{"id":1453618,"date":"2024-01-27T15:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-01-27T20:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1453618"},"modified":"2024-01-27T15:30:00","modified_gmt":"2024-01-27T20:30:00","slug":"god-help-us-in-the-next-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/god-help-us-in-the-next-crisis\/1453618\/","title":{"rendered":"“God Help Us In The Next Crisis”"},"content":{"rendered":"

“God Help Us In The Next Crisis”<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

Friend of\u00a0Fringe Finance\u00a0<\/em>Lawrence Lepard released his most recent investor letter this week. He gets little coverage in the mainstream media, which, in my opinion, makes him someone worth listening to twice as closely.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Larry was kind enough to allow me to share his thoughts heading into Q4 2023. The letter has been edited ever-so-slightly for formatting, grammar and visuals.<\/p>\n

This is the most recent investor letter from my good friend Lawrence Lepard, which contains a detailed writeup on the following and will be broken up into two parts:<\/p>\n

2023 Year in Review\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

The FED and Treasury Blink in Q4\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Inflation\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Gold and Bitcoin Got the Memo\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

US Fiscal Position Not Improving\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Catalysts for a Full Fed Pivot\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

When The Fed Pivots, We Get Paid\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Gold\u2019s Outlook Is Improving\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Part 2 of this letter can be found here<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

2023 YEAR IN REVIEW\u00a0<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Here are the major developments of 2023:\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u2022\u00a0No Recession \u2013\u00a0<\/strong>the rapid rate hikes of 2022 (basically from zero to 4.33% at year-end 2022) did\u00a0 not have the negative impact that we expected on the economy in 2023. \u201cFiscal Dominance\u201d \/\u00a0 \u201cBidenomics\u201d (fiscal spending of $6.2 Trillion, not far off the COVID high of $7.2 Trillion) more\u00a0 than offset the Fed\u2019s hawkishness as GDP growth was solid (+2.8%) and unemployment\u00a0 remained low (3.7%). There was very little spending restraint this year with continued \u201ccan\u00a0 kicking\u201d on budget decisions ongoing until perhaps after the election.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u2022\u00a0Stock Market Nears Record High \u2013\u00a0<\/strong>this one really surprised us. Despite the massive increase in interest rates, the S&P 500 rallied +26 % ending just shy of its January 3, 2022 all-time high.\u00a0 Our view is the US stock market is expensive and at risk of a major decline. Notice in the chart\u00a0 below the current 19.5x PEx with 10 year UST yields at 3.9%. This compares to the October\u00a0 2007 (just prior to 2008 crash) 15.1x PEx when treasury yields were at 4.7%. Recall that\u00a0 following the 2000 bubble and the 2007 peak, the S& P500 declined 49% and 57%, respectively.\u00a0<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Most of the S&P 500 gains were in the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d large tech stocks, each of which was up\u00a0 between 48%-239%! It\u2019s reminiscent of the early 1970s and the concentration of market\u00a0 capitalization in \u201cThe Nifty Fifty\u201d stocks back then. As the chart below shows, the Nifty Fifty did not end well, and we suspect the Mag 7 will have a similar fate.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2022\u00a0Silicon Valley Bank\u00a0<\/strong>\u2013 in March 2023, two of the largest bank failures in US history transpired.\u00a0 We covered this in our Q1 report. At the time, the US banking system was on the verge of a run\u00a0 as Treasury Secretary Yellen flip flopped several times on the possibility of guaranteeing the\u00a0 entire $17.6 Trillion US deposit base. Instead, the government violated the Dodd Frank law and\u00a0 created a new funding mechanism the BTFP1\u00a0which rapidly grew to $80 Billion, and it continues\u00a0 to grow to this day — increasing significantly in the past several months to $140 Billion. It is set to expire (require repayment) in March of 2024. We will believe it when we see it.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

This credit event was very severe and shows how shaky the system is and how the Fed and\u00a0 Treasury will always provide a financial liquidity \u201cput\u201d (print money) for financial players and\u00a0 banks in times of trouble.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

The BTFP was only the small visible part of the bail out. Pam Martens at \u201cWall Street on Parade\u201d highlighted that the real bail out came via the Federal Home Loan Bank as it provided over $1\u00a0 Trillion of liquidity to the banking system in March 2023, $100 billion more than provided in the\u00a0 GFC of 2008.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u2022\u00a0Geopolitics\u00a0<\/strong>\u2013 generally the markets have ignored (perhaps at their own peril) various geopolitical\u00a0 hot buttons \u2013the ongoing Ukraine war, the growing unification of the BRICs bloc, the Israel Hamas war, or even the Red Sea happenings as the Houthis (likely backed by Iran\/Russia)\u00a0 continue to create havoc in the Freight markets. Some speculate that this is the work of others\u00a0 trying to draw the US into the war in support of Israel vs. Iran.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u2022\u00a0US Politics<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 the polarization of politics continued, with more \u201ccan-kicking\u201d budget resolutions and the fight over the Speakership\/removal of Kevin McCarthy. As far as the upcoming 2024 election, perhaps it\u2019s apathy or just how polarizing politics are, but it seems to us that very few people want to discuss it. The most important political takeaway for us is that while political news will certainly grow this spring and summer, the outcome is unlikely to affect the fiscal spending trajectory, regardless of which party wins. Debt is debt, and math is math.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udd25 50% OFF ALL SUBSCRIPTIONS:<\/strong>\u00a0Subscribe and\u00a0get 50% off and no price hikes for as long as you wish to be a subscriber<\/a>.<\/p>\n

THE FED (AND TREASURY) BLINK\u00a0<\/strong><\/h3>\n

We start the discussion of current events by referring you to our Q3 report. In that report, we presented how the US Government Fiscal doom loop was getting\u00a0 worse and how mathematically US Federal borrowings were crowding out the debt markets – sending\u00a0 interest rates higher.<\/p>\n

The nearly parabolic growth in US Federal interest costs is making the deficit worse\u00a0 and without monetary accommodation, we suggested that the debt and equity markets were headed for\u00a0 real trouble. Lyn Alden\u2019s chart (below) points out that it is only a matter of time before the Fed will be\u00a0 forced to grow its balance sheet again (print money). In a heavily indebted system, the supply of money\u00a0 needs to continually grow or the debt becomes unserviceable.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

The Fed began to blink in Q4. This is enormously important and supports our thesis that the Fed and\u00a0 Treasury have no choice but to loosen monetary conditions (further debase the currency) in order to\u00a0 prevent market dysfunction. Let\u2019s review what happened.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The US 10 Year Treasury Bond yield broke a technically important level (4.368%) on September 20,\u00a0 2023 and quickly rose to 5.00%. This rate increase drove the S&P 500 down 7% in a matter of weeks, and down 11% from the recent peak. Both events set off alarm bells at the Fed and the Treasury.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

The move in the US 10-year yield from September 1 to mid-October was dramatic, a 20% increase in the\u00a0 yield in roughly 6 weeks. We recall the vibe at this time, and it reminded us of the UK Gilt Crisis in the\u00a0 Fall of 2022 as UK bond yields began to spike.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Fed quickly came with the fire trucks. In rapid succession, we got the following \u201cdovish\u201d comments\u00a0 out of no less than 8 Federal Reserve Governors:\u00a0<\/p>\n

Fed\u2019s Williams: central bank may be done with rate rises.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Bloomberg 9\/29\/2023\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fed\u2019s Logan: higher yields may mean less need to raise rates.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Bloomberg, 10\/9\/23\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fed\u2019s Daly: rise in bond yields may substitute for a rate hike.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Bloomberg, 10\/10\/23<\/strong><\/p>\n

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Ralph Bostic reiterated that he doesn\u2019t think policymakers\u00a0 need to raise interest rates any further and that policy is restrictive enough to bring inflation back to their\u00a0 2% goal. \u201cI think that our policy rate is at a sufficiently restrictive position to get inflation down to 2%.\u201d\u00a0 Bostic said Tuesday during a conversation held at the annual convention for the American Bankers\u00a0 Association. \u201cI actually do not think that we need to increase rates anymore\u201d.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Bloomberg 10\/10\/23\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cWe are in a sensitive period of risk management, where we have to balance the risk of not having\u00a0 tightened enough, against the risk of policy being too restrictive\u201d Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said,\u00a0 nodding to the rise in US Treasury yields and the need for the central bank to \u201cproceed carefully\u201d with\u00a0 any further increases in the benchmark federal funds rate.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Reuters 10\/10\/23\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted it is \u201cpossible\u201d that further rate hikes may not be required.<\/p>\n

Reuters 10\/11\/23\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Wednesday said higher market interest rates may\u00a0 help the Fed slow inflation and let the central bank \u201cwatch and see\u201d if its own policy rate needs to rise\u00a0 again or not. Waller, who has been among the most vocal advocates for higher interest rates to fight\u00a0 inflation, said price data seem to now be moving back towards the Fed\u2019s 2% target, with financial markets\u00a0 adding further credit tightening on their own.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Reuters 10\/11\/23\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fed\u2019s Harker says rate hikes likely over amid ongoing disinflation.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Reuters 10\/13\/23\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fed\u2019s Lorie Logan: Pump the brakes on quantitative tightening.\u00a0<\/p>\n

American Banker 1\/8\/24\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

(h\/t Luke Gromen, FFTT for summarizing these Fed comments)\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Based upon the number and consistency of these comments, we assume that it was a three-alarm fire that\u00a0 the Fed had detected in the bond market, as the Bond Volatility Move Index ramped up to levels which\u00a0 indicate severe stress. Several analysts have pointed out that bonds are now more volatile than gold.\u00a0 This is not supposed to happen.\u00a0<\/p>\n

But wait, there is more: The Fed Governors jawboning rates lower on the anticipation of no further rate\u00a0 increases, and possible rate cuts, was just the first act in a three-act play.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Act II opened up with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen upon the release of the Treasury Borrowing\u00a0 Advisory Committee (TBAC) report on November 1, 2023. This report comments on the market for US\u00a0 Treasury securities and estimates the amount and nature of the debt sales that the US Federal Government\u00a0 will conduct in order to fund its debt and deficits.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

The TBAC report is highly technical with a lot of inside macro baseball. But several things in this most\u00a0 recent report stood out:\u00a0<\/p>\n

First, a much larger percentage of the debt is now being bought by US hedge funds and others\u00a0 who are participating in the \u201cbasis trade\u201d.2\u00a0<\/p>\n

Second, the Treasury indicated that they intend to fund a much larger proportion of the debt via\u00a0 short term bills and notes as opposed to longer term bonds. This implies: (i) that the Treasury is\u00a0 having a hard time finding demand for longer term bonds (it is, we will discuss a recent 30-year\u00a0 auction below); and (ii), the market interprets the tilt toward shorter term notes to be an indication\u00a0 that the Treasury expects short duration yields to decrease soon. Markets viewed this as a sign\u00a0 of more monetary accommodation coming soon.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Treasury has been worried about some weak government bond auctions in Q4 when the Bid to Cover\u00a0 was only 2.24x, much lighter demand than usual. Given this anemic demand, primary dealers (i.e., Wall\u00a0 Street banks) were forced to buy 25% of the bonds auctioned (vs. in normal times perhaps they only have\u00a0 to buy 10-15%). Many have realized that bonds are not a great investment in an inflationary world, where\u00a0 the US money supply has grown at 7% per year over the last 50 years, on average. So, we can debate\u00a0 whether CPI is < 3% or not, but the reality is \u2013 debasement is running at 7% on average! Higher interest\u00a0 rates will be needed to stimulate demand for US Treasuries. Watch for weak bond auctions as a major\u00a0 risk factor to global markets over the next few years.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The basis trade mentioned above is also a risk that bears watching given it\u2019s a small cadre of highly\u00a0 levered hedge funds playing this arbitrage game of shorting US Treasury Futures while buying US\u00a0 Treasury on-the-run bonds. Given the > 50x leverage employed, there is real risk if this basis trade went\u00a0 afoul. Recall, Long Term Capital Management was a \u201ccan\u2019t miss\u201d back in 1998, until it wasn\u2019t. But, we\u00a0 are dealing with much larger sums of capital than LTCM\u2019s $1bn of equity levered 100x. As you can see\u00a0 in the following chart, there appears to be $1 Trillion of Levered Short US Treasury Futures positions.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Note in the above chart, as rates were rising in 2019\/2020, this same levered basis trade was present and\u00a0 coincided with the September 2019 Repo rate blowout which led to the original Powell pivot.\u00a0 Furthermore, several hedge funds at that time were rumored to be insolvent and received emergency Fed\u00a0 swap lines. It would not shock us to see this movie come to a theater near you again soon.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Act III began with the Federal Reserve meeting on December 13, 2023. As expected, they held the Fed\u00a0 Funds policy rate constant at 5.25%, but very importantly they adjusted the \u201cdot plot\u201d of expected future\u00a0 rate levels to reflect that a majority of the Fed Governors now believe the Fed will be cutting rates next\u00a0 year. Perhaps even more importantly, the following exchange took place in the Q&A session with Fed\u00a0 Chair Powell:\u00a0<\/p>\n

Jennifer Schonberger of Yahoo Finance<\/strong>: You said back in July that you needed to start cutting\u00a0 rates before getting to 2% inflation. As you mentioned PCE inflation is now running at 3.5% on\u00a0 core. On a six-month annual basis, core PCE is running at 2.5%. Though when you look at\u00a0 supercore and shelter, they are, of course, stickier. So, when looking in the different components\u00a0 of the data, how much closer do you have to get to 2% percent before you consider cutting rates?\u00a0<\/p>\n

Chair Powell<\/strong>: the reason you wouldn\u2019t wait to get to 2% to cut rates is that policy would be too\u00a0 late\u2026 you\u2019d want to be reducing restriction on the economy\u00a0well before\u00a0<\/strong>(EMA emphasis added) 2%…..so you don\u2019t overshoot, if we think of restrictive policy as weighing on economic activity.\u00a0 It takes a while for policy to get into the economy, affect economic activity, and affect inflation.\u00a0<\/p>\n

That, ladies and gentlemen is the \u201cPowell pivot\u201d (notably the second one, since he also pivoted in 2019).\u00a0 Chair Powell is looking less like Paul Volcker and more like Arthur Burns.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Chair of the Federal Reserve just told us that they will not wait for PCE to hit 2% before beginning\u00a0 to cut interest rates and loosen monetary policy. As we predicted, the Fed has once again changed the\u00a0 narrative to suit their purpose. And let\u2019s be clear, their purpose is to keep the bond and stock markets\u00a0 functioning well. So, we can add \u201chigher for longer\u201d to the prior Fed mis-directions of:\u00a0<\/p>\n

Inflation is too low.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Inflation is transitory.\u00a0<\/p>\n

We are not even thinking about thinking about raising rates.\u00a0<\/p>\n

We will stay higher for longer to make sure inflation is under control.\u00a0<\/p>\n

As we have said before, they have a tiger by the tail and are swerving between the two extremes of severe\u00a0 inflation and severe deflation. Given policy lags, they are making a mess of it.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

All we can say is good luck, particularly when looking at the next chart below. Notice the parabolic\u00a0 increase in US Treasury issuance since 2009. In one snapshot here, we can see just how much the\u00a0 government not only has to finance its own increasing government expenditures, but also the back door\u00a0 assistance it has increasingly needed to provide over the past 14 years to support this levered system we\u00a0 have. This is only going to compound even more rapidly, and God help us in the next crisis. Again, debt\u00a0is debt and math is math.\u00a0<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

INFLATION<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The level of reported PCE inflation has come down substantially (see chart below). Don\u2019t get us started on whether these numbers are accurate or not, just remember that this is the gauge which the Fed uses.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

In essence, the Fed Chair is implying that inflation taming has been good enough for Government work.\u00a0 And perhaps it is. Some think inflation will continue to fall and could perhaps even go negative \u2013 particularly as owner\u2019s equivalent rent is ~35% of CPI and its impact is lagged by nearly a year (OER is\u00a0 down over the past year). Anything is possible in this out-of-control system. However, inflation only\u00a0 goes negative if we have a system wide deflationary collapse which will surely lead to record monetary\u00a0 accommodation. The highly irresponsible 2002 \u201cHelicopter Money\u201d speech by Bernanke on preventing\u00a0 deflation indicated the Fed will never let deflation occur. The system would collapse. We are not sure\u00a0 of the path of the next Fed printing, or timing, but we can clearly see the issue. The odds are good that\u00a0 the next wave of accommodation leads to a resurgence of inflation, similar to the 1970\u2019s.\u00a0<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Our view is that we have left the deflationary years of 1980 to 2020 behind and that in March of 2020\u00a0 with the US 10-Year bond yielding only 54 basis points, we achieved peak deflation. We now live in an\u00a0 inflationary world until these debt issues are resolved. Or, said another way the only way we get deflation\u00a0 is if the Fed and other monetary authorities allow a deflationary collapse. (not impossible, but unlikely).<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Part 2 of this letter can be found here<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

QTR\u2019s Disclaimer<\/strong><\/em>:<\/strong>\u00a0I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR, reprinted under a Creative Commons license or with the permission of the author. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade\/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. These positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates.\u00a0I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can\u2019t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it\u2019s that important.<\/em><\/p>\n

Larry\u2019s Disclaimer<\/strong><\/em>:\u00a0These presentation materials shall not be construed as an offer to purchase or sell, or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell, any\u00a0 securities or services. Any such offering may only be made at the time a qualified investor receives from EMA formal materials describing an\u00a0 offering plus related subscription documentation (\u201coffering materials\u201d). In the case of any inconsistency between the information in this\u00a0 presentation and any such offering materials, including an offering memorandum, the offering materials shall control.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Securities shall not be offered or sold in any jurisdiction in which such offer or sale would be unlawful unless the requirements of the applicable\u00a0 laws of such jurisdiction have been satisfied. Any decision to invest in securities must be based solely upon the information set forth in the\u00a0 applicable offering materials, which should be read carefully by prospective investors prior to investing. An investment in EMA not suitable or\u00a0 desirable for all investors; investors may lose all or a portion of the capital invested. Investors may be required to bear the financial risks of an\u00a0 investment for an indefinite period of time. Investors and prospective investors are urged to consult with their own legal, financial and tax\u00a0 advisors before making any investment.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

The statements contained in this presentation are made as of the date printed on the cover, and access to this presentation at any given time\u00a0 shall not give rise to any implication that there has been no change in the facts and circumstances set forth in this presentation since that date.\u00a0 These presentation materials may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of US securities laws. The forward-looking\u00a0 statements are based on EMA\u2019s beliefs, assumptions and expectations of its future performance, taking into account all information currently\u00a0 available to it, and can change as a result of known (and unknown) risks, uncertainties and other unpredictable factors. No representations or\u00a0 warranties are made as to the accuracy of such forward-looking statements. EMA does not undertake any obligation to update any forward\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

looking statements to reflect circumstances or events that occur after the date on which such statements were made. Historical data and\u00a0 other information contained herein, including information obtained from third-party sources, are believed to be reliable but no representation\u00a0 is made to its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any specific purpose.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

No representation is being made that any investment will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Past performance is\u00a0 not indicative of future results. This report is prepared for the exclusive use of EMA investors and other persons that EMA has determined\u00a0 should receive these presentation materials. This presentation may not be reproduced, distributed or disclosed without the express permission\u00a0 of EMA.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nSat, 01\/27\/2024 – 10:30<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bRead More<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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