{"id":1474517,"date":"2024-07-01T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-07-01T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1474517"},"modified":"2024-07-01T06:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-07-01T10:00:00","slug":"keep-an-eye-on-ukraines-military-buildup-along-the-belarusian-border","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/keep-an-eye-on-ukraines-military-buildup-along-the-belarusian-border\/1474517\/","title":{"rendered":"Keep An Eye On Ukraine’s Military Buildup Along The Belarusian Border"},"content":{"rendered":"

Keep An Eye On Ukraine’s Military Buildup Along The Belarusian Border<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Belarusian and Russian media have been flooded with reports over the past few days about newfound tensions along the Ukrainian-Belarusian border caused by Ukraine\u2019s alleged military buildup there:<\/strong><\/p>\n

* \u201cDrone flying from Ukraine deep into Belarus shot down by border service<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

* \u201cStash with improvised explosive device parts found at Belarusian-Ukrainian border<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

* \u201cBelarusian army deploys MLRS Polonez squadron to cover sections of state border<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

* \u201cPassages open to sabotage, reconnaissance forces in minefields on Ukraine side of Belarusian border<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

* \u201cDefense Ministry on provocations at Ukraine border: Ready to use all forces to defend Belarus<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

* \u201cAdditional forces deployed to detect drones at Belarusian-Ukrainian border<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

* \u201cBelarusian military warns of rising tensions on border with Ukraine<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

* \u201cAll kinds of measures taken to contain complicated situation at Belarus\u2019 southern border<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

* \u201cBelarusian air defenses register increased number of Ukrainian drones<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

These follow Belarus\u2019 concerns over the past year since the start of\u00a0Kiev\u2019s ultimately failed counteroffensive<\/a>\u00a0that it might soon be directly attacked by Ukraine and\/or NATO:<\/strong><\/p>\n

* 25 May 2023: \u201cNATO Might Consider Belarus To Be \u2018Low-Hanging Fruit\u2019 During Kiev\u2019s Upcoming Counteroffensive<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

* 1 June 2023: \u201cThe Union State Expects That The NATO-Russian Proxy War Will Expand<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

* 14 June 2023: \u201cLukashenko Strongly Hinted That He Expects Belgorod-Like Proxy Incursions Against Belarus<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

* 14 December 2023: \u201cBelarus Is Bracing For Belgorod-Like Terrorist Incursions From Poland<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

* 19 February 2024: \u201cThe Western-Backed Foreign-Based Belarusian Opposition Is Plotting Territorial Revisions<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

* 21 February 2024: \u201cIs The West Plotting A False Flag Provocation In Poland To Blame On Russia & Belarus?<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

* 26 April 2024: \u201cAnalyzing Belarus\u2019 Claim Of Recently Thwarting Drone Attacks From Lithuania<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

These aforementioned developments coincide with rising NATO-Russian tensions as the West intensifies their\u00a0proxy<\/a>\u00a0war<\/a>\u00a0in\u00a0Ukraine<\/a>\u00a0out of desperation to achieve some sort of strategic victory <\/strong>despite the odds:<\/p>\n

* 24 May: \u201cThe US Is Now More Openly Allowing Ukraine To Use Its Arms To Strike Inside Of Russia<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

* 26 May: \u201cThe US Is Playing A Dangerous Game Of Nuclear Chicken With Russia<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

* 30 May: \u201cPutin Expects NATO, And Possibly Poland In Particular, To Escalate The Proxy War In Ukraine<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

* 31 May: \u201cIs Ukraine Going Rogue Or Did It Attack Russia\u2019s Early Warning Systems With American Approval?<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

* 11 June: \u201cKiev\u2019s Plan To Store F-16s In NATO States Raises The Risk Of World War III<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

* 15 June: \u201cThe US\u2019 Security Pact With Ukraine Is A Consolation For Not Approving Its NATO Membership<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

* 16 June: \u201cDuda\u2019s Call For \u2018Decolonizing\u2019 Russia Proved That Putin Was Right To Warn About This Plot<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

* 21 June: \u201cMore Air Defenses & Cross-Border Strikes Won\u2019t Change The Ukrainian Conflict\u2019s Dynamics<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

* 27 June: \u201cThe US\u2019 Reported PMC Plan For Ukraine Amounts To A Partial Conventional Intervention<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

* 28 June: \u201cThe \u2018EU Defense Line\u2019 Is The Latest Euphemism For The New Iron Curtain<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

All the aforementioned insight will now be summarized for the reader\u2019s convenience before analyzing the significance of Ukraine\u2019s alleged military buildup along the Belarusian border.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

In brief, Russia has already won the \u201crace of logistics<\/a>\u201d\/\u201cwar of attrition<\/a>\u201d with NATO,\u00a0being so far ahead<\/a>\u00a0that it\u2019s now producing three times as many shells as that bloc at a quarter of the cost. <\/strong><\/p>\n

Russia is therefore poised to achieve a military breakthrough across the front lines, which its\u00a0fresh push into Ukraine\u2019s Kharkov Region<\/a>\u00a0is expected to facilitate by stretching the defender\u2019s forces even further. In that event, however, NATO might\u00a0conventionally<\/a>\u00a0intervene<\/a>\u00a0in order to\u00a0asymmetrically<\/a>\u00a0partition<\/a>\u00a0Ukraine.<\/p>\n

The reason why this escalation sequence is so dangerous is because Russia might fear that any large-scale NATO invasion force that potentially crosses the Dnieper could be preparing to attack its new regions.<\/strong> The NATO-Russian security dilemma is so serious right now as a result of the previously enumerated escalations that such intentions couldn\u2019t confidently be ruled out if that happens. Russia might therefore resort to tactical nukes as a last resort out of self-defense,\u00a0ergo its recent drills<\/a>.<\/p>\n

President Putin would prefer for that dark scenario not to unfold, which his why he recently shared a\u00a0generous ceasefire proposal<\/a>\u00a0in an attempt to avert it. Ukraine predictably refused to withdraw from the administrative borders of Russia\u2019s new regions like he requested and is instead reportedly building up its forces along the Belarusian border<\/strong> in preparation of a possible offensive.<\/p>\n

While President Putin remains\u00a0open to compromise<\/a>, Zelensky clearly remains recalcitrant, likely due to\u00a0fears about his political future<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Ukraine\u2019s potential Belarusian operation appears predicated on Kiev\u2019s calculation that Russia might overreact in some way that prompts the conventional NATO intervention that Zelensky is hoping for or redirects troops from the existing front lines to this new one and thus creates an opening to exploit. <\/strong><\/p>\n

The first could occur if it resorts to tactical nukes as a last resort in self-defense or launches another offensive from Belarus, the latter of which\u00a0La Repubblica<\/a>\u00a0reported in early May would trigger a NATO intervention.<\/p>\n

As for the second dimension of Kiev\u2019s risky calculation, policymakers might expect significant on-the-ground gains that could force Russia to prioritize this new front over the existing ones, thus relieving enormous pressure upon Ukraine. In that event, it could exploit whatever openings might emerge to go back on the offensive along the eastern and\/or southern fronts, which could conveniently occur before the next NATO Summit from 9-11 July and thus provide a major boost to Western morale.<\/p>\n

This gamble could also fail and tremendously backfire on Ukraine, however, such as if Russia does indeed soon make a military breakthrough along the front lines and then steamrolls through the rest of its new regions precisely because Kiev misallocated so many of its forces to the Belarusian border. <\/strong>Furthermore, even though NATO might conventionally intervene in its support, Ukraine could lose a lot more land east of the Dnieper if the bloc stays on the western bank in order to manage its security dilemma with Russia.<\/p>\n

At the same time, it\u2019s also possible that Western intelligence identified a serious weak point somewhere along the Belarusian border and told Ukraine to exploit it, in which case this gamble might at least partially pay off. It\u2019s premature to predict its success or lack thereof either way, but in any case, observers would do well to keep a close eye on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border since Kiev\u2019s military buildup appears to be something serious and not just a feint to \u201cpsyche-out\u201d Russia.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nMon, 07\/01\/2024 – 02:00<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bhttps:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/geopolitical\/keep-eye-ukraines-military-buildup-along-belarusian-border<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Keep An Eye On Ukraine’s Military Buildup Along The Belarusian Border Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack, Belarusian and Russian media have been flooded with…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":1474518,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1474517","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1474517","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1474517"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1474517\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1474518"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1474517"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1474517"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1474517"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}