{"id":1481380,"date":"2024-08-03T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-08-03T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1481380"},"modified":"2024-08-03T11:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-08-03T15:00:00","slug":"orbans-insight-into-the-global-systemic-transition-hungarian-grand-strategy-is-worth-reading","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/orbans-insight-into-the-global-systemic-transition-hungarian-grand-strategy-is-worth-reading\/1481380\/","title":{"rendered":"Orban’s Insight Into The Global Systemic Transition & Hungarian Grand Strategy Is Worth Reading"},"content":{"rendered":"

Orban’s Insight Into The Global Systemic Transition & Hungarian Grand Strategy Is Worth Reading<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban elaborated on the\u00a0global systemic transition<\/a>\u00a0and his country\u2019s grand strategy within it during a lengthy speech at the Balvanyos Free Summer University and Student Camp over the weekend. The\u00a0over 11,000-word English transcript<\/a>\u00a0was published on Monday, which the present piece will summarize for the reader\u2019s convenience. It began with him reaffirming that it\u2019s his\u00a0Christian duty to promote peace<\/a>\u00a0and mocking the EU for its Orwellian \u201cwar is peace\u201d mantra.<\/p>\n

He then said that the\u00a0Ukrainian Conflict<\/a>\u00a0was a \u201cred pill\u201d for him and proceeded to elaborate on the ten ways in which it opened his eyes to reality. <\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

First<\/strong>, there have been enormous casualties on both sides, but each will continue fighting\u00a0unless external stakeholders diplomatically intervene<\/a>\u00a0since they\u2019re convinced that they\u2019ll win.<\/p>\n

Second<\/strong>, the US\u00a0went from<\/a>\u00a0containing China to waging a proxy war on Russia, which pushed those two together and prompted questions about why the US would do this. \u00a0<\/p>\n

Third<\/strong>, Ukraine\u2019s resilience in spite of its objective economic and demographic weaknesses can be explained by its sense of mission that fills it with a higher purpose, which is to\u00a0become the West\u2019s eastern military frontier<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Fourth<\/strong>, Russia has also proven itself to be impressively resilient, and it\u2019s nowhere near collapsing like Western leaders hubristically predicted.<\/p>\n

Fifth<\/strong>, the EU has undergone fundamental changes since the\u00a0latest phase<\/a>\u00a0of the Ukrainian Conflict began two and half years ago.<\/p>\n

It now follows the US Democrats\u2019 lead instead of retaining its strategic autonomy, and the traditional Franco-German axis is now challenged like never before by\u00a0Poland<\/a>, which has allied\u00a0with the UK, Ukraine<\/a>, the Baltic States, and Scandinavia to create a new center of power in Europe. This is actually an old Polish plan (Pilsudski\u2019s \u201cIntermarium<\/a>\u201d from the interwar period) adapted to contemporary conditions brought about by the Ukrainian Conflict and fully assisted by the US.<\/p>\n

Sixth<\/strong>, the West\u2019s standards are no longer universal and it\u2019s experiencing \u201cspiritual solitude\u201d after the entire non-West refused to follow its lead in isolating Russia.<\/p>\n

Seventh<\/strong>, the biggest problem in the world is the weakness and disintegration of the West caused by its lack of leadership and seemingly irrational policies, which is accelerating China\u2019s rise as its global systemic challenger.<\/p>\n

Eighth<\/strong>, Western Europe\u2019s worldview is now post-national while Central Europe still believes in the sanctity of the nation-state.<\/p>\n

This dichotomy explains the West\u2019s seemingly irrational policies since each half of Europe is operating according to a completely different philosophy. The US is also experiencing a similar division between those like Trump who want it to remain a nation-state and his opponents who want it to become a post-national state. According to Orban, this division owes its origins to the sexual revolution and student rebellions from over half a century ago, which sought to free people from any form of collective identity.<\/p>\n

Ninth<\/strong>, the West\u2019s post-national trends are convulsing democracy and leading to friction between the elite\/elitism and the people\/populism.<\/p>\n

And finally, the tenth red pill <\/strong>is that Western soft power\/values aren\u2019t universal but are actually counterproductive since Russia\u2019s strongest international attraction nowadays is its\u00a0resistance to LGBTQ<\/a>. Orban then said that these trends are leading to the rise of the non-West, which he believes first began with China\u2019s admission to the WTO in 2001 and might be irreversible.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s priority is to rebuild and strengthen North America, to which end he\u2019ll\u00a0squeeze<\/a>\u00a0the US\u2019 European and Asian allies while negotiating better deals with China. His end game is to make the US self-sufficient in energy and raw materials so that it can stand a better chance at retaining its declining position in global affairs. The EU has two options: it can either become an \u201copen-air museum\u201d (passive international actor) absorbed by the US or pursue strategic autonomy in order improve its standing in the world.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s needed is more connectivity, a European military alliance with its own defense industry (albeit\u00a0without federalization<\/a>), energy self-sufficiency, reconciliation with Russia, and admitting that Ukraine won\u2019t join the EU or NATO.<\/strong> It\u2019ll return to its prior role as a\u00a0buffer zone<\/a>\u00a0and will be lucky if it gets security guarantees in a US-Russian agreement. Poland\u2019s power play will fail because it lacks the resources to replace Germany so Orban expects that his \u201cPolish brothers and sisters\u201d will return to Central Europe. \u00a0<\/p>\n

He also considers all of these changes to be an opportunity. Developments in the US favor Hungary, but it must be careful about any deals it might offer due to the Polish precedent. Warsaw bet everything on Washington and received support for its strategic goals, but now it\u2019s \u201csubject to the imposition of a policy of democracy export, LGBTQ, migration and internal social transformation.\u201d Orban ominously notes that this combination risks of the loss of Polish national identity if these trends continue unabated.<\/p>\n

Hungary will remain in the EU, but the bloc\u2019s East-West divisions between those that correspondingly respect the nation-state and those that are moving beyond it will widen.<\/strong> The EU must also accept that it\u2019s the loser in the Ukrainian Conflict, the US will abandon this proxy war, and the EU can\u2019t realistically pick up the tab. All the while, Hungary will rely on China for modernizing its economy and boosting its exports, which will lead to mutually beneficial outcomes.<\/p>\n

A Hungarian grand strategy is required in order to maximally take advantage of the opportunities brought about by the ten previously described red pills and their abovementioned consequences. What\u2019s already been decided upon since his government began work on this after the 2022 elections isn\u2019t yet digestible and widely comprehensible by the public, and he said that it\u2019ll take around six months for everything to become clearer for them, but he still shared the gist of what this grand strategy entails.<\/p>\n

The first part is what he describes as connectivity, which he explained as being plugged in to both the Eastern and Western halves of the global economy. The second is sovereignty, with a focus on the economic dimension by promoting national companies on the world market, reducing debt, becoming a regional creditor, and boosting domestic production. The final part is bolstering his society\u2019s resilience by halting demographic decline, preserving villages, and maintaining Hungary\u2019s distinct culture.<\/p>\n

Orban ended by explaining that all Hungarians across the world must help advance this grand strategy. <\/strong>The global systemic transition is expected to last another 20-25 years so the next generation will be tasked with completing its implementation. Their liberal opponents will try to offset this, but such efforts can be counteracted by recruiting young nationalists to the cause. The impression that one gets after reading through his speech in full is that Orban is this generation\u2019s most visionary European leader.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nSat, 08\/03\/2024 – 07:00<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bhttps:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/geopolitical\/orbans-insight-global-systemic-transition-hungarian-grand-strategy-worth-reading<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Orban’s Insight Into The Global Systemic Transition & Hungarian Grand Strategy Is Worth Reading Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":1481381,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1481380","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1481380","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1481380"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1481380\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1481381"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1481380"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1481380"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1481380"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}