{"id":1476393,"date":"2024-07-10T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-07-10T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1476393"},"modified":"2024-07-10T06:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-07-10T10:00:00","slug":"the-japanese-philippine-military-logistics-pact-raises-the-risk-of-war-with-china","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/the-japanese-philippine-military-logistics-pact-raises-the-risk-of-war-with-china\/1476393\/","title":{"rendered":"The Japanese-Philippine Military Logistics Pact Raises The Risk Of War With China"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Japanese-Philippine Military Logistics Pact Raises The Risk Of War With China<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

It\u2019s no secret that the US is preparing to \u201cPivot (back) to Asia<\/a>\u201d in order to more muscularly contain China, but few have paid attention to the form in which this is expected to take in the coming future.<\/strong> Instead of the US doing so on its own or through the previously assembled\u00a0Quad<\/a>\u00a0of itself, Australia, India, and Japan, it\u2019s increasingly relying on the\u00a0Squad<\/a>. This framework swaps India out for the Philippines, and its latest relevant development was the clinching of a\u00a0Japanese-Philippine military logistics pact<\/a>.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

That agreement follows April\u2019s first-ever trilateral US-Japanese-Philippine summit, which\u00a0tightened the US\u2019 containment noose<\/a>\u00a0around China, and came\u00a0approximately nine months after<\/a>\u00a0those three\u2019s National Security Advisors met for the first time ever in June 2023. In practice, Japan will likely ramp up its military exercises with the Philippines and\u00a0explore more arms deals<\/a>, with those two possibly also roping Taiwan into their activities to an uncertain extent in the future given that it\u2019s roughly equidistant between them.<\/p>\n

This will increase the chances of a conflict by miscalculation since China has already recently shown that it has the political will to respond to violations of the maritime territory that it claims as its own as proven by its\u00a0latest low-intensify clashes<\/a>\u00a0with the Philippines.<\/strong> Even though the US has mutual defense obligations to the Philippines and has recently reminded China of them, it\u2019s been reluctant to meaningfully act on its commitments for de-escalation reasons, but that could easily change.<\/p>\n

After all, the US would be pressured to respond if China clashes with both its Japanese and Philippine allies in the event that they jointly violate the maritime territory that Beijing claims as its own, though they might of course abstain from such a provocation for the time being for whatever reason. In any case, it can\u2019t be ruled out that something of the sort might eventually transpire, which could prompt a dangerous brinksmanship crisis that risks spiraling out of control if cooler heads on all sides don\u2019t prevail.<\/p>\n

Southeast Asia isn\u2019t the only battleground in the Sino-US dimension of the\u00a0New Cold War<\/a>\u00a0since Northeast Asia is rapidly shaping up to be a complementary one as well.<\/strong>\u00a0North Korea<\/a>\u00a0recently accused the US, South Korea, and Japan of conspiring to create an \u201cAsian NATO<\/a>\u201d after their latest trilateral drills. South Korea is a prime candidate for joining the Squad, which can also be described as AUKUS+, with Japan playing the senior partner role in that scenario exactly as it now plays with the Philippines.<\/p>\n

That likely won\u2019t happen anytime soon though since the South Koreans remain resentful of Japan\u2019s World War II-era occupation that Tokyo hasn\u2019t ever taken full responsibility for in their view. Trilateral drills under America\u2019s aegis are one thing, but entering into a military-logistics pact with their former colonizer is an altogether different matter, especially if it leads to the latter gaining the upper hand. Nevertheless, South Korea is expected to scale up its role in AUKUS+, with Japan as its top Asian partner.<\/p>\n

The grand strategic trend is that the US is forming two Asian trilaterals with itself and Japan that are centered on the Philippines in Southeast Asia and South Korea in Northeast Asia.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Australia\u2019s role is largely symbolic for the time being, and these two trilaterals haven\u2019t yet merged into a multilateral defense network along the lines of NATO, but the writing is on the wall.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s unclear how China will respond to these moves, but there\u2019s no doubt that they make the New Cold War much more dangerous.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nWed, 07\/10\/2024 – 02:00<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bhttps:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/geopolitical\/japanese-philippine-military-logistics-pact-raises-risk-war-china<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Japanese-Philippine Military Logistics Pact Raises The Risk Of War With China Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack, It\u2019s no secret that the US is…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":1476394,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1476393","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1476393","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1476393"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1476393\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1476394"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1476393"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1476393"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1476393"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}