{"id":1447743,"date":"2024-01-04T21:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-01-05T02:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1447743"},"modified":"2024-01-04T21:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-01-05T02:00:00","slug":"goldilocks-gored-by-growth-gains-bitcoin-bounces-as-rate-cut-hopes-hammered","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/goldilocks-gored-by-growth-gains-bitcoin-bounces-as-rate-cut-hopes-hammered\/1447743\/","title":{"rendered":"‘Goldilocks’ Gored By Growth Gains; Bitcoin Bounces As Rate-Cut Hopes Hammered"},"content":{"rendered":"

‘Goldilocks’ Gored By Growth Gains; Bitcoin Bounces As Rate-Cut Hopes Hammered<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Strong jobs data <\/strong>(ADP jobs added more than expected, slowing wage growth, and initial jobless claims at 2023 lows) and strong Services economy survey data<\/strong> (PMI at 5 month highs) prompted higher Treasury yields today, and sent rate-hike expectations tumbling for March<\/strong>…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

In the words of one veteran trader (who happens to be long and wrong), “the growth’s just too damn hot… <\/strong>The Fed can’t stand by as the market runs wild on rate-cut hopes.”<\/em> (edited for NSFW words)<\/p>\n

And rate-cut expectations for 2024 have tumbled overall…<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

And yields surged back to (or above) yesterday’s highs (curve basically all up around 6-7bps today). It’s been an ugly week for bonds to start 2024…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

As the 10Y Yield surged back up to 4.00% (and stalled again)…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

The 10Y yields has broken back above its recent downtrend line…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

And the longest-duration stocks suffered (MAG7 has erased all of December’s gains)…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

And as goes MAG7, so goes the market (for now) as the 492 ain’t helping. Nasdaq was the day’s biggest loser while The Dow managed very small gains. A late-day slump ($4BN MoC to sell), wiped off any lipstick left on any pigs…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Nasdaq is down 5 days in a row – the longest losing streak since Dec 2022.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Small Caps (Russell 2000) and Big-Tech (Nasdaq) are down around 3.5% to start the year…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

The S&P is down almost 2% – the worst start to a year since 2008…<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

The 200bps underperformance of Nasdaq relative to the S&P 500 in the last 5 days is among the largest in the last two years…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

And it’s not just an AI thing as AI-at-risk names are down just as much in 2024 so far…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Anti-Obesity drug names are outperforming though in 2024 so far…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Value stocks have outperformed growth for the last few weeks, breaking the downtrend…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

After yesterday’s pukefest to $41k (on nothing), Bitcoin ripped back up to $44k today as the spot ETF approval seems imminent-erer…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

The dollar rallied for the 5th straight day <\/strong>(its longest win streak since September), rallying back during the European session after Asian weakness. This is the best start to a year for the dollar since 2005.<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Oddly – again – with ‘growth’ fears sparking higher yields, lower rate-cut hopes, oil prices… tumbled. The driver was major inventory builds in gasoline and distillates (because the middle east is still a shit-show). WTI came within a tick of $74 intraday overnight before dropping back to almost a $70 handle before bouncing back…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Spot Gold managed very modest gains on the day, holding above $2040…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Finally, financial conditions are starting to tighten<\/strong> (a little for now, but that’s a start)…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

And remember The Fed Minutes specifically pushed back against<\/a> too much exuberance in financial markets:<\/p>\n

\u201cMany participants remarked that an easing in financial conditions beyond what is appropriate could make it more difficult for the Committee to reach its inflation goal.\u201d<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

So, be careful what you wish for – the porridge is too hot for Goldilocks here and if tomorrow’s payrolls print is ‘hot’, hopes and dreams of ‘just right’ rate-cuts in 2024 will be dashed on the hungry chins of ravenous bears.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nThu, 01\/04\/2024 – 16:00<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bhttps:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/markets\/goldilocks-gored-growth-gains-bitcoin-bounces-rate-cut-hopes-hammered<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

‘Goldilocks’ Gored By Growth Gains; Bitcoin Bounces As Rate-Cut Hopes Hammered Strong jobs data (ADP jobs added more than expected, slowing wage growth, and initial…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1447743","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/pbimBl-64CH","jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1447743","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1447743"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1447743\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1447743"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1447743"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1447743"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}