p><em>Authored by Ye Xie, Bloomberg Editorial,<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>While the unemployment rate ticked down again, a\u00a0leading indicator suggests it is set to increase in coming months.<\/strong>\u00a0If so, that will put pressure on the equity market.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>The index, created by Merk Investments\u2019s\u00a0Nick Reece, tracks the z-scores of six indicators (<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.frbsf.org\/economic-research\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/el2013-30.pdf\" rel=\"noopener\">identified in a 2013\u00a0San Francisco Fed paper<\/a>) that<strong> tend to predict trends in the unemployment rate.<\/strong> Those indicators are payroll growth, initial and continuous jobless claims, capacity utilization and ISM manufacturing and the job components in the consumer confidence survey.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The index bottomed earlier last year and has been rising ever since,<\/strong> driven by slower payroll growth and declines in ISM manufacturing.<\/p>\n<p>To be sure, there were false alarms in the past, such as in 2018-2019. Still, the Fed\u2019s intention is to slow wage growth to curb inflation.<\/p>\n<p><strong>If the labor market doesn\u2019t cool, the Fed will have to tighten more. Until the Fed succeeds, the equity market is likely to stay under pressure.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>      <span class=\"field field--name-uid field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden\"><a target=\"_blank\" title=\"View user profile.\" href=\"https:\/\/cms.zerohedge.com\/users\/tyler-durden\" lang=\"\" class=\"username\" xml:lang=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span><br \/>\n<span class=\"field field--name-created field--type-created field--label-hidden\">Fri, 01\/06\/2023 &#8211; 13:20<\/span><\/p>\n<p>From:<a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/markets\/fed-leading-indicator-shows-unemployment-rate-poised-pick\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"Fed Leading Indicator Shows Unemployment Rate Is Poised To Pick Up\" rel=\"noopener\">Zerohedge<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fed Leading Indicator Shows Unemployment Rate Is Poised To Pick Up Authored by Ye Xie, Bloomberg Editorial, While the unemployment rate ticked down again, a\u00a0leading&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1085711","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1085711","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1085711"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1085711\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1085711"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1085711"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1085711"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}