{"id":1477617,"date":"2024-07-15T20:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-07-16T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1477617"},"modified":"2024-07-15T20:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-07-16T00:00:00","slug":"trumpd-gold-crypto-soar-yield-curve-dis-inverts-as-small-caps-crush-big-tech-again","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/trumpd-gold-crypto-soar-yield-curve-dis-inverts-as-small-caps-crush-big-tech-again\/1477617\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump’d: Gold & Crypto Soar, Yield-Curve Dis-Inverts As Small-Caps Crush Big-Tech Again"},"content":{"rendered":"

Trump’d: Gold & Crypto Soar, Yield-Curve Dis-Inverts As Small-Caps Crush Big-Tech Again<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

The ‘Trump trade’ played out today…<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

…as prediction markets surge in the former president’s favor<\/strong>…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Trump’s media stocks soared…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

All the major US equity indices were higher today with Small Caps absolutely ripping and S&P and Nasdaq meh…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

The outperformance of the Russell 2000 over Nasdaq 100 over the past three days is outdone only by the moves made in March 2001 as the dotcom bubble imploded…<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

The almost 800bps spread is on par with events such as Lehman (Oct 2008), Trump Election (Nov 2016), and Biden election (Nov 2020).<\/strong><\/p>\n

Goldman’s treading desk noted that overall activity levels are up +25%<\/strong> vs. the trailing 2 weeks with market volumes up\u00a0 +4% vs the 10dma, as their floor tilts -1% better for sale<\/strong>,\u00a0 with both HFs and LOs tilted that way<\/p>\n

HFs skew -9% better for sale, tilted that way in every sector except Materials & Industrials.<\/strong>\u00a0 Supply is most concentrated in Energy & Staples where short supply is most prevalent.\u00a0 Tech, Fins, HCare and Cons Disc also net for sale, but mostly long supply<\/p>\n

LOs are -4% better for sale, as every sector ex-Fins, Energy & Macro Products tilts that way<\/strong>.\u00a0 Supply is heavily concentrated in Disc, HCare & Utes with more modest profit taking in Mega Tech<\/p>\n

Energy stocks outperformed and only rate-sensitive Utes were dumped today (and in that context, Real Estate was stronger than expected – Trump?)…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Treasury yields were all higher today but with a notable underperformance at the long-end <\/strong>(30Y +6bps, 2Y unch) which has dragged the long-end basically back to unchanged since CPI (juiced by the Trump trade too) as the short-end doves it up….<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

The yield curve (2s30s) disinverted for the first time since January<\/strong> (which some also look at as driven by a ‘Trump’ bet)…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Rate-cut odds shifted dovishly for 2024 today (66bps now priced in\u00a0 – so a 50-50 chance of 3 cuts by year-end), while Powell’s comments prompted some hawkishness for 2025 (looks like Trump odds just bringing fwd cuts)….<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Bitcoin soared after Trump’s assassination survival (as the crypto-friendly candidate)…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Ethereum also rallied and was juiced a little by today’s chatter that ETH ETFs will launch tomorrow, which lifted it back from the weekend’s underpeformance relative to BTC…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Gold surged back up near record highs today…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Despite energy stocks’ gains, oil prices slipped lower today (drill, baby drill; less geopol risk?)…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Finally, as we detailed here,<\/a> US equity futures traders have never, ever been ‘longer’ than they are now…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

What could go wrong?<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Don’t worry though, it’s different this time.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nMon, 07\/15\/2024 – 16:00<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bhttps:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/markets\/gold-crypto-soar-yield-curve-dis-inverts-small-caps-crush-big-tech-again<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Trump’d: Gold & Crypto Soar, Yield-Curve Dis-Inverts As Small-Caps Crush Big-Tech Again The ‘Trump trade’ played out today… Source: Bloomberg …as prediction markets surge in…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":1477618,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1477617","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/pbimBl-6cox","jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/07\/020284829_5-eha3u2.jpeg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1477617","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1477617"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1477617\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1477618"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1477617"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1477617"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1477617"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}