{"id":1440732,"date":"2023-11-27T08:30:00","date_gmt":"2023-11-27T13:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1440732"},"modified":"2023-11-27T08:30:00","modified_gmt":"2023-11-27T13:30:00","slug":"polands-de-facto-blockade-of-ukraine-is-its-outgoing-governments-last-power-play","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/polands-de-facto-blockade-of-ukraine-is-its-outgoing-governments-last-power-play\/1440732\/","title":{"rendered":"Poland’s De Facto Blockade Of Ukraine Is Its Outgoing Government’s Last Power Play"},"content":{"rendered":"

Poland’s De Facto Blockade Of Ukraine Is Its Outgoing Government’s Last Power Play<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

This is also Poland\u2019s last realistic chance to defend its territorial integrity in the face of the coming years\u2019 threats.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Poland is poised to become Germany\u2019s largest-ever vassal state upon former Prime Minister and European Commission President Donald Tusk\u2019s likely return to the premiership following the liberal-globalist opposition coalition\u2019s victory in last month\u2019s elections. <\/strong>Those who are interested in learning more about how this is expected to unfold should review this analysis\u00a0here<\/a>, which focuses on how the interplay between EU, German, and NATO policies will likely lead to this geopolitical outcome.<\/p>\n

Since that fateful vote took place, Polish truckers now even farmers have imposed a de facto blockade against Ukraine that the outgoing government hasn\u2019t broken, which can be regarded as that party\u2019s last power play aimed at giving their country a fighting chance at preserving some of its sovereignty. Here\u2019s a collection of news items about this development from the beginning of the month in order to bring readers up to speed since the Western media hasn\u2019t given it the attention that it deserves<\/strong>:<\/p>\n

* \u201cEU state blocking Ukrainian vehicles \u2013 Spiegel<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

* \u201cUkrainian envoy condemns Polish trucker blockade<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

* \u201cProtesters in EU state blocking aid to Kiev \u2013 Ukrainian official<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

* \u201cPolish farmers to join Ukraine blockade \u2013 Bloomberg<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

* \u201cUkrainians warned of food shortages<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

* \u201cUkraine counting costs of Polish border blockade<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

* \u201cPolish truckers blocking Ukraine military cargos \u2013 media<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

This scenario was actually forecast in early October in the author\u2019s piece about how \u201cMorawiecki Suspects That Zelensky Struck A Deal With Germany Behind Poland\u2019s Back<\/a>\u201d. It was predicted that Poland could impose a de facto blockade against Ukraine if the ruling party won in order to coerce that country into distancing itself from Germany to a degree, which sought to replace Poland\u2019s desired sphere of influence there as part of its regional power play against it. Here\u2019s the pertinent excerpt from that piece:<\/p>\n

\u201cPoland could threaten to stop the transit of third countries\u2019 (especially Germany\u2019s) military and economic aid to Ukraine until Kiev pays restitution for [the Przewodow incident] in the form of institutionalizing its envisaged sphere of influence there. What\u2019s being proposed is a remix of the 1938 ultimatum that Poland gave to Lithuania, albeit this time without the implied threat of armed force if Ukraine doesn\u2019t agree. Nevertheless, the threat of cutting off that country\u2019s military and economic lifeline would likely be sufficient for coercing Kiev into complying with Warsaw\u2019s demands.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

As it turned out, Poland did indeed impose a de facto blockade against Ukraine, though the ruling party and its potential allies failed to win the majority of parliamentary seats during last month\u2019s elections. <\/strong>Nevertheless, their refusal to break up the trucker-farmer blockade of that former Soviet Republic strongly implies tacit approval for it, and nobody should be surprised if it\u2019s later revealed that that they played a role in organizing this behind the scenes to some extent.<\/p>\n

From the outgoing government\u2019s perspective, the restoration of Poland\u2019s sphere of influence over Ukraine in the face of aggressive German attempts to replace it is required for their country to have a fighting chance at preserving its sovereignty vis-\u00e0-vis Germany during Tusk\u2019s next premiership. Even though he\u2019s expected to subordinate Poland to German hegemony as the hyperlinked analysis at the beginning of this piece explained, this desired geopolitical reversal could impede that.<\/p>\n

To elaborate, the worst-case scenario for Poland is that it becomes Germany\u2019s largest-ever vassal state and then plays second fiddle to Ukraine in Berlin\u2019s envisaged \u201cMitteleuropa\u201d, which would run the risk of Berlin rewarding Kiev for forthcoming preferential reconstruction contracts with influence over Warsaw. This could in practice take the form of forcing Poland to accept even more Ukrainian migrants than it already has, all with the intent of them then becoming citizens and forming their own voting bloc.<\/p>\n

If these \u201cWeapons of Mass Migration<\/a>\u201d concentrate along the border region that the briefly lived post-WWI Ukrainian state at one time claimed as its own, then these newfound demographic realities and the creation of a powerful German-backed voting bloc could one day threaten Poland\u2019s territorial integrity. It\u2019s therefore imperative to avert this worst-case scenario through all realistic means possible, ergo why the outgoing government strongly appears to tacitly approve of the ongoing de facto blockade.<\/p>\n

If it succeeds in coercing Ukraine into restoring Poland\u2019s sphere of influence over the country that Germany just recently replaced over the summer, ideally by institutionalizing it in some legal form prior to the incumbents leaving office, then Poland\u2019s territorial integrity can more confidently be defended. As regards Tusk\u2019s plans to subordinate Poland to German hegemony, he\u2019ll struggle to do so completely since that would necessitate a full-fledged purge of his country\u2019s permanent bureaucracy.<\/p>\n

In particular, he\u2019d have to remove all conservative-nationalists from the military, intelligence, and diplomatic branches thereof (collectively referred as the \u201cdeep state\u201d), which is a herculean task that he might possibly attempt but won\u2019t be able to completely implement. Any serious moves in this direction could also provoke large-scale protests or similar such socio-economic disruptions that could be orchestrated by those same forces exactly as they\u2019re suspected of partially orchestrating the blockade.<\/p>\n

Just like the liberal-globalist \u201cdeep state\u201d worked against Trump\u2019s agenda in the US, so too could Poland\u2019s conservative-nationalist counterparts work against Tusk\u2019s in order to sabotage his goal of subordinating Poland to German hegemony. <\/strong>To be clear, they won\u2019t be able to stop it entirely even in the best-case scenario just like Trump\u2019s \u201cdeep state\u201d opponents couldn\u2019t entirely stop his agenda, but they could still largely derail it and buy time till the next elections, which is good enough given the circumstances. \u00a0<\/p>\n

If they don\u2019t restore Poland\u2019s recently lost sphere of influence over Ukraine before handing over control of the government to Tusk, however, then impending threats to Poland\u2019s territorial integrity could become a fait accompli by the time the next polls are held in the worst-case scenario. That\u2019s why the de facto blockade of Ukraine can be regarded not just as the outgoing government\u2019s last power play, but as Poland\u2019s last realistic chance to defend its territorial integrity in the face of the coming years\u2019 threats.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nMon, 11\/27\/2023 – 03:30<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bhttps:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/geopolitical\/polands-de-facto-blockade-ukraine-its-outgoing-governments-last-power-play<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Poland’s De Facto Blockade Of Ukraine Is Its Outgoing Government’s Last Power Play Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack, This is also Poland\u2019s last realistic…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1440732","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1440732","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1440732"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1440732\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1440732"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1440732"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1440732"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}