{"id":1447686,"date":"2024-01-04T15:45:00","date_gmt":"2024-01-04T20:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1447686"},"modified":"2024-01-04T15:45:00","modified_gmt":"2024-01-04T20:45:00","slug":"claims-data-confirm-receding-recession-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/claims-data-confirm-receding-recession-risk\/1447686\/","title":{"rendered":"Claims Data Confirm Receding Recession Risk"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span class=\"field field--name-title field--type-string field--label-hidden\">Claims Data Confirm Receding Recession Risk<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"clearfix text-formatted field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field__item\">\n<p><em>Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Claims data just released imply an economy with few signs of an imminent recession. <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The rise in yields is consistent with this outlook, although the Fed\u2019s\u00a0altered reaction function\u00a0remains most pivotal for them.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The information content in claims comes from looking at a diffusion of them state by state.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>When a rising percentage of states are seeing their claims \u2013 initial or continuing \u2013 notably weaken on an annual basis, this is very a reliable sign of an imminent recession.<\/p>\n<p>This cycle, state claims were an indication that a downturn was on its way, but <strong>the measure has now decisively fallen back below the recession threshold<\/strong> &#8212; similarly for continuing claims.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cms.zerohedge.com\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/2024-01-04_07-13-03.jpg?itok=5sLbrOXA\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Claims are a more reliable indicator of job market health than JOLTS (which came out on Wednesday), which has a very low\u00a0response rate and sample size. <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The inflection lower in claims also supports a positive skew to Friday\u2019s payrolls data.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Recession risk is likely to mount as the year wears on<\/strong>, as the cumulative impact of higher rates\u00a0increasingly bites.<\/p>\n<p>But today\u2019s data is another evidential bit of the jigsaw that recession risk is retreating for now.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>      <span class=\"field field--name-uid field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden\"><a title=\"View user profile.\" href=\"https:\/\/cms.zerohedge.com\/users\/tyler-durden\" class=\"username\">Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span><br \/>\n<span class=\"field field--name-created field--type-created field--label-hidden\">Thu, 01\/04\/2024 &#8211; 10:45<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u200b<a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/markets\/claims-data-confirm-receding-recession-risk\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/markets\/claims-data-confirm-receding-recession-risk<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Claims Data Confirm Receding Recession Risk Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist, Claims data just released imply an economy with few signs of an&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1447686","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1447686","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1447686"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1447686\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1447686"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1447686"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1447686"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}