{"id":1441006,"date":"2023-11-28T15:16:18","date_gmt":"2023-11-28T20:16:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1441006"},"modified":"2023-11-28T15:16:18","modified_gmt":"2023-11-28T20:16:18","slug":"massive-downward-revisions-for-conference-board-confidence-leave-present-situation-at-april-2021-lows","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/massive-downward-revisions-for-conference-board-confidence-leave-present-situation-at-april-2021-lows\/1441006\/","title":{"rendered":"Massive Downward Revisions For Conference Board Confidence Leave ‘Present Situation’ At April 2021 Lows"},"content":{"rendered":"

Massive Downward Revisions For Conference Board Confidence Leave ‘Present Situation’ At April 2021 Lows <\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Thanks to a massive downward revision in October, the November Conference Board Consumer Confidence index ‘improved’.<\/p>\n

October headline revised down<\/strong> from 102.6 to 99.1 (the weakest since Jul 2022), and November headline printed 102.0 (up notably from the downwardly revised data).<\/p>\n

October Present Situation revised down <\/strong>from 143.1 to 138.6, and November present situation printed 138.2 (down from the downward revision to the lowest since April 2021<\/strong>)<\/p>\n

October Expectations revised down <\/strong>from 75.6 to 72.7, and November Expectations printed 77.8 (notably higher than the downward revision).<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

The 3.5pts downward revision for the headline print is the largest since Feb 2022…<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Despite this month\u2019s improvement, the Expectations Index remains below 80 for a third consecutive month – a level that historically signals a recession within the next year. <\/strong><\/p>\n

While consumer fears of an impending recession abated slightly – to the lowest levels seen this year – around two-thirds of consumers surveyed in November still perceive a recession to be \u201csomewhat\u201d or \u201cvery likely\u201d to occur over the next 12 months.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

This is consistent with the short and shallow recession we anticipate in the first half of 2024<\/strong>, according to Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board.<\/a><\/p>\n

November\u2019s increase (from dramatically lower revised data in October) in consumer confidence was concentrated primarily among householders aged 55 and up; by contrast, confidence among householders aged 35-54 declined slightly. <\/em><\/p>\n

General improvements were seen across the spectrum of income groups surveyed in November. <\/em><\/p>\n

Nonetheless, write-in responses revealed consumers remain preoccupied with rising prices in general, followed by war\/conflicts and higher interest rates.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

The labor market indicators are trending worse – now at the weakest since April 2021…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Average 12-month inflation expectations receded back to 5.7% after a one-month uptick to 5.9%, dramatically divergent from UMich inflation expectations’ spike…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Buying plans for autos, homes, and big-ticket appliances trended downward on a six-month basis <\/strong>– perhaps reflecting the impact of elevated interest rates.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Finally, some food for thought…<\/p>\n

How do you revise consumer confidence down? Do you ask them again and they tell you, “You know what, I wasn’t feeling it as much as I thought I was”<\/p>\n

\u2014 Zebra Cat (@ZebraCat20) November 28, 2023<\/a><\/p>\n

Is Bidenomics all simply driven by ‘seasonal adjustments’ and historical revisions?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nTue, 11\/28\/2023 – 10:16<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bhttps:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/markets\/massive-downward-revisions-conference-board-confidence-leave-present-situation-april-2021<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Massive Downward Revisions For Conference Board Confidence Leave ‘Present Situation’ At April 2021 Lows Thanks to a massive downward revision in October, the November Conference…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1441006","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1441006","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1441006"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1441006\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1441006"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1441006"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1441006"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}