{"id":1458683,"date":"2024-02-22T07:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-02-22T12:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1458683"},"modified":"2024-02-22T07:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-02-22T12:00:00","slug":"korybko-russias-capture-of-avdeevka-will-reverberate-across-europe-accelerate-geostrategic-shifts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/korybko-russias-capture-of-avdeevka-will-reverberate-across-europe-accelerate-geostrategic-shifts\/1458683\/","title":{"rendered":"Korybko: Russia’s Capture Of Avdeevka Will Reverberate Across Europe & Accelerate Geostrategic Shifts"},"content":{"rendered":"

Korybko: Russia’s Capture Of Avdeevka Will Reverberate Across Europe & Accelerate Geostrategic Shifts<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Russia\u00a0finally captured<\/a>\u00a0the Ukrainian fortress town of Avdeevka following a protracted battle<\/strong> that ended in Kiev\u2019s\u00a0chaotic retreat<\/a>\u00a0and the\u00a0abandonment of its wounded troops<\/a>. The timing took place as the Western elite met in Germany for this year\u2019s Munich Security Conference over the weekend, which conveniently enabled them to plan their next moves in this\u00a0proxy<\/a>\u00a0war<\/a>. No significant financial or military aid is expected, however, despite Ukraine\u2019s\u00a0newly clinched security pacts<\/a>\u00a0with Germany and France.<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Rather, as was explained\u00a0here<\/a>\u00a0earlier in the month when analyzing the latest Biden-Scholz Summit in DC, the West\u2019s focus will be on the long-term containment of Russia in Europe beyond the borders of that former Soviet Republic. To that end, Germany\u2019s role as the US\u2019 preferred \u201cLead From Behind<\/a>\u201d partner in the EU will become more prominent, which will take the form of connecting the \u201cmilitary Schengen<\/a>\u201d with the revived\u00a0Weimar Triangle<\/a>\u00a0in order to accelerate the construction of \u201cFortress Europe<\/a>\u201d.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The preceding three hyperlinked analyses explain these concepts more in depth as well as their relationship, but they can be summarized as Germany exploiting its\u00a0comprehensive subordination of Poland<\/a>\u00a0to resume its long-lost superpower trajectory after a nearly eight-decade-long hiatus. The reason why the West\u2019s attention will turn towards accelerating this geostrategic shift instead of clinging to its proxy war on Russia via\u00a0Ukraine<\/a>\u00a0after Avdeevka is because it\u2019s now clear that the latter is a lost cause.<\/p>\n

Russia already won the \u201crace of logistics<\/a>\u201d\/\u201cwar of attrition<\/a>\u201d with NATO that Secretary General Stoltenberg declared almost exactly one year ago as proven by\u00a0the counteroffensive\u2019s failure<\/a>\u00a0and the subsequent reversal of this conflict\u2019s dynamics whereby Ukraine is now\u00a0once again on the defensive<\/a>. Former Command-in-Chief Zaluzhny\u2019s replacement Syrsky\u00a0explicitly admitted<\/a>\u00a0this last week before the disastrous retreat from Avdeevka, which is regarded as Kiev\u2019s last major fortress in Donbass.<\/p>\n

The stage is now set for a forthcoming Russian offensive that could steamroll through the rest of this region in the best-case scenario from Moscow\u2019s perspective and the worst-case one from the West\u2019s. <\/strong>That\u2019s not to say that this will indeed happen because the so-called \u201cfog of war\u201d makes it impossible to accurately discern Ukraine\u2019s full defensive capabilities behind the Line of Contact (LOC), but it\u2019s not without reason that the West is panicking and Zelensky decided to\u00a0blame them<\/a>\u00a0for his latest defeat.<\/p>\n

He complained that a so-called \u201cartificial lack of weaponry\u201d was responsible in an allusion to the congressional deadlock over more Ukraine aid, which Biden\u00a0agreed with<\/a>\u00a0to pressure his political foes.\u00a0Navalny\u2019s unexpected death<\/a>\u00a0on Friday was taken advantage of by anti-Russian hawks to demand that the House pass the Senate\u2019s proxy war funding bill when it\u00a0resumes its session<\/a>\u00a0later this month<\/strong>, but even if it\u2019s approved, the problem is that the US has already expended its stockpiles.<\/p>\n

While it\u2019s possible that it could dip into those reserves that it\u2019s saved for meeting its national security needs and coerce its vassals into doing so as well, the fact of the matter is that the counteroffensive\u2019s failure in spite of much larger aid given to Kiev up until then suggests that this won\u2019t make a difference. Whatever might be sent would be used solely to hold the LOC as long as possible and prevent a Russian breakthrough in order to perpetuate the stalemate that Zaluzhny was the first to admit had set in by fall.<\/p>\n

Truth be told, that description was inaccurate since the LOC continues gradually moving westward and the pace might speed up after Russia\u2019s capture of Avdeevka. President Putin\u00a0already signaled<\/a>\u00a0that he won\u2019t stop until his security guarantee requests are met through military or diplomatic means after\u00a0recently regretting<\/a>\u00a0that he hadn\u2019t ordered the special operation to begin sooner and saying on Sunday after the fall of that Ukrainian fortress town that victory is \u201ca matter of life and death<\/a>\u201d for Russia.<\/p>\n

It remains unclear when and on what terms the conflict will end, but the writing is on the wall and it clearly reads that Russia\u2019s security guarantee requests will be met\u00a0to some extent or another<\/a>, ergo why the West is now\u00a0planning for a decades-long \u201cconfrontation\u201d<\/a>\u00a0with Russia per Stoltenberg\u2019s own words. <\/strong>Therein lies the significance of the geostrategic shift that was identified earlier in this analysis regarding Germany\u2019s role as the US\u2019 top \u201cLead From Behind\u201d partner for containing Russia in Europe.<\/p>\n

In furtherance of that goal, NATO\u2019s continental-wide \u201cSteadfast Defender 2024\u201d drills \u2013 the largest since the end of the Old Cold War \u2013 will be aimed at optimizing the partial implementation of the \u201cmilitary Schengen\u201d between Germany, Poland, and the Netherlands, which France is expected to soon join. The Baltics will likely also participate as well given that they require support for building their so-called \u201cBaltic Defense Line<\/a>\u201d, which could extend up to the Arctic if\u00a0Finland<\/a>\u00a0gets involved too as expected.<\/p>\n

The revived Weimar Triangle comes into play since Germany requires French backing because Berlin can\u2019t realistically do all of this on its own, which in turn necessitated Poland\u2019s military subordination to its western neighbor via the abovementioned logistics pact between them. A military corridor from France to Estonia, which could reach Finland via Denmark-Sweden (the second of whom is a NATO aspirant and expected to join this new \u201cSchengen\u201d), is therefore taking shape before the world\u2019s eyes.<\/p>\n

Russia\u2019s capture of Avdeevka will therefore reverberate across Europe by accelerating the implementation of these long-term containment plans seeing as how NATO\u2019s proxy war on it through Ukraine is obviously a lost cause after the fall of that former Soviet Republic\u2019s latest fortress town. <\/strong>It\u2019s this geostrategic dynamic that observers should pay more attention to than anything else since the resumption of Germany\u2019s long-lost superpower trajectory is a development of global significance.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nThu, 02\/22\/2024 – 02:00<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bRead More<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Korybko: Russia’s Capture Of Avdeevka Will Reverberate Across Europe & Accelerate Geostrategic Shifts Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack, Russia\u00a0finally captured\u00a0the Ukrainian fortress town of…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1458683","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1458683","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1458683"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1458683\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1458683"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1458683"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1458683"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}