{"id":1460375,"date":"2024-03-02T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-03-02T17:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1460375"},"modified":"2024-03-02T12:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-03-02T17:00:00","slug":"the-ukrainian-intelligence-committee-is-preparing-for-the-worst-case-scenario","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/the-ukrainian-intelligence-committee-is-preparing-for-the-worst-case-scenario\/1460375\/","title":{"rendered":"The Ukrainian Intelligence Committee Is Preparing For The Worst-Case Scenario"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Ukrainian Intelligence Committee Is Preparing For The Worst-Case Scenario<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

The Ukrainian Intelligence Committee\u00a0warned in a Telegram post<\/a>\u00a0about the worst-case scenario that could happen by June whereby a Russian breakthrough across the Line of Contact (LOC) merges with protests over conscription and Zelensky\u2019s illegitimacy to deal a deathblow to the state. They predictably claimed that those protests, along with claims of growing fatigue inside Western and Ukrainian societies plus civil-military tensions in Kiev, are just \u201cRussian disinformation\u201d even though they all veritably exist.<\/p>\n

\u201cZelensky Is Desperate To Preemptively Discredit Potentially Forthcoming Protests Against Him<\/a>\u201d and that\u2019s why he claimed in late November that Russia is conspiring to orchestrate a so-called \u201cMaidan 3\u201d against him<\/strong>, which is what the Intelligence Committee explicitly referred to in their post. Their warning also came as Ukrainian media reported that Zelensky\u00a0plans to ask<\/a>\u00a0the Constitutional Court to rule on holding elections during martial law in order to retain legitimacy after his term expires on May 20.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

The preceding hyperlinked report from Turkish media also mentions how \u201copposition party leaders Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko proposed forming a coalition government to avoid a crisis of legitimacy\u201d but were rebuked by National Security Council chief Danilov. What\u2019s so interesting about this proposal is that it was first tabled by an expert from the powerful Atlantic Council think tank in an article that they published in\u00a0Politico<\/a>\u00a0in mid-December in order to serve that exact same purpose<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

This reminder and the subsequent proposal by those two opposition party leaders debunks the notion that questions about Zelensky\u2019s legitimacy are solely the result of \u201cRussian disinformation\u201d just like a top European think tank\u2019s latest poll from January debunks the same about fatigue over this conflict. The\u00a0European Council on Foreign Relations<\/a>, which can\u2019t credibly be described as \u201cpro-Russian\u201d, found that only 10% of Europeans think that Ukraine will defeat Russia.<\/p>\n

On the other side of the Atlantic, the Congressional deadlock over more Ukraine aid proves that such sentiments are shared in the halls of power, and those who hold these views understandably don\u2019t want to continue throwing hard-earn taxpayer funds into a doomed-to-fail\u00a0proxy<\/a>\u00a0war<\/a>. Western leaders as a whole, however, are clearly panicking over the latest military-strategic dynamics<\/strong> that followed the\u00a0failure of Kiev\u2019s counteroffensive<\/a>\u00a0last summer and\u00a0Russia\u2019s recent victory in Avdeevka<\/a>.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s why many of them\u00a0debated whether to conventionally intervene in Ukraine<\/a>\u00a0during Monday\u2019s meeting in Paris that was attended by over 20 European leaders. French President Macron\u00a0said<\/a>\u00a0that this can\u2019t be ruled out despite there being no consensus on the issue, which his Polish counterpart confirmed was the most heated part of their discussions that day. This\u00a0prompted strong denials<\/a>\u00a0from all other Western leaders who claimed that they\u2019ll never authorize this, but their words can\u2019t be taken seriously.<\/p>\n

After all, the worst-case scenario that the Ukrainian Intelligence Committee warned about and is actively trying to discredit as supposedly being driven solely by \u201cRussian disinformation\u201d could push them to conventionally intervene in order to avert the state\u2019s collapse and an Afghan-like disaster in Europe<\/strong>. NATO is unlikely to sit idly on the sidelines if Russia steamrolls through the ruins after breaking through the LOC by sometime this summer, hence why a conventional intervention truly can\u2019t be ruled out<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

It would be very unpopular in the West as proven by the previously mentioned think tank\u2019s latest poll and the ongoing Congressional deadlock over Ukraine aid, but that doesn\u2019t mean that the elite won\u2019t do it since they don\u2019t take public opinion into consideration when formulating foreign and military policy. Even so, the large-scale protests that could follow in Europe are something that the elite want to avoid, but they might still risk them in order for their geopolitical project in Ukraine not to be totally for naught.<\/p>\n

Average folks outside of Ukraine can\u2019t shape the course of events, but those in that country could play an historical role if they revolted with the support of friendly elements in the military-intelligence services like those that surround former Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny. They\u2019d be putting their lives on the line since the SBU abuses, jails, and kills dissidents, but enough of them are evidently ready to do so as suggested by the Ukrainian Intelligence Committee\u2019s frantic efforts to discredit them.<\/p>\n

Bloomberg reports that Ukraine\u2019s \u201cinternal battlefield assessments\u201d say Russia could gain the momentum needed for a summer 2024 breakthrough if the West doesn\u2019t cough up more ammo supplies in time. https:\/\/t.co\/l8ZlqLOS5b<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Kevin Rothrock (@KevinRothrock) February 29, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n

It\u2019s too early to predict whether they\u2019ll revolt, let alone at the scale and for the duration that\u2019s required to depose Zelensky with a view towards immediately resuming\u00a0peace talks<\/a>\u00a0since the CIA-backed SBU could scuttle their plans by arresting their leaders (especially those in the military-intelligence services). If they do and this coincides with Russia breakthrough through the LOC, however, then it could swiftly bring an end to this proxy war provided that there are friendly elites willing to risk their lives as well.<\/p>\n

Considering the global significance of this conflict, what\u2019s regarded as the worst-case scenario from the perspective of the ruling Ukrainian elite and their Western masters is therefore the best-case scenario for the rest of the world<\/strong>. In the event that Zelensky is deposed and peace talks immediately resume right as Russia breaks through the LOC, then NATO might not feel as pressured by its security dilemma with Russia to conventionally intervene in Ukraine, thus reducing the risk of World War III by miscalculation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nSat, 03\/02\/2024 – 07:00<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bRead More<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Ukrainian Intelligence Committee Is Preparing For The Worst-Case Scenario Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack, The Ukrainian Intelligence Committee\u00a0warned in a Telegram post\u00a0about the…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1460375","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1460375","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1460375"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1460375\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1460375"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1460375"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1460375"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}