{"id":1471006,"date":"2024-06-12T18:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-06-12T22:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1471006"},"modified":"2024-06-12T18:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-06-12T22:00:00","slug":"fomc-holds-rates-as-expected-dot-plot-shifts-more-hawkish-in-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/fomc-holds-rates-as-expected-dot-plot-shifts-more-hawkish-in-2024\/1471006\/","title":{"rendered":"FOMC Holds Rates As Expected, Dot-Plot Shifts More Hawkish In 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"

FOMC Holds Rates As Expected, Dot-Plot Shifts More Hawkish In 2024<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Since the last FOMC statement (on May 1st), stocks and bonds have outperformed (with the former at record highs), gold is flat <\/strong>while the dollar is down modestly. Amid all that, oil is down significantly…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

These market moves have been prompted by a ‘bad news is good news’ regime <\/strong>as US macro data has serially disappointed…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

…adding significantly to hopes for a more dovish Fed (2 cuts priced in for 2024 and an additional 92bps of cuts in 2025)…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

The good news is that while growth ‘surprises’ have slipped lower, inflation ‘surprises’ have also drifted lower after four months of stagflationary signals worrying markets…<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Today we also get to see a new DotPlot, <\/strong>which is expected to show and adjustment down from three to two cuts for 2024 (with a risk to an adjustment down to just one cut)…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Of course, as a reminder, <\/em>the global backdrop for today\u2019s Fed decision is that big US trading partners, like Canada and the euro area, have cut interest rates even as inflation remains an issue.<\/p>\n

So, What Did The Fed Do?<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The Fed held rates unchanged as expected…<\/p>\n

*FED HOLDS BENCHMARK RATE IN 5.25-5.5% TARGET RANGE<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

And changed wording on inflation (from a “lack” of progress):<\/p>\n

*FED: INFLATION MADE MODEST FURTHER PROGRESS IN RECENT MONTHS<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

BUT…<\/p>\n

The dot-plot was hawkish,<\/strong> adjust to just one 25bps cut in 2024 (and four 25bps cuts in 2025)<\/p>\n

*FOMC MEDIAN FORECAST SHOWS 25 BPS RATE CUTS IN ’24 VS 75 BPS<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

*FOMC MEDIAN FORECAST SHOWS 100 BPS RATE CUTS IN ’25 VS 75 BPS<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

There were no dissents today, extending the streak of zero votes against the FOMC policy decision to 16 meetings, the longest period of no dissents since Alan Greenspan\u2019s 17-meeting streak from August 2003 to September 2005<\/strong> – when Mark Olson dissented.<\/p>\n

Read the full redline below (barely changed):<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nWed, 06\/12\/2024 – 14:00<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bhttps:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/markets\/fomc-17<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FOMC Holds Rates As Expected, Dot-Plot Shifts More Hawkish In 2024 Since the last FOMC statement (on May 1st), stocks and bonds have outperformed (with…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":1471007,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1471006","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1471006","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1471006"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1471006\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1471007"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1471006"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1471006"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1471006"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}