{"id":1488688,"date":"2024-09-08T18:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-09-08T22:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1488688"},"modified":"2024-09-08T18:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-09-08T22:00:00","slug":"bitcoins-bull-run-is-intact-ahead-of-schedule","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/bitcoins-bull-run-is-intact-ahead-of-schedule\/1488688\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin’s Bull-Run Is Intact & Ahead Of Schedule"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin’s Bull-Run Is Intact & Ahead Of Schedule<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Authored by Mark Jeftovic via BombThrower.com,<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Putting the Recent Crypto Carnage Into Perspective<\/h2>\n

This week ended badly for everything, with the DJIA losing %1 on the day, 1.7% on the S&P500 and 2.55% for the Nasdaq, Zerohedge called it\u00a0\u201cKamala Karnage<\/a>,<\/p>\n

\u201cand boy was it an epic flush:\u00a0everything \u2013 like literally everything \u2013 and certainly anything with a high beta or even a trace of momentum, imploded with a sheer violence that made Aug 5 look like amateur hour.\u201d<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Bitcoin, touched as low as $52.7K \u2013 a week ago it was flirting with $60K -prompting the usual no-coiners to gloat that Bitcoin was \u201cimploding\u201d, seemingly implying that\u00a0everything else\u00a0<\/em>wasn\u2019t tanking as well.<\/p>\n

When August 5th Black Monday hit, the alert sent out to my\u00a0Bitcoin Capitalist Letter<\/a>\u00a0readers said<\/p>\n

My view is that this entire selloff in crypto is 100% a macro induced liquidity crisis and globally contagious margin call.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

It has very little (nothing?) to do with Bitcoin, it has everything to do with a few chickens coming home to roost and a mad scramble for solvency.<\/em><\/p>\n

Pretty well\u00a0everything\u00a0is down hard and the reason cryptos are down harder is because, as we all know, there are no circuit breakers or \u201cplunge-protection teams\u201d for Bitcoin or anything else in the space, and it all trades 24x7x365.<\/em><\/p>\n

That\u2019s why it tends to overshoot to both the upside and down.<\/em><\/p>\n

Contrast this summer softness in Bitcoin with 2021-2022 crypto winter, which was 100% subject to the internals of the digital assets economy itself: Terra\/Luna, 3AC, Celsius, and of course, the FTX debacle brought a well deserved purge to the space and the (some of) the most egregious offenders are where they belong: in prison.<\/p>\n

Many look at the unrestrained volatility of Bitcoin and gloat, arguing that it makes it untenable as a store of value. (I wonder who was around during the Weimar hyperinflation who, looking at the volatility of\u00a0gold<\/em>\u00a0compared to the rapidly disintegrating Reichmark said the same thing:\u00a0\u201cToo Volatile to function as a store of value\u201d<\/em>. That\u2019s right, nobody remembers\u00a0them).<\/em><\/p>\n

You\u2019ll often see charts from Weimar Germany of gold priced in the paper mark going parabolic.<\/p>\n

What that chart doesn\u2019t show is the sharp drawdowns & volatility that occurred during the hyper-inflationary period. Speculating using leverage got wiped out multiple times.$BTC<\/a> 1\/2 pic.twitter.com\/tZhpP1KMS1<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Dylan LeClair \ud83d\udfe0 (@DylanLeClair_) May 23, 2021<\/a><\/p>\n

Something I\u2019ve said since 2013 \u2013 when Mt. Gox imploded and everybody was calling it \u201cThe Death of Bitcoin\u201d. This is what a free market looks like, no circuit breakers, no plunge protection team and even contrast to some of the cryptos, like Ethereum, no \u201cdo overs\u201d in the form of hard forking your way out of a jam.<\/p>\n

Because BTC is getting clobbered along with everything else, this is reminding me more of the COVID panic of 2020 more than it resembles the onset of the crypto winter, in 2021 (I think I launched The Bitcoin Capitalist Letter right at the\u00a0top<\/em>\u00a0of that cycle, as luck would have it).<\/p>\n

People point at the volatility as proof that Bitcoin is not a safe haven and it\u2019s not a hedge \u2013 one prominent newsletter writer I\u2019ve known for a long time constantly berates me that Bitcoin doesn\u2019t move opposite to the dollar, as one should expect it to if it\u2019s some sort of hedge against inflation or debasement.<\/p>\n

Others say that \u201cBitcoin is basically Tesla\u201d or that it simply moves with, and trades like just another high flying tech stock or the Nasdaq as a whole.<\/p>\n

They\u2019re not entirely wrong about Bitcoin\u2019s correlation with high tech, but they\u2019re not seeing the entire picture either.<\/p>\n

Our current era is driven almost entirely by technological advancement, that idea isn\u2019t controversial to most people \u2013 however they do fail to grasp the ramifications of the\u00a0feedback loops<\/em>\u00a0technology creates and the\u00a0accelerating pace of change<\/em>\u00a0that comes with it.<\/p>\n

This is why the tech sector is moving faster and outperforming everything else and it\u2019s why Bitcoin is outperforming the tech sector. My mantra, as laid out in\u00a0The Crypto Capitalist Manifesto<\/a>, is:<\/p>\n

Bitcoin\u00a0isn\u2019t a trade<\/em>. It\u2019s a\u00a0monetary regime change.<\/em><\/h2>\n

In Ferdinand Lips\u2019 \u201cGold Wars\u201d (cited in \u201cSound Money Makes for Short Wars<\/a>\u201c), he talks about how the global move to a gold standard happened without governments (or globalists) decreeing that it should be so, owing to gold\u2019s superiority as a monetary metal:<\/p>\n

By 1900, approximately fifty countries were on a gold standard. including all industrialized nations.\u00a0The interesting fact is that the modern gold standard was not planned at an international conference, nor was it invented by some genius. It came by itself, naturally and based on experience.<\/strong>\u00a0The United Kingdom went on a gold standard against the intention of its government.<\/strong>\u00a0Only much later did laws turn an operative gold standard into an officially sanctioned gold standard.<\/em><\/p>\n

This is exactly what\u2019s happening today\u00a0with Bitcoin<\/em>, only the people who have been so wrong about it for so long are digging in even harder now, despite it becoming more obvious by the day that this is the direction things are going (I can imagine some future history teacher stumping her class with \u201cYou\u2019ll never guess which nation state was the first one to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, I\u2019ll even give you a hint: It\u00a0wasn\u2019t\u00a0<\/em>any of the former US Republics\u201d).<\/p>\n

What\u2019s so disorientating about it happening now is because where in the past, when the incentives impelled market actors toward a gold standard, it took place over decades or even centuries. For most people, in any given lifetime, the current monetary regime of the day was something that had been in place already the day they were born, and it probably wasn\u2019t going to change over their own lifetime.<\/p>\n

Those exceptional occasions when it did are where history books come from. Panics, wars, hyperinflations throughout the ages were once-in-a-lifetime or generational events. Today you\u2019re seeing it unfold in your twitter feed.<\/p>\n

Now, because of the technology curve and acceleration in the rate of change, they happen all the time, with increasing frequency and magnitude.<\/p>\n

Most of the ridiculous bullshit people believe today<\/p>\n

\u2026 and nearly all the policy blunders that are so catastrophically stupid as to appear to be intentional conspiracy<\/p>\n

– are pure and simple Future Shock.<\/p>\n

Go back and read the entire series.<\/p>\n

Then you\u2019ll get what\u2019s actually\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/9xGmhtnJJk<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Mark Jeftovic, The \u20bfitcoin Capitalist (@StuntPope) June 18, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n

People like Peter Schiff (and my anonymized newsletter writer colleague) delight in seizing on any one-day squiggles where Bitcoin goes down and gold goes up as proof positive that \u201cthe Bitcoin\u00a0trade<\/em>\u201d is over, and they trot out all the usual eulogies (\u201cTulips, backed by nothing\u201d, \u201cponzi\u201d, \u201cNSA psyop<\/a>\u201c, et al).<\/p>\n

It takes an act of concerted motivated reasoning to blot out the cognitive dissonance that just looking at the factual record of Bitcoin\u2019s performance must induce in the skeptics:<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

I included Berkshire Hathaway here because\u00a0it\u2019s run by Cantillionaires<\/a>\u00a0that hate Bitcoin and frequently lauded as tried-and-true capital allocation machine\u00a0 (despite its outperformance over the S&P being in a secular downtrend).<\/p>\n

Also interesting to note that\u00a0gold\u00a0<\/em>is barely keeping up with the expansion of M2 over a 10-year timeframe, and none of the Bitcoin-loathing goldbugs trash talking BTC on Twitter ever responds when I point out that gold\u00a0still\u00a0<\/em>hasn\u2019t surpassed it\u2019s inflation-adjusted high\u00a0from 1980.<\/em><\/p>\n

Bonds are dead capital walking, \u201cReturn-free risk\u201d, as they say. A cornerstone of my thesis is an eventual bond exodus that sees even a fraction move into Bitcoin (1% to 3% would put BTC somewhere in the high-6 or low-7 digits).<\/p>\n

Bitcoin simply\u00a0is\u00a0<\/em>the highest performing asset in absolute terms\u00a0of all time.<\/em><\/p>\n

At the end of the day, I\u2019d be worried in the\u00a0short term\u00a0<\/em>if there was something specific to the Bitcoin or crypto markets driving this pullback (like Tether finally being revealed to be a fraud,\u00a0 which we covered in latest letter) \u2013 but so far that\u2019s still just speculation and it hasn\u2019t become an issue.<\/p>\n

The Bitcoin ETFs\u00a0have not<\/em>\u00a0been dumping though the weakness. Many said they would, that the spot ETFs would make it easier to dump positions at the first sign of trouble.<\/p>\n

\u201cDespite price volatility, ETF holders have shown resilience, with no major outflows since March. But overall inflow rates have slowed considerably post-launch\u201d \u2014\u00a0via Ecoinometrics<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

But as we\u2019ve been saying over the last few issues, so far this cycle, it\u2019s been all institutional \u2013 meaning, for most of the bull run this year (remember, Bitcoin is still up 22% YTD and 106% over the past year) so while institutions may prefer to garner their exposure via ETFs, they tend to take a longer term outlook and not to make sudden moves.<\/p>\n

I\u2019ve noticed that miners have been accumulating meaningfully for the first time in this year:<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

And finally, we\u2019re pretty well in line with previous halving cycle years with the notable exception that Bitcoin put in fresh, all-time highs\u00a0before\u00a0<\/em>the halving event in April, which is something that didn\u2019t happen in previous cycles until several months afterwards.<\/p>\n

In my mind, the major parabolic \u201cup-only\u201d move for Bitcoin is still ahead, perhaps\u00a0dead ahead<\/em>\u00a0with the remainder of the cryptos to follow thereafter (except maybe Ethereum \ud83d\ude09<\/p>\n

The global rate hike cycle is\u00a0over,\u00a0<\/em>the central banks are trapped between dilemmas of their own making, policy makers are openly espousing capital controls, wealth taxes, if not outright communism \u2013 it\u2019s really hard to see a scenario where Bitcoin doesn\u2019t continue to attract more capital and take its place as\u00a0the ultimate safe haven asset\u00a0<\/em>in this modern-day Fourth Turning.<\/p>\n

*\u00a0 *\u00a0 *<\/p>\n

Sign up to the Bombthrower Mailing list today<\/a>\u00a0and get a free copy of the aforementioned\u00a0Crypto Capitalist Manifesto<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 I\u2019ll also send you my forthcoming e-book\u00a0The CBDC Survival Guide\u00a0when it drops this fall. <\/em><\/p>\n

Follow me\u00a0on Twitter here<\/a>, or\u00a0Nostr:<\/a>\u00a0npub1elwpzsul8d9k4tgxqdjuzxp0wa94ysr4zu9xeudrcxe2h3sazqkq5mehan<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nSun, 09\/08\/2024 – 14:00<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bhttps:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/crypto\/bitcoins-bull-run-intact-ahead-schedule<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin’s Bull-Run Is Intact & Ahead Of Schedule Authored by Mark Jeftovic via BombThrower.com, Putting the Recent Crypto Carnage Into Perspective This week ended badly…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":1488689,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1488688","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1488688","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1488688"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1488688\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1488689"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1488688"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1488688"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1488688"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}