{"id":1459734,"date":"2024-02-28T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-02-28T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1459734"},"modified":"2024-02-28T10:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-02-28T15:00:00","slug":"natos-debate-over-direct-military-intervention-in-ukraine-shows-its-desperation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/natos-debate-over-direct-military-intervention-in-ukraine-shows-its-desperation\/1459734\/","title":{"rendered":"NATO’s Debate Over Direct Military Intervention In Ukraine Shows Its Desperation"},"content":{"rendered":"

NATO’s Debate Over Direct Military Intervention In Ukraine Shows Its Desperation<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Authored by\u00a0Andrew Korybko’s via Substack,<\/em><\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n

French President Macron\u00a0hosted<\/a>\u00a0over 20 fellow European leaders in Paris on Monday to discuss their next moves in\u00a0Ukraine<\/a>, including the possibility of a conventional NATO intervention<\/strong>, which he said they hadn\u2019t ruled out for reasons of \u201cstrategic ambiguity\u201d despite not reaching a consensus on this. His Polish counterpart Duda also confirmed that this subject was the most heated part of their discussions. The very fact that this scenario is being officially considered shows how desperate NATO has become.<\/p>\n

Russia\u2019s victory in Avdeevka<\/a>, which was\u00a0the natural result<\/a>\u00a0of it winning the \u201crace of logistics<\/a>\u201d\/\u201cwar of attrition<\/a>\u201d with NATO, prompted policymakers to contemplate what they\u2019ll do in the event that it achieves a breakthrough across the Line of Contact (LOC)<\/strong> and starts steamrolling through the rest of Ukraine. They hadn\u2019t previously considered this to be a serious possibility until\u00a0last summer\u2019s failed counteroffensive<\/a>\u00a0exposed the weakness of their military-industrial complex and tactical-strategic planning.<\/p>\n

Via Reuters<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

It’s now a credible scenario that\u2019s reviving speculation about a Polish-led intervention aimed at drawing a red line in the sand for halting any potential Russian breakthrough before it gets too far<\/strong>. This would preserve the G7\u2019s \u201csphere of (economic) influence\u201d in Ukraine while preventing that former Soviet Republic\u2019s collapse and thus averting another Afghan-like foreign policy disaster for the West. The problem, however, is that Poland also doesn\u2019t want to be put up to this only to be hung out to dry.<\/p>\n

Although\u00a0Poland has comprehensively subordinated itself to Germany<\/a>\u00a0after the return of\u00a0Berlin-backed<\/a>\u00a0Prime Minister Tusk to power late last year and envisages\u00a0carving out its own \u201csphere of influence\u201d in Western Ukraine<\/a>, this doesn\u2019t mean that it wants to lead a Western intervention there. The risk of World War III breaking out with Russia by miscalculation is much too high<\/strong> and Poland might fear that NATO won\u2019t activate Article 5<\/strong> if it clashes with Russia inside Ukraine in order to prevent that from happening.<\/p>\n

These concerns could explain why there wasn\u2019t any consensus during Monday\u2019s meeting on this issue since other members wisely won\u2019t want to take the chance of catalyzing an apocalyptic scenario, ergo the reason why\u00a0the West might be plotting a false flag in Poland to blame on Russia and Belarus<\/a>. President Lukashenko warned about that in late February, and if it comes to pass, then it could serve as the trigger for pushing Poland into leading a Western intervention in Ukraine without full NATO backing.<\/p>\n

Warsaw could be misled to believe without any written guarantees that it has the bloc\u2019s support and Article 5 would be activated if its forces clash with Russia\u2019s there, but only to be hung out to dry if that happens so as to stave off World War III by miscalculation for the greater good. Nevertheless, it would still serve the purpose of drawing a red line in the sand that could halt Russia\u2019s advance since NATO might escalate via brinksmanship afterwards by promising to activate Article 5 if the clashes continue.<\/p>\n

Poland would also be left to pick up the tab in that event by having to pay the financial and physical costs <\/strong>of this de facto NATO intervention, thus representing an amoral form of \u201cburden-sharing\u201d that would fall solely on its taxpayers instead of the rest of the bloc\u2019s. The\u00a0farmers\u2019 protests<\/a>\u00a0that are rocking that country right now could lead to a full-blown rebellion if that happens since others could join in, however, which the\u00a0ruling liberal-globalists<\/a>\u00a0would prefer not to unfold since they fear that they\u2019d risk losing power.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s why they\u2019re reluctant to lead a Western intervention in Ukraine since there\u2019s a high chance that it\u2019ll backfire on them in particular and Poland\u2019s national interests in general despite being to the benefit of Western hegemony as a whole. Whatever ends up happening, the takeaway from Monday\u2019s meeting\u00a0in Paris and the details that were revealed about their discussions is that NATO is planning for a possible Russian breakthrough across the LOC later this year but isn\u2019t yet sure how to react if that happens<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Poland could either be pushed to preempt that voluntarily or after being manipulated by the false flag that President Lukashenko warned last week is being plotted, with the second option also potentially being employed right after any breakthrough. If this occurs before NATO\u2019s \u201cSteadfast Defender 2024\u201d drills wrap up in June, then those of the bloc\u2019s forces that are presently training in Poland for its largest continental exercises since the Old Cold War could play a pivotal support role or possibly join in as well.<\/p>\n

Should a breakthrough occur after those war games end as part of the Russian offensive that Zelensky\u00a0claimed<\/a>\u00a0is being planned for as early as May, however, then Poland probably couldn\u2019t count on as much NATO support and would likely be pressured to go it alone (at least at first) with only vague promises. Another possibility is that the exercises are extended, whether in whole or in part, including through the semi-permanent stationing of some other NATO forces<\/strong>\u00a0like Germany\u2019s<\/a>\u00a0there until the offensive ends.<\/p>\n

Russian forces recently made confirmed gains near Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements along the entire frontline on February 26. (1\/2) https:\/\/t.co\/OpLbPOueCH<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/7SiK3WJQbF<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) February 27, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n

That might give Poland enough reassurance to take a leap of faith in plunging head-first into Ukraine with the expectation that the rest of NATO will follow even if they purposely lag behind in order to avoid World War III with Russia by miscalculation as was previously explained. It remains to be seen what\u2019ll happen, but as Macron himself said, \u201cwe will do everything needed so Russia cannot win the war\u201d<\/strong> and this therefore means that NATO will certainly intervene to some extent if Russia breaks through the LOC.<\/p>\n

The bloc can\u2019t afford another Afghan-like disaster, let alone on European soil in the most geostrategically<\/a> significant<\/a> conflict<\/a>\u00a0since World War II, which is why it won\u2019t sit idly on the sidelines as Ukraine collapses if there\u2019s a credible chance of that happening and Russia steamrolling through the ruins. The only reason why they\u2019re now planning for this is because Russia\u2019s victory in the \u201crace of logistics\u201d\/\u201cwar of logistics\u201d makes it conceivable sometime later this year, though it of course can\u2019t be taken for granted either.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nWed, 02\/28\/2024 – 05:00<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bRead More<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

NATO’s Debate Over Direct Military Intervention In Ukraine Shows Its Desperation Authored by\u00a0Andrew Korybko’s via Substack,\u00a0 French President Macron\u00a0hosted\u00a0over 20 fellow European leaders in Paris…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1459734","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1459734","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1459734"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1459734\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1459734"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1459734"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1459734"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}