{"id":1481186,"date":"2024-08-02T14:20:00","date_gmt":"2024-08-02T18:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1481186"},"modified":"2024-08-02T14:20:00","modified_gmt":"2024-08-02T18:20:00","slug":"five-takeaways-from-yesterdays-historic-prisoner-swap","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/five-takeaways-from-yesterdays-historic-prisoner-swap\/1481186\/","title":{"rendered":"Five Takeaways From Yesterday’s Historic Prisoner Swap"},"content":{"rendered":"

Five Takeaways From Yesterday’s Historic Prisoner Swap<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Russia and the West exchanged 24 prisoners on Thursday in the largest such swap since the Old Cold War. The\u00a0Wall Street Journal<\/a>\u00a0(WSJ) and\u00a0CNN<\/a>\u00a0published detailed reports about the diplomacy that led up to this deal, which included the WSJ\u2019s Evan Gershkovich and Russia\u2019s Vadim Krasikov as the highest-profile exchanges. The\u00a0New York Times<\/a>\u00a0also shared brief bios about the others who were swapped.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Here are the top five takeaways from this historic deal that most observers might have missed:<\/p>\n

1. Germany Was Responsible For Holding Everything Up<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Russia conveyed that it won\u2019t agree to any swap without the release of Vadim Krasikov, who was jailed in Germany for assassinating a Chechen terrorist that President Putin\u00a0told<\/a>\u00a0Tucker Carlson had driven his car over the heads of Russian prisoners, among his other crimes. Germany balked for a while though due to the \u201cmorality\u201d of releasing a convicted killer that\u2019s serving a life sentence, but the US convinced it to go along with this, especially since Russia and Belarus agreed to release jailed Germans as part of the deal.<\/em><\/p>\n

2. Poland, Slovenia, and Norway Chipped In But Got Nothing In Return<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

A total of four Russians who were imprisoned in the aforementioned countries were also released even though their governments didn\u2019t get anything in return. This suggests a concession on the West\u2019s part, albeit one that enabled Russia to make its own such concession that\u2019ll be touched upon in the next point for turning this deal into the largest one in decades. Those three Western countries are presenting this as an \u201cact of solidarity\u201d, but it\u2019s really proof of the US\u2019 hegemonic power over them.<\/em><\/p>\n

3. A Russian \u201cGovernment-In-Exile\u201d Will Likely Soon Take Shape<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Eight members of Russia\u2019s non-systemic \u201copposition\u201d were also sent to the West as part of this deal. They\u2019ll predictably soon set up a \u201cgovernment-in-exile\u201d, which might generate lots of media attention but fail to have any influence inside of Russia. Their inclusion in this swap made it appear more \u201cmoral\u201d in Germany\u2019s eyes and thus helped convince it to agree. It can also be understood as a reciprocal concession for freeing the four Russians mentioned above from Poland, Slovenia, and Norway.<\/em><\/p>\n

4. Turkiye\u2019s Role In Facilitating This Swap Positions It To Host The Next Round Of Peace Talks<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

For as noble as\u00a0China<\/a>,\u00a0India<\/a>, and\u00a0Hungary<\/a>\u2019s efforts are in trying to mediate a resolution to the Ukrainian Conflict, Turkiye has a much better chance of doing so than they do. Its\u00a0role in facilitating<\/a>\u00a0this latest swap builds upon the earlier ones that it facilitated, which show that Russia and the West still regard it as a neutral middleman. This suggests that they\u2019d agree to it hosting the next round peace talks along the lines of spring 2022\u2019s\u00a0ultimately sabotaged<\/a>\u00a0ones once all parties are ready instead of looking elsewhere.<\/em><\/p>\n

5. Kamala Will Try Politicizing This Swap To Discredit Trump<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Trump\u00a0claimed<\/a>\u00a0earlier this spring that only he could secure Gershkovich\u2019s release and that he\u2019d get Putin to agree to this as a favor without receiving anything in return, yet the this week\u2019s historic swap proved him wrong. In response, Trump\u00a0suggested<\/a>\u00a0that the deal was lopsided despite the West getting twice as many people as Russia did, and he also speculated that cash was paid for them too.\u00a0Kamala<\/a>\u00a0will certainly try politicizing this swap to discredit Trump, but it\u2019s unclear whether voters will care all that much.<\/em><\/p>\n

*\u00a0 *\u00a0 *<\/p>\n

Altogether, each side in this swap got what they wanted, and it represents a rare example of successful\u00a0New Cold War<\/a>\u00a0diplomacy. <\/strong>Reflecting on the top five takeaways, the last two are the most significant, but neither can be taken for granted with respect to Turkiye hosting the next round of peace talks (let alone anytime soon) and Kamala\u2019s politicization of this swap having any effect on the presidential race. Even so, they\u2019re what observers should monitor to see whether anything meaningful comes of them.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nFri, 08\/02\/2024 – 10:20<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bhttps:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/geopolitical\/five-takeaways-yesterdays-historic-prisoner-swap<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Five Takeaways From Yesterday’s Historic Prisoner Swap Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack, Russia and the West exchanged 24 prisoners on Thursday in the largest…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":1481187,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1481186","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1481186","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1481186"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1481186\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1481187"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1481186"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1481186"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1481186"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}