{"id":1479511,"date":"2024-07-25T20:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-07-26T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1479511"},"modified":"2024-07-25T20:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-07-26T00:00:00","slug":"mega-cap-meltdown-continues-as-good-news-sends-rate-cut-hopes-reeling","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/mega-cap-meltdown-continues-as-good-news-sends-rate-cut-hopes-reeling\/1479511\/","title":{"rendered":"Mega-Cap Meltdown Continues As ‘Good News’ Sends Rate-Cut Hopes Reeling"},"content":{"rendered":"

Mega-Cap Meltdown Continues As ‘Good News’ Sends Rate-Cut Hopes Reeling<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

KC Fed survey joined yesterday’s Regional Fed surveys in the doldrums (as did today’s plunge in durable goods orders) but of course, all eyes were sternly focused on Q2 GDP’s beat.<\/p>\n

That ‘good news’ sparked a hawkish shift lower in rate-cut expectations…<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

The Nasdaq lagged..again.. with Small Caps ripping higher. The S&P ended red again with The Dow clinging to gains…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Nasdaq has underperformed Russell 2000 for 11 of the last 12 days, erasing YTD outperformance for the big-tech index<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

This is the biggest relative underperformance of the Nasdaq vs Russell 2000 since the peak of the dotcom boom…<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Small Caps were helped by a massive (almost 5%) short-squeeze today…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Mag7 stocks ended lower but bounced back off the initial puke…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

The S&P 500 found support almost perfectly at its 50DMA (5433), bounced, then fell back below it again…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Nasdaq also bounced off its 100DMA yesterday, and faded back towards it today…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Goldman Sachs trading desk noted that they saw the first buy-skew in a few days with our floor tilting +3% net to buy. Volumes tracking +25%<\/strong> vs the trailing 20days and ETFs capturing 30% of the overall tape.<\/p>\n

LOs buying Fins + Cons Discretionary vs selling Tech<\/strong> and Hcare though much less risk-off than yday. Yesterday\u2019s sell off was mostly asset managers and today we are back to a true blend.\u00a0<\/p>\n

HFs buying Tech, Discretionary, and Hcare vs selling Fins<\/strong> + Industrials. Interesting to note liquidity continues to be poor, tracking -30% vs the trailing 20 days.<\/p>\n

Equity risk is back up at its highest since April, but bond vol remains muted… for now…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cIt does seem that an unwinding has begun of popular trades that brought valuations to stupid levels,\u201d <\/em><\/strong>Louis-Vincent Gave, chief executive officer of Gavekal Research, wrote in a note to clients.<\/p>\n

Mixed day for bonds with the short-end underperforming (2Y +1bps, 30Y -5bps) reversing some of the recent very aggressive steepening of the curve…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

The dollar chopped around like a penny stock today…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Gold was hit again, finding support at $2350…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Bitcoin slipped lower, finding support at around $64,000…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

But ETH dramatically lagged BTC, erasing most of the post-May ‘buy the ETF rumor’ gains…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Oil prices bounced back to unchanged on the week…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Finally, there’s more room to run. SPX: over the last ~100 years, median year has a SPX peak to trough drawdown of 13%<\/strong>. Believe it or not only been 4% which a typical drawdown taking us to 4900…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

NDX: median drawdown is 16% or around another 9% from here <\/strong>based on last 40 calendar years \u2013 would put you at the ~1700 level…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

But hey, we bounced today, so everything is awesome, right?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nThu, 07\/25\/2024 – 16:00<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bhttps:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/markets\/mega-cap-meltdown-continues-good-news-sends-rate-cut-hopes-reeling<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Mega-Cap Meltdown Continues As ‘Good News’ Sends Rate-Cut Hopes Reeling KC Fed survey joined yesterday’s Regional Fed surveys in the doldrums (as did today’s plunge…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":1479512,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1479511","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/pbimBl-6cT5","jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/07\/bfmBC30-0XTxWZ.jpeg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1479511","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1479511"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1479511\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1479512"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1479511"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1479511"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1479511"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}