{"id":1446368,"date":"2023-12-28T21:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-12-29T02:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1446368"},"modified":"2023-12-28T21:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-12-29T02:00:00","slug":"crude-crypto-credit-crumble-as-sp-nears-record-high","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/crude-crypto-credit-crumble-as-sp-nears-record-high\/1446368\/","title":{"rendered":"Crude, Crypto, & Credit Crumble As S&P Nears Record High"},"content":{"rendered":"

Crude, Crypto, & Credit Crumble As S&P Nears Record High<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

The penultimate trading day of the year was ‘mixed’ with Small Cap stocks and Treasury Bonds down; The dollar and The Dow up; and crypto, credit, and crude all falling as what little macro data there was disappointed (wholesale inventories declined for the 9th month in a row; claims rising more than expected and pending home sales weaker than expected).<\/p>\n

March rate-cut odds remain around 85-90% with around 160bps of rate-cuts priced-in still for 2024.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat we are seeing now is a bond carnival,\u201d <\/strong>said\u00a0Hideo Shimomura, a senior portfolio manager at Fivestar Asset Management Co. in Tokyo.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u201cBond investors have been hibernating and now I feel that their explosive desire is to come out of their lair.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

Small Caps were the day’s biggest losers as yields spiked with The Dow outperforming. But a late-day sell-off spoiled the party for the S&P 500 (but The Dow ended just green)…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

The S&P traded up to 4793 intraday (just shy of the closing high of 4796), but a late-day selloff tested unchanged and managed to close just green…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

The Dow and S&P are up for 13 of the last 15 days and the S&P 500 is on track for its 9th straight green week – the longest winning streak in 20 years.<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

The last time the S&P 500 did a 10-week streak was in 1985.<\/strong><\/p>\n

‘Most Shorted’ stocks squeezed higher once again at the open but were sold almost constantly after that…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

MAG7 stocks were sold late-on but ended green as a basket…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Credit markets disagreed with equities today – for a recent change – with HYG (HY Corporate bond ETF) tumbling<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Treasuries were sold today, hurt by an ugly tail for the 7Y auction, but remain lower on the holiday shortened week. A late-day buying program in bonds reduced the pain and left the belly underperforming (5Y +5bps, 2Y and 30Y +3bps)…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

The world\u2019s debt market is on track to post its biggest two-month gain on record<\/strong> as traders ramp up expectations that central banks everywhere will slash interest rates next year.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Total Return Index has risen nearly 10% over November and December, its best two-month run in data going back to 1990.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe ferocity of the bond market rally has really augmented the total returns for investors,\u201d said\u00a0Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in Singapore. <\/em><\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s a feeling markets are signaling we\u2019re heading half-way toward easy monetary policy again.\u201d<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The dollar rallied back from yesterday’s slump, erasing around half of that decline today…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Ethereum managed to cling to green today, but was well off its overnight highs by the end of the US session…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Bitcoin, however, was pummeled back below $42,500 before finding support…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Which combined means that ETH\/BTC has broken the key resistance<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Spot Gold hit $2088 highs overnight but faded all day with a good kick from Benoit as Europe opened…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Oil prices extended yesterday’s losses with WTI breaking down to a $71 handle – the lowest in a week…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Finally, as Bloomberg’s Vincent Cignarella notes, the S&P is in the 3rd wave of the 5-wave Elliott theory which is typically its most powerful and extended. Upon completion, the index will enter the 4th wave, a correction.<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

How far is anyone’s guess but the last one which began in January of 2022 lasted around 10 months for a 20-25% drop.<\/strong><\/p>\n

While a correction seems a certainty, there\u2019s plenty of time left to devise a risk-off strategy of your choosing. The chart suggests the index may still climb above 4900 – a new record high – before rolling over.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nThu, 12\/28\/2023 – 16:00<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bhttps:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/markets\/crude-crypto-credit-crumble-sp-nears-record-high<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Crude, Crypto, & Credit Crumble As S&P Nears Record High The penultimate trading day of the year was ‘mixed’ with Small Cap stocks and Treasury…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1446368","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1446368","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1446368"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1446368\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1446368"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1446368"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1446368"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}