{"id":1440941,"date":"2023-11-28T07:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-11-28T12:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1440941"},"modified":"2023-11-28T07:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-11-28T12:00:00","slug":"the-west-is-inching-closer-to-more-insanity-in-the-baltic-sea","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/the-west-is-inching-closer-to-more-insanity-in-the-baltic-sea\/1440941\/","title":{"rendered":"The West Is Inching Closer To More Insanity In The Baltic Sea"},"content":{"rendered":"

The West Is Inching Closer To More Insanity In The Baltic Sea<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Authored by Conor Gallagher via NakedCapitalism.com,<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

In the Baltic Sea \u2013 home of the twisted wreckage of the Nord Stream pipelines \u2013 another pipeline was recently damaged along with telecommunications cables.<\/p>\n

Western officials are making escalatory statements and are again floating the idea of closing the\u00a0\u201cNATO lake\u201d<\/a>\u00a0to Russian ships, which would likely be viewed by Moscow as an act of war. <\/strong><\/p>\n

Onshore, Finland is rapidly militarizing its border with Russia. And a notable Chinese cargo ship is now at the center of the firestorm.<\/p>\n

The Newnew Polar Bear<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Over the weekend of October 8th there was an unusual drop in pressure in the Finnish-Estonian Balticconnector gas pipeline. By the morning of October 10th, an investigation had found that the pipeline had ruptured. Telecom cables linking Finland, Estonia and Sweden had also been damaged, as had a Russian telecom cable in the Gulf of Finland.<\/p>\n

By October 20th, Finland and Estonia were pointing the finger at the Newnew Polar Bear \u2013 a Chinese vessel. The Finnish National Bureau of Investigation produced a large anchor found near the damaged pipeline, which it believes belonged to the 169-meter-long ship and likely broke off as it was dragged across the sea floor. Investigators have not explained a theory for how exactly the anchor damaged telecom cables on opposite sides of the pipeline and broke off at the Balticconector.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

I haven\u2019t been able to track down an exact distance between the Balticconnector and the telecom cables, but Finnish telecom operator Elisa\u00a0told<\/a>\u00a0Reuters that the distance between the two was \u201csignificant.\u201d<\/p>\n

Nonetheless, speculation is that damaging the pipeline and cables would have been hard to do without knowing. According to\u00a0Insurance Marine News:<\/a><\/p>\n

It seemed unlikely-to-impossible that the crew could have been unaware of this incident, as the event would have slowed the ship dramatically and involuntarily. If the anchor had fallen accidentally and it had hit the gas line, it could have caused severe damage to the pipe. If the anchor had been stuck to the seabed, it would not have passed unnoticed because the speed would have slowed and the ship would have tilted.<\/p>\n

The Finnish daily Helsingin Sanomat\u00a0wrote on Oct. 23rd<\/a>\u00a0that the Newnew Polar Bear stopped in bad weather 1.4 nautical miles from the gas pipeline for about eight minutes before continuing on.<\/p>\n

Images of the Newnew missing an anchor were soon circulating:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

***UPDATE***<\/p>\n

Photo circulating of the NewNew Polar Bear, the ship suspected of cutting the Balticconnector gas pipeline and two communications cables with its anchor.<\/p>\n

Everyone is looking at the (missing) anchor<\/p>\n

However, look at the containers\u2026 #OSINT<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/mTThwHKSZl<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 H I Sutton (@CovertShores) October 27, 2023<\/a><\/p>\n

Newnew Shipping Co. has been silent on the matter. Meanwhile, Finland and Estonia have formally submitted a legal notice to China for cooperation as part of their ongoing investigation. Beijing has promised its full cooperation, although it\u2019s possible China might not be too eager to assist Estonia, which is allowing Taiwan to set up a government office in Tallinn. The Estonian FM recently doubled down on that decision,\u00a0declaring<\/a>\u00a0that the country\u2019s goal is to cooperate \u201cwith like-minded partners, mainly our transatlantic allies.\u201d<\/p>\n

Accusations have already been flying of a plot by the Russians and Chinese since the Newnew\u00a0sails under<\/a>\u00a0the Hong Kong flag and had a Northern Sea Route\u00a0sailing permission<\/a>\u00a0issued by the General Administration of the Northern Sea Route addressed to Torgmoll, a Russian-registered company with offices in Moscow and Shanghai.\u00a0<\/em>While this has been treated by some as some sort of\u00a0smoking gun<\/a>, it\u2019s simply because of a\u00a0joint project<\/a>\u00a0of two Chinese companies \u2013 the international shipping line Hainan Yangpu Newnew Shipping Co and cargo agent Torgmoll. Russia\u2019s state-owned Rosatom also provides information and navigation support for the newly established container transportation service via the Northern Sea Route between China and Russia.<\/p>\n

Sari Arho Havren, an associate fellow at London\u2019s Royal United Services Institute, told RFE\/RL\u00a0the following:<\/a><\/p>\n

Whether this incident was intentional or not, it\u2019s something that both Russia and China can benefit from. Even if the scale may be small, it once again diverts NATO\u2019s attention and resources away from other global focal points.<\/p>\n

Russia has denied any involvement and China\u2019s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning recently\u00a0said<\/a>\u00a0this on the issue:<\/p>\n

We hope relevant parties will follow the principles of being objective, fair, just and professional and find out what happened soon. China stands ready to provide necessary assistance in accordance with international law.<\/p>\n

Interestingly, there is much more significance to the Newnew Polar Bear than just its alleged involvement in the incident with the pipeline and communication cables. From\u00a0Maritime Executive:<\/a><\/p>\n

In another demonstration of the efforts to expand shipping along Russia\u2019s Northern Sea Route, the Chinese-owned containership Newnew Polar Bear (15,950 dwt) became the first to reach the Russian port in Kaliningrad after a six-week passage. The governor of the Kaliningrad region Anton Alikhanov hailed the achievement on his Telegram account.<\/p>\n

The vessel was acquired earlier this year by a new Chinese shipping company, Hainan Yangpu Newnew Shipping Co., and ushered in the route sailing from St. Petersburg at the beginning of July. She started the return trip from China in late August, reaching Kaliningrad on Tuesday and spending three days on dock. The ship registered in Hong Kong is 554 feet long with a capacity of 1,600 TEU.<\/p>\n

She is part of the effort to expand trade between China and Russia and grow traffic along the Northern Sea Route. President Vladimir Putin has ordered the authorities overseeing the route to boost annual shipments to 80 million metric tons in 2024.<\/p>\n

\u201cTransport companies plan to make this logistics product permanent. It turns out cheaper and faster than through the Suez Canal,\u201d writes Alikhanov touting the party line on his Telegram account.<\/p>\n

So the Newnew was also a symbolic milestone for the increasing Russia-China trade via the North Sea route \u2013 part of the Arctic final frontier of the New Cold War where Russia already has an apparent advantage.\u00a0Moscow says freight turnover in the Arctic Basin\u00a0rose<\/a>\u00a04.4 percent in 2022 to 98.5 mln metric tons. From\u00a0Reuters:\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n

Russia is sending more crude oil produced in the Arctic region to China and India, and at steeper discounts, after Europe slammed its doors shut on Russian supplies last month, trade sources and data show.<\/p>\n

Over many years Russia has built up its fleet of icebreakers, ships and submarines. Moscow has also developed mining and oil well operations along its 15,000 miles of Arctic coastline. The US is trying to play catch up by pouring money into existing bases in Alaska and Greenland and establishing\u00a0four US military bases<\/a>\u00a0on Norwegian soil. But Russian economic activity in the Arctic is only expected to increase in coming years, and Moscow considers it an \u201carea of existential importance: where it can use all components in the defense of its interests, including force.<\/p>\n

Much of the oil and gas from the Russian arctic used to go to Europe. It\u2019s now headed to China and India. India got its first\u00a0shipment of Arctic liquefied gas<\/a>\u00a0last year, and the country\u2019s energy companies are looking at investing in Russian projects there.<\/p>\n

As Andrew Korybko points out, Finland\u2019s\u00a0efforts to manufacture crises<\/a>\u00a0at its Russia border could be seen as part of the West\u2019s efforts to militarize the Arctic confrontation:<\/p>\n

Granted, the \u201cmutually assured destruction\u201d (MAD) between NATO and Russia places very real limits on how much pressure can be exerted along this newfound front, but still opening it might be deemed by the bloc\u2019s decisionmakers to be better than keeping it closed in that scenario. In other words, \u201cwhere one door closes, another opens\u201d, or to be more direct, the end of NATO\u2019s proxy war on Russia via Ukraine could lead to the opening of a less high-stakes but still destabilizing front in Finland.<\/p>\n

This outcome would also serve the supplementary purpose of being exploited by the Mainstream Media as the \u201cpublicly plausible\u201d pretext for accelerating the Arctic\u2019s militarization. This \u201cfinal frontier\u201d of the\u00a0New Cold War<\/a>\u00a0is poised to soon be a theater of competition between the US-led West\u2019s Golden Billion and the Sino-Russo Entente due to the Northern Sea Route\u2019s growing role in facilitating East-West trade. Considering this, hyping up the Finnish front like NATO is already doing \u201ckills two birds with one stone\u201d.<\/p>\n

The immediate fallout from the damage to the Balticconnector is minor. According to\u00a0Naval News<\/a>, the Finnish gas grid is still stable thanks to a massive US-owned floating LNG facility that was moored last year to replace Russian gas. The rupture of the Balticconnector does mean that Finland cannot send gas to Estonia until repairs are made, which could take a few months. The telecom cables have already been repaired.<\/p>\n

Bigger picture, however, it will serve as a useful tool to further militarize the Baltic and Arctic.<\/p>\n

Before the investigation into the damage of the pipeline and communications cables even settled on the Newnew Polar Bear, Baltic officials had itchy trigger fingers pointed at Russia. For example, Latvian President Edgars Rink\u0113vi\u010ds\u00a0said<\/a>\u00a0the\u00a0Baltic Sea<\/a>\u00a0should be closed to Russia if it is found Moscow was involved. The statement was part of the growing chorus to turn the Baltic into a new front against Russia.<\/p>\n

A Baltic Blockade?<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The tale of the Newnew Polar Bear could provide more fuel for western hardliners who keep pushing the blockade gambit. The Financial Times reported on Nov. 14 that the EU was actually considering stopping Russian oil ships to check their papers as part of a desperate attempt to enforce the ill-conceived oil price caps. Under that failed plan oil not sold under the $60-a-barrel limit cannot be covered by western insurance for its sea voyage.<\/p>\n

Well, western officials admit that \u201calmost none\u201d of Russian crude exports\u00a0were sold below that price point\u00a0<\/a>in October, and the ships are simply using non-western insurance.<\/p>\n

Now, EU officials are saying with a straight face that the reason they must stop ships carrying Russian crude is that non-western insurance policies may not be effective in the event of an oil spill. Anonymous EU officials told the Financial Times that the task would fall to Denmark in the narrow Danish Straits and checks would be conducted under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea laws permitting states to to \u201cinstitute proceedings, including detention of the vessel\u201d given \u201cclear objective evidence\u201d that the vessel poses a threat of environmental damage.<\/p>\n

What of the problems with such a plan? The\u00a0Financial Times notes<\/a>:<\/p>\n

But officials briefed on the proposal say it relies on the capacity of Denmark\u2019s naval authorities to stop and check the tankers, and raises the question of what Copenhagen would do if a ship refused to stop. \u201cDiscussions appear to be centred on making life more complicated for Russia and the buyers of its oil,\u201d said Henning Gloystein at Eurasia Group. \u201cIf you can make the bureaucracy and risk associated with trading Russian oil a lot more onerous the expectation is buyers will start to demand larger discounts again for their trouble.\u201d<\/p>\n

The fact that Russia would almost certainly see such efforts as an act of war goes unmentioned. Roughly 60 percent of Russia\u2019s total seaborne oil exports pass through the Danish straits on its way to international markets, and Moscow\u2019s updated version of the Naval Doctrine of the Russian Federation\u00a0lists<\/a>\u00a0the Baltic Sea and and the Danish Straits as \u201cimportant areas,\u201d in which the use of force will be available as a last resort after the other options have been exhausted.<\/p>\n

After the FT report based on info from unnamed EU officials, Reuters shot it down with other anonymous EU officials saying that there was no such plan in the European Commission\u2019s proposal for tightening the implementation of a price cap on Russia\u2019s crude oil,\u00a0noting the following:<\/a><\/p>\n

Three maritime experts said blocking commercial vessels in the Danish straits would be contrary to fundamental rules of the sea, including the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, which governs marine traffic.<\/p>\n

Denmark would only have the right to stop a vessel if it posed an obvious threat, they said.<\/p>\n

\u201cDenmark has never done anything like that before. Blocking commercial traffic in the Danish straits would come close to a declaration of war,\u201d said Hans Peter Michaelsen, an independent defense analyst.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s possible that disagreement over the ship inspection gambit is one of the reasons behind the delay in the European Commission\u2019s\u00a0delay on its 12th sanctions package<\/a>. It\u2019s also possible that the FT report was just another in a long line of trial balloons on the possibility of upping the ante in the Baltic.<\/p>\n

Estonia, which has a population smaller than Russia\u2019s armed forces, is making noise about causing problems in the Gulf of Finland with Estonian Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur recently\u00a0talking<\/a>\u00a0about how Helsinki and Tallinn will integrate their coastal missile defense, which he says would allow the countries to close the Gulf of Finland to Russian warships if necessary. Early this year Estonia was also proposing closing the Gulf of Finland to Russia \u2013 effectively blockading Saint Petersburg.<\/p>\n

The fact that western governments continue to go back to these ideas increases the odds that at some point they\u2019re going to try something along these lines.<\/p>\n

They\u2019re already well on their way to implementing The Center for Strategic and International Studies\u00a0plan for NATO near-term actions<\/a>\u00a0in the Baltic:<\/p>\n

Bring Sweden and Finland into NATO. The ratification of these two nations needs to move forward without delay. Elevating them from strong partners to alliance members changes the calculus of a Baltic conflict significantly. The alliance can immediately leverage these two nations to increase strategic depth.<\/p>\n

Forward stage capabilities. Mines, anti-submarine capabilities, missile defense, and secure supply and logistics infrastructure should be forward staged across all domains, increasing deterrence.<\/p>\n

Increase patrol. A whole-of-government approach from each Baltic nation and its allies is needed to ensure that energy, communications, and sea routes remain secure. This includes Baltic Air Policing, readiness to shift the balance of A2\/AD, and the monitoring and protection of maritime infrastructure.<\/p>\n

Strengthen command and control. Existing multi-domain command and control should be tested and ready for use. The need for effective command and control will be swift and will require resilient disaggregated nodes, though an eye should also be kept on future capability.<\/p>\n

Taken altogether, it\u2019s clear that despite the waning support for Project Ukraine, there will be no winding down of the confrontation between Europe and Russia, and the Baltic is one potential spot for tensions to rise considerably. The Caucasus and Central Asia are other hot spots,\u00a0as is the Black Sea<\/a>\u00a0where attempts continue to sabotage the TurkStream pipeline that transports gas from Russia to Turkiye and onwards to southeastern Europe.<\/p>\n

Upon the announcement that Finland and Sweden would join NATO, former Secretary General of the military bloc Anders Fogh Rasmussen\u00a0proclaimed<\/a>\u00a0it was a strategic victory because \u201cIf we wish, we can block all entry and exit to Russia through St. Petersburg\u201d.<\/p>\n

The caveat to Rasmussen\u2019s pronouncement is that such an effort could very well lead to open war. Is the West crazy enough to try?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nTue, 11\/28\/2023 – 02:00<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bhttps:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/geopolitical\/west-inching-closer-more-insanity-baltic-sea<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n

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