{"id":1454997,"date":"2024-02-02T14:09:36","date_gmt":"2024-02-02T19:09:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1454997"},"modified":"2024-02-02T14:09:36","modified_gmt":"2024-02-02T19:09:36","slug":"the-fed-has-to-pay-attention-to-this-simply-stunning-payrolls-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/the-fed-has-to-pay-attention-to-this-simply-stunning-payrolls-report\/1454997\/","title":{"rendered":"“The Fed Has To Pay Attention” To This ‘Simply Stunning’ Payrolls Report"},"content":{"rendered":"

“The Fed Has To Pay Attention” To This ‘Simply Stunning’ Payrolls Report<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

A simply stunning jobs report!<\/p>\n

The highest estimate for the Establishment number was 300k<\/strong>\u00a0and the report beat that high estimate, quite handily, coming in at 353k!<\/p>\n

Not only that, but we\u00a0broke a string of downward revisions, by adding 126k in total to the past 2 reports<\/strong>, with the bulk of that revision for the December report! Back to back months over 300k is impressive and is maybe why confidence numbers have been so high?<\/p>\n

Simply a stunning number of jobs created<\/strong>\u00a0(according to the Establishment survey).<\/p>\n

Even\u00a0the Household survey was barely negative<\/strong>\u00a0(Establishment shows 700k job gains past 2 months, while Household is at -700k) making this report more consistent than prior reports.<\/p>\n

Unemployment ticked down, but only because labor participation shrunk by 0.1% – something I don\u2019t like to see, but not a major move.<\/p>\n

One \u201coutlier<\/strong>\u201d if you can call it that on this report, is\u00a0that average hours worked declined from 34.3 to 34.1<\/strong>, which is viewed as a sign of weakness. But that weakness isn\u2019t anywhere else in this report.<\/p>\n

Hourly earnings<\/strong>\u00a0are great if you get earnings! 0.6% on the month, which is the\u00a0highest since March 2022!<\/strong>\u00a0If you are worried about inflation, and I am, that is a mildly disturbing statistic. \u00a0Last month\u2019s annual number was revised up to 4.3% and this month\u2019s annual number topped that at 4.5%! That takes us back to September levels and unwinds a trend of declines.\u00a0The Fed has to pay attention to this!<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

If you believe the numbers, and I\u2019m sure I\u2019m not the only person skeptical about the numbers, not only is March completely off the table, the \u201cpivot\u201d talk may have to be walked back.<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

While the Fed said \u201cdata dependent\u201d the market heard \u201cwatching the data to know when to cut\u201d. This data, if supported by any signs of inflation (don\u2019t forget consumer spending has remained strong) may force Powell\u2019s hand to backtrack on cut talks. It is premature to think that, but as the wage growth data sinks in, more discussions about the appropriateness of pivot will pop up.<\/p>\n

Bottom Line<\/strong><\/h2>\n

If you believe the numbers, price in few cuts, start later, and push longer term yields much higher.<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

I expect only a portion of that move will get priced in, because\u00a0the numbers are so stunning they are almost unbelievable!<\/strong><\/p>\n

The one thing that gives me a degree of confidence that the numbers might be realistic, is because of the confidence and spending data we\u2019ve been seeing, which has surprised to the upside, but maybe it shouldn\u2019t have been a surprise if\u00a0jobs are back to plentiful and raises are the norm.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nFri, 02\/02\/2024 – 09:09<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bRead More<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

“The Fed Has To Pay Attention” To This ‘Simply Stunning’ Payrolls Report Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities, A simply stunning jobs report! The…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1454997","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1454997","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1454997"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1454997\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1454997"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1454997"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1454997"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}