{"id":1490042,"date":"2024-09-15T18:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-09-15T22:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1490042"},"modified":"2024-09-15T18:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-09-15T22:00:00","slug":"russia-the-west-are-engaged-in-political-choreography-over-ukraines-use-of-long-range-weapons","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/russia-the-west-are-engaged-in-political-choreography-over-ukraines-use-of-long-range-weapons\/1490042\/","title":{"rendered":"Russia & The West Are Engaged In Political Choreography Over Ukraine’s Use Of Long-Range Weapons"},"content":{"rendered":"

Russia & The West Are Engaged In Political Choreography Over Ukraine’s Use Of Long-Range Weapons<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Rarely is everything as clear-cut as it seems…<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Putin\u00a0warned<\/a>\u00a0last week that letting Ukraine use Western long-range weapons to strike deep inside of Russia \u201cwill mean that NATO countries, the\u00a0United States, and\u00a0European countries are parties to\u00a0the\u00a0war in\u00a0Ukraine. This will mean their direct involvement in\u00a0the\u00a0conflict, and\u00a0it will clearly change the\u00a0very essence, the\u00a0very nature of\u00a0the\u00a0conflict dramatically. This will mean that NATO countries\u00a0\u2013 the\u00a0United States and\u00a0European countries\u00a0\u2013 are at\u00a0war with Russia.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

He preceded his words by reminding everyone that \u201cthe\u00a0Ukrainian army is not capable of\u00a0using cutting-edge high-precision long-range systems supplied by\u00a0the\u00a0West. They cannot do that. These weapons are impossible to\u00a0employ without intelligence data from satellites which Ukraine does not have. This can only be done using the\u00a0European Union\u2019s satellites, or\u00a0US satellites\u00a0\u2013 in\u00a0general, NATO satellites\u2026(and) only NATO military personnel can assign flight missions to\u00a0these missile systems.\u201d<\/p>\n

Foreign Minister Lavrov briefed foreign ambassadors about this on the same day, repeating the same points as his boss but also\u00a0adding<\/a>\u00a0that \u201cOur experts are confident that without such (Western) specialist involvement, it would be impossible (for Ukraine) to use these complex systems.<\/strong><\/em> These tasks can only be performed by professionals who have worked with these systems for a long time and know how to operate them. It would be impossible to train someone to use them in just a few weeks.\u201d<\/p>\n

Even though Kremlin spokesman Peskov\u00a0assessed<\/a>\u00a0that \u201cwe have no doubt that this statement has reached its recipients\u201d, Biden\u00a0still signaled<\/a>\u00a0that he and Starmer might very well approve this proposal regardless.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov was then quoted by\u00a0TASS<\/a>\u00a0as saying that \u201cWe know that the corresponding decisions were made some time ago, and signals of this kind have been transmitted to Kiev.\u201d In other words, everything that\u2019s played out thus far is political choreography.<\/p>\n

Although the risk of World War III breaking out by miscalculation continues to grow as a result of these irresponsible Western escalations, it\u2019s\u00a0unlikely that Putin will radically respond<\/a>\u00a0by authorizing his forces to hit targets inside of NATO, let alone launch a nuclear first strike.<\/strong> If he was indeed planning to do so, then there wouldn\u2019t be the need for this political choreography, he\u2019d just do it, plus this latest escalation\u00a0won\u2019t result in reshaping<\/a>\u00a0the\u00a0military-strategic dynamics<\/a>\u00a0of this proxy war in NATO and Ukraine\u2019s favor.<\/p>\n

Accordingly, there\u2019s no reason for Putin to react as radically as some are worried that he will, with the most that he might do is finally authorize a US-inspired \u201cshock-and-awe\u201d bombing campaign or at least maybe hit a few bridges across the Dnieper. Even that might not happen though and he could instead just announce another round of\u00a0partial<\/a>\u00a0mobilization<\/a>\u00a0of experienced reservists like he did two years ago. Another possibility could be\u00a0curtailing or cutting off<\/a>\u00a0critical mineral and energy exports to the West.<\/p>\n

With these much more realistic options in mind, Putin\u2019s political choreography can be seen as an attempt to pressure Kiev into complying with his\u00a0ceasefire precondition<\/a>\u00a0from this summer by withdrawing from all the territory that Moscow claims as its own.<\/strong> If that fails and he doesn\u2019t ramp up bombing, then the secondary motive might be to prepare his people for another round of mobilization. By describing NATO as being in a state of war with Russia, he might also be\u00a0hinting<\/a>\u00a0that he\u2019ll curtail resource exports to it.<\/p>\n

As for the West\u2019s political choreography, it appears to be yet another example of \u201cboiling the frog\u201d by gradually crossing every one of Russia\u2019s so-called \u201cred lines\u201d. This helps manage Western public opinion given the unprecedented nature of this proxy war and give Russia the time to prepare for the next escalation so that it\u2019s not caught totally off guard and thus considers \u201coverreacting\u201d like some hawks have wanted. Observers should remember that the West is only just now doing this 2.5 years down the line.<\/p>\n

Seeing as how their specialists would be handling pretty much everything connected to these long-range missiles, the fact that this hasn\u2019t happened earlier speaks to their decisionmakers\u2019 desire to control the escalation ladder with Russia, at least in terms of how they see it. Going through with it at this point is pure vindictiveness to inflict as much damage on Russia, including to its civilians, for foiling their strategic defeat of it. Once again, it won\u2019t be game-changer, it just gives Kiev the chance to kill more Russians.<\/p>\n

Reflecting on everything, this experience should teach observers that political choreography is only for the sake of perception management since backchannels exist for rival parties to discreetly convey real threats to one another, some of which might then be reaffirmed in public for soft power purposes. <\/strong>Rarely is everything as clear-cut as it seems, with it almost always being the case that much more is going on behind the scenes than meets the eye.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nSun, 09\/15\/2024 – 14:00<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bhttps:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/geopolitical\/russia-west-are-engaged-political-choreography-over-ukraines-use-long-range-weapons<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Russia & The West Are Engaged In Political Choreography Over Ukraine’s Use Of Long-Range Weapons Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack, Rarely is everything as…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":1490043,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1490042","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1490042","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1490042"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1490042\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1490043"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1490042"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1490042"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1490042"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}