{"id":1451118,"date":"2024-01-17T02:22:03","date_gmt":"2024-01-17T07:22:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1451118"},"modified":"2024-01-17T02:22:03","modified_gmt":"2024-01-17T07:22:03","slug":"china-population-plunges-with-lowest-birth-rate-in-74-years-as-gdp-miraculously-tops-target-amid-strong-data-dump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/china-population-plunges-with-lowest-birth-rate-in-74-years-as-gdp-miraculously-tops-target-amid-strong-data-dump\/1451118\/","title":{"rendered":"China Population Plunges With Lowest Birth Rate In 74 Years As GDP Miraculously Tops Target Amid Strong Data Dump"},"content":{"rendered":"

China Population Plunges With Lowest Birth Rate In 74 Years As GDP Miraculously Tops Target Amid Strong Data Dump<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Confirming Premier Li’s earlier leak<\/a>, China’s economy grew at 5.2% YoY – comfortably and miraculously beating the all-knowing official target of ‘around 5%’ (which is the lowest target in decades), as industrial production and investment climbed in the final stretch of the year.<\/p>\n

However, thew GDP print at +5.2% was weaker than the +5.3% consensus estimate.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

While GDP accelerated, other indicators were mixed in the final month of 2023:<\/p>\n

Industrial output\u00a0<\/strong>rose 6.8% in December from a year ago, better <\/strong>than a 6.6% increase projected by economists<\/p>\n

Retail sales<\/strong>\u00a0grew 7.4%, weaker\/worse <\/strong>than the forecast for an 8% gain<\/p>\n

Fixed-asset investment<\/strong>\u00a0climbed 3% in the year, slightly better <\/strong>than a predicted 2.9% rise<\/p>\n

The\u00a0urban jobless rate<\/strong>\u00a0was 5.1% last month, up\/worse<\/strong> from 5% in November<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cChina\u2019s economy withstood external pressures and overcame domestic challenges to rebound and improve in 2023,\u201d <\/strong><\/em>the NBS said in a statement accompanying the data.<\/p>\n

The agency warned, though, that economic development \u201cstill faces some difficulties and challenges.\u201d<\/p>\n

China released its jobless rate among young people<\/strong> (which it decided to stop issuing once it hit a record high above 20%) – but in the wonderfully Chinese way, the new series (at 14.9%) is entirely incomparable as it ‘excludes students’.<\/strong><\/p>\n

A bigger problem for liquidity-hypers was that Li explicitly pointed out that China\u2019s growth rate last year – a rise from the figure of 3% in 2022 when the country was hit by its arcane Zero-COVID policies – was achieved without resorting to \u201cmassive stimulus\u201d and the economy was making \u201csteady progress\u201d.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cWe did not seek short-term growth while accumulating long-term risks, rather we focused on strengthening the internal drivers,\u201d\u00a0he said.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u201cJust as a healthy person often has a strong immune system, the Chinese economy can handle ups and downs in its performance. The overall trend of long-term growth will not change.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

The biggest threat to the economy remains the housing sector and China’s property crisis is not getting any better at all <\/strong>as the number of cities seeing home price increases continues to collapse…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Finally, China\u2019s population shrank faster last year, falling by 2 million people. <\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

The 9 million births was the lowest total since at least the start of the People\u2019s Republic of China in 1949,<\/strong> and 11 million people died.<\/p>\n

That number was probably boosted by the COVID pandemic, but there\u2019s no detail in today\u2019s data about cause of death.<\/p>\n

And that’s a big problem – because you can’t print people… and dependents are soaring.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nTue, 01\/16\/2024 – 21:22<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bRead More<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

China Population Plunges With Lowest Birth Rate In 74 Years As GDP Miraculously Tops Target Amid Strong Data Dump Confirming Premier Li’s earlier leak, China’s…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1451118","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1451118","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1451118"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1451118\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1451118"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1451118"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1451118"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}