{"id":1489148,"date":"2024-09-11T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-09-11T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1489148"},"modified":"2024-09-11T06:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-09-11T10:00:00","slug":"orbans-latest-ceasefire-proposal-wont-amount-to-anything-for-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/orbans-latest-ceasefire-proposal-wont-amount-to-anything-for-now\/1489148\/","title":{"rendered":"Orban’s Latest Ceasefire Proposal Won’t Amount To Anything For Now"},"content":{"rendered":"

Orban’s Latest Ceasefire Proposal Won’t Amount To Anything For Now<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban\u00a0told the press<\/a>\u00a0during his trip to Italy that \u201ccommunication is number one, followed by a ceasefire, and only after that can we start talks about a peace agreement\u201d between Russia and Ukraine.<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

He also added that the EU is against all three steps since it\u2019s counterproductively pursuing a pro-war policy in that conflict. <\/strong>Here are three briefings about Orban\u2019s peace trip over the summer for those who might have forgotten about it since then:<\/p>\n

* 7 July: \u201cOrban Shared Some Detailed Insight Into His Mediation Efforts<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

* 20 July: \u201cOrban\u2019s Peace Mission Report To The EU Isn\u2019t Anywhere As Scandalous As Some Might Think<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

* 2 August: \u201cOrban\u2019s Insight Into The Global Systemic Transition & Hungarian Grand Strategy Is Worth Reading<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

He\u2019s therefore sincere with his ceasefire proposal, but it won\u2019t amount to anything for now. A cessation of hostilities is completely out of the question for Russia so long as Ukraine continues occupying part of Kursk. <\/strong>Other \u201cgoodwill gestures\u201d are still possible as is now known after Lavrov revealed that Russia was on the brink of reviving the grain deal this spring, but only because those are envisaged as costless means to the end of politically resolving this conflict. Here are three briefings on these calculations:<\/p>\n

* 25 May: \u201cRussia Is Open To Compromise But Won\u2019t Agree To A Ceasefire That Doesn\u2019t Meet Its Interests<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

* 15 June: \u201cWhat\u2019s Really Behind Putin\u2019s Generous Ceasefire Proposal?<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

* 2 September: \u201cLavrov Revealed That Russia Was On The Brink Of Reviving The Grain Deal This Spring<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

Considering this, the only chance for a ceasefire is if Ukraine agrees to the \u201cgoodwill gesture\u201d of withdrawing from Kursk, though that\u2019s unlikely after Zelensky\u00a0confirmed<\/a>\u00a0prior speculation that his forces plan to indefinitely hold it.<\/strong> No progress on Orban\u2019s proposal is therefore expected until Russia first pushes the Ukrainians out of Kursk, but there\u2019s no telling how long that\u2019ll take. Here are three briefings on this dimension of the conflict, which is now in its second month:<\/p>\n

* 8 August: \u201cFive Lessons For Russia To Learn From Ukraine\u2019s Sneak Attack Against Kursk Region<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

* 14 August: \u201cAnalyzing Putin\u2019s Assessment Of Ukraine\u2019s Incursion Into Kursk<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

* 21 August: \u201cDon\u2019t Expect A Radical Response From Russia To The US\u2019 Involvement In Ukraine\u2019s Invasion Of Kursk<\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

Russia\u2019s capture of Pokrovsk<\/a>\u00a0could compel Ukraine to withdraw from Kursk so as to prevent the collapse of the front lines, but there\u2019s no guarantee that it won\u2019t turn that city into the next Artyomovsk (Bakhmut), Avdeevka, or Mariupol, which could lead to it holding Kursk for a little longer. This sequence of events could revive interest in a ceasefire, but it might not unfold, or one side might still refuse to silence the guns even if it does. For that reason, nobody should expect a ceasefire anytime soon.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nWed, 09\/11\/2024 – 02:00<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bhttps:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/geopolitical\/orbans-latest-ceasefire-proposal-wont-amount-anything-now<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Orban’s Latest Ceasefire Proposal Won’t Amount To Anything For Now Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban\u00a0told the press\u00a0during his trip…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":1489149,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1489148","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1489148","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1489148"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1489148\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1489149"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1489148"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1489148"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1489148"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}