{"id":1486181,"date":"2024-08-27T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-08-27T13:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1486181"},"modified":"2024-08-27T09:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-08-27T13:00:00","slug":"ukraine-might-be-gearing-up-to-attack-or-cut-off-belarus-southeastern-city-of-gomel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/ukraine-might-be-gearing-up-to-attack-or-cut-off-belarus-southeastern-city-of-gomel\/1486181\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine Might Be Gearing Up To Attack Or Cut Off Belarus’ Southeastern City Of Gomel"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ukraine Might Be Gearing Up To Attack Or Cut Off Belarus’ Southeastern City Of Gomel<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Its Foreign Ministry\u2019s ominously implied ultimatum to Minsk and reaffirmation of Ukraine\u2019s right to self-defense suggest that Kiev might invade Belarus\u2019 Gomel Region and\/or Russia\u2019s Bryansk Region.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry released a\u00a0statement<\/a>\u00a0on Sunday warning about what it described as the \u201cthreat\u201d posed by Belarus\u2019 military buildup along the border, the motivations of which were analyzed\u00a0here<\/a>\u00a0in early August. Belarusian President Lukashenko also drew attention last week to the\u00a0whopping 120,000 Ukrainian troops<\/a>\u00a0that he claims were the first to deploy there. For reference, Belarus only has\u00a0around 65,000 active soldiers<\/a>,\u00a0one-third of whom<\/a>\u00a0are stationed along the Ukrainian border.<\/p>\n

Less than a week ago, a small Ukrainian force\u00a0unsuccessfully tried<\/a>\u00a0to invade a tiny village in Russia\u2019s Bryansk Region that\u2019s only 30 kilometers from the Belarusian border. It was likely a probing attempt in hindsight, but any\u00a0Kursk-like invasion<\/a>\u00a0along that front could risk impeding or even cutting off Russia\u2019s military logistics to Belarus\u2019 southeastern city of Gomel. That\u2019s because there\u2019s a nearby highway running between there and Bryansk\u2019s eponymous capital just 30-50 kilometers inside of Russia from the border.<\/p>\n

Ukraine might be gearing up to either attack Gomel (which is just 30 kilometers from the border) or at least threaten Russia\u2019s military logistics to there from Bryansk judging by its Foreign Ministry\u2019s statement, which the \u201cKyiv Independent<\/a>\u201d noted was the first about Belarus since last September. They ominously implied an ultimatum by writing that \u201cwe urge its armed forces to cease unfriendly actions and withdraw forces away from Ukraine’s state border to a distance greater than the firing range of Belarus’ systems.\u201d<\/p>\n

This was backed up by them reminding Belarus that \u201cWe warn that in case of a violation of Ukraine’s state border by Belarus, our state will take all necessary measures to exercise the right to self-defense guaranteed by the UN Charter. Consequently, all troop concentrations, military facilities, and supply routes in Belarus will become legitimate targets for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.\u201d <\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

The stage is therefore set for opening up another front on this false pretext if Kiev has the political will to do so.<\/p>\n

There are arguments for and against the five most likely scenarios.<\/p>\n

The first one is that Ukraine doesn\u2019t invade either Gomel or Bryansk Regions,<\/strong> instead remaining content to continue sending drones across the former\u2019s border and possibly continuing to carry out small-scale raids in the second.<\/p>\n

The advantage is that Ukraine wouldn\u2019t further extend itself, but the disadvantage is that also wouldn\u2019t further extend its adversaries either. This is the least risky scenario of the five.<\/p>\n

As for the second scenario, Ukraine might provoke Belarus into initiating conventional hostilities or orchestrate a false flag to that end.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Either could pressure the West into conventionally intervening like Italy\u2019s La Repubblica newspaper\u00a0reported<\/a>\u00a0that it would do if Belarus formally got involved in this conflict. Ukraine might desperately need the pressure relief that such an intervention could bring, but it might either be hung out to dry or the intervention could lead to tensions spiraling out of control.<\/p>\n

The third, fourth, and fifth scenarios are similar in that Ukraine could either attack Gomel, Bryansk, or both. <\/strong><\/p>\n

This would pose the same risks that the first one would avert with regards to either further extending its own forces and\/or its adversaries\u2019. It\u2019s the most dramatic set of scenarios due to how much it would worsen the conflict, but that might be precisely what Ukraine wants if it believes that this could get the West to conventionally intervene in its support, thus implying that it\u2019ll soon lose if they won\u2019t.<\/p>\n

Out of these five, while the first would arguably be the best, it appears to be the least likely. <\/strong><\/p>\n

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry wouldn\u2019t have made its first statement about Belarus in almost a year if it didn\u2019t believe that this would bring it some sort of benefit, let alone ominously imply an ultimatum and then reaffirm its right to self-defense, which would be twisted to justify aggression in the event that it decides to attack Gomel and\/or Bryansk.<\/p>\n

Something is cooking, and it doesn\u2019t bode well for Belarus.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nTue, 08\/27\/2024 – 05:00<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bhttps:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/geopolitical\/ukraine-might-be-gearing-attack-or-cut-belarus-southeastern-city-gomel<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ukraine Might Be Gearing Up To Attack Or Cut Off Belarus’ Southeastern City Of Gomel Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack, Its Foreign Ministry\u2019s ominously…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":1486182,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1486181","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1486181","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1486181"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1486181\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1486182"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1486181"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1486181"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1486181"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}