{"id":1495793,"date":"2024-10-12T19:10:00","date_gmt":"2024-10-12T23:10:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1495793"},"modified":"2024-10-12T19:10:00","modified_gmt":"2024-10-12T23:10:00","slug":"cooler-heads-must-prevail-between-u-s-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/cooler-heads-must-prevail-between-u-s-iran\/1495793\/","title":{"rendered":"Cooler Heads Must Prevail Between U.S. & Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"

Cooler Heads Must Prevail Between U.S. & Iran<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Authored by James Durso via RealClearWorld<\/a>,<\/em><\/p>\n

The Israeli newspaper Haaretz<\/em><\/a> recently declared, \u201cIsrael is trapping Iran and America.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

If that is true, perhaps the U.S. and Iran should cooperate to extricate themselves from that trap.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

In the wake of the most recent exchange of fire between Israel and Iran, the region is on the cusp of more violence and instability, but who benefits from the chaos?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Previously, the Arab Gulf states may have been happy to see Iran distracted from fighting an American ally, but that\u2019s not likely anymore. First came the \u00a0China-brokered deal<\/a> in 2023<\/strong> that restarted diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Then last week the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members declared their neutrality<\/a> in the new round Iran-Israel fighting<\/strong>, and at the Doha meeting<\/a> between the Saudi foreign minister and Iran\u2019s president the minister stated, “We aim to permanently close the chapter on our differences and focus on resolving issues, developing relations as two friendly and brotherly countries.”<\/p>\n

Who\u2019s left? The U.S., Israel, and the defense contractors.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The defense contractors will do as they\u2019re told, and Israel appears locked on a path of escalation, partly to restore deterrence vis-\u00e0-vis<\/em> Iran but also to keep Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu out of jail.<\/p>\n

That leaves the Americans to reassert stability as only Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu benefits from the fragmentation of the region.<\/strong> Regional chaos encourages Jerusalem to appeal to Washington for even more subventions of cash and transfers of weapons, the latter of which may be reducing the U.S. inventories to a dangerously low level. Unrest will also motivate Israel\u2019s American confederates to press Washington for policies that are good for Israel (so they think) but that erode U.S. influence abroad.<\/p>\n

Netanyahu<\/a> recently spoke to the Iranian people, \u201cIran will be free soon\u2026\u201d and regime-changey talk like that should be all Washington needs to back away from any association with a coup in Tehran<\/strong> as it made that mistake once before and is still living with the result.<\/p>\n

In 1953, the American Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and Britain\u2019s MI-6 sponsored a coup<\/a> to depose Iran\u2019s Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh, an idiosyncratic politician with authoritarian tendencies, the concern being the possibility of Communist influence on his government. The concern about the influence of the communist Tudeh Party was exaggerated, but the Americans also probably wanted to help Britain retain control of the Anglo-Persian Oil Company and reverse the 1951 nationalization of Iran\u2019s oil industry.<\/p>\n

The Americans installed another idiosyncratic authoritarian, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, as the Shah<\/strong> and he showed his gratitude in 1973 when he convinced the other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to double the price<\/a> of a barrel of oil from $5.11 to $11.65.<\/p>\n

The foreign imposition of an absolutist monarch stirred popular discontent that contributed to the successful 1979 Iranian Revolution (and 444-day hostage crisis) and arrival of an even more absolutist theocracy that promptly used Iran\u2019s oil and natural gas resources to fund its aggressive designs at home and abroad.<\/p>\n

So, Washington tried to stop communist influence in an oil-producing state on the Soviet Union\u2019s border and help its British ally that was seeing its empire dissolve, and ended up losing two times<\/strong>: the West lost control of Iran\u2019s energy resources and set the stage for the overthrow of the Shah.<\/p>\n

Fool me once\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei<\/a> declared the Islamic Republic considers nuclear weapons un-Islamic but we are only a revised fatwa<\/em> away from a new policy if Israel pursues escalation and regime change. Saudi Arabia\u2019s crown prince Mohammed bin Salman<\/a> declared, \u201c\u2026without a doubt, if Iran developed a nuclear bomb, we would follow suit as soon as possible.”<\/strong><\/p>\n

Saudi Arabia<\/a> is a non-nuclear-weapon state party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and a move to develop nuclear weapons would incur sanctions, though it will be a grand opportunity for the world to ask Washington why it lets Jews (Israel) and Hindus (India) slide, but sanctions Muslims (Pakistan<\/a>, Saudi Arabia.)<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s vice president, and former foreign minister, Javad Zarif<\/a>, agrees with Haaretz <\/em>and says Iran will not fall into the Israeli trap, and that \u201c[Israel] thrives on tension, on conflict, and we will not provide it to them.\u201d<\/strong> Zarif also says that Hamas will not be defeated which aligns with former Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert<\/a> who declared the destruction of Hamas \u201cwill not be achieved.\u201d<\/p>\n

Netanyahu is bringing people together but not the way he hoped.<\/p>\n

And Israel\u2019s indifference to civilian casualties in Gaza and Lebanon may rebound to America\u2019s disadvantage. <\/strong>The Pentagon\u2019s lawyers and spokesmen have spent two decades since 9\/11 hand-waving away criticism of excess civilian deaths by piously declaring that bombing that wedding party was a real shame but it was \u201ccollateral damage\u201d and is \u201cin accordance with the Law of Armed Conflict<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n

In the future it may be harder to dismiss tragic follies like the U.S. trying five times to kill <\/strong>Qari Hussai<\/strong>n<\/a>, a deputy commander of the Pakistani Taliban, before getting lucky the sixth time, but in the process killing 128 unlucky people, 13 of them children<\/strong>. The West\u2019s power has allowed it to take advantage of the \u201cdouble standard of terrorism and state violence<\/a>\u201d where terrorism is what you call the other guy\u2019s weapon of choice. But the reaction to Israel\u2019s careless targeting and its American patron\u2019s likewise unenviable track record in Iraq and Afghanistan (and its indulgence of Saudi Arabia\u2019s attacks on Yemeni civilians), may erode the \u201cdistinction between state violence and terrorism,\u201d and expose civilian officials and military commander to legal jeopardy. \u00a0<\/p>\n

If the U.S. decides to work with Iran to lessen tensions it will then be pressured to restart the nuclear deal with Tehran. <\/strong>In that case, it will have to craft an entirely new arrangement as Iran has steamed ahead with nuclear research and development after Washington scrapped its commitments to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action<\/a> in 2018, and Europe maintained the restrictive measures that were to have expired in 2023 (though Iran didn\u2019t help its case by expelling inspectors<\/a> from the International Atomic Energy Agency.)<\/p>\n

There is a lot of bad faith to go around.<\/strong><\/p>\n

If the U.S. can start talking to Iran and avert Israeli escalation that will kick off a region-wide war, it will have to get used to a greater role for Russia and China have declared their interest in supporting peace in the region, and conveniently undercutting the U.S. in the process. Iran will continue to follow a multi-vector foreign policy and privilege relations with Russia, China, and the BRICS countries, and eschew the diplomatic monogamy demanded by Washington<\/strong> which views diplomatic relations as a reward for complaint behavior instead of a way to pursue the national interest.<\/p>\n

And would U.S. forces be ready and able to attack Iran? No. <\/strong>Ammunition transfers to Ukraine and Israel and the attacks on Houthi forces in Yemen have depleted U.S. inventories; the only ship that can replenish aviation fuel for aircraft carriers ran aground<\/a> and is out of service, and the U.S. Navy<\/a> recently sidelined 17 supply ships over a crew shortage.<\/strong>; the GCC declaration of neutrality may mean its airspace is \u00a0closed to U.S. forces poised to attack Iran (Tehran has called “unacceptable” the use of GCC airspace or military bases against Iran); and local suppliers of military-grade aviation fuel may not provision U.S. forces.<\/p>\n

Another year to remember is 1980, when Iraq invaded Iran<\/strong> (Iraq received extensive\u00a0 U.S. support<\/a> after 1982.) The invasion was seen as a direct threat to Iran’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and fostered a sense of national unity and solidarity among Iranians. The war, which lasted until 1988, became a rallying point for the Iranian population,<\/strong> who mobilized in defense of their country and the Islamic Revolution. The conflict also helped consolidate the power of the clerical leadership in Iran, as they framed the war as a defense of Islam and the revolution.\u00a0<\/p>\n

A U.S. attack on Iran, especially if it is seen in the service of Israel, will be a godsend for Ayatollah Khamenei who will be spoiled for choice: America will be not just the \u201cGreat Satan\u201d but also the \u201cNew Saddam.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

William Burns<\/a>, the director of the CIA reported this week, \u201c\u2026we do not see evidence today that the supreme leader [Ayatollah Ali Khamenei] has reversed the decision that he took at the end of 2003 to suspend the weaponization program.\u201d If that is the case, Israel is not in extremis and there is no need for the U.S. to spearhead an attack on Iran.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

And on top of all that, a recent poll by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs<\/a> found, \u201cWhether attacked by its neighbors or Tehran, majorities of Americans oppose using US troops to come to Israel\u2019s defense<\/strong>.\u201d In the wake of two decades of war, a ruinous bout of inflation, and the destruction of Hurricane Helene, Americans may be in the mood for what former president Barack Obama called \u201cnation-building here at home.\u201d \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

They say, \u201cCash rules everything around me,\u201d and Israel\u2019s intentions for Iran are no exception<\/strong>. Iran has proven skills in nuclear technology, and rockets and missiles (as Israel understands after 1 October.) Iran and Israel are the two key native sources of technology in the Middle East and it is important to the recovery of Israel\u2019s post-war economy that Iran remain isolated and unable to be an economic competitor. And Iran has over 90 million potential consumers and employees to Israel\u2019s nine million, and may be a more attractive target for investors.<\/p>\n

The Jerusalem Post<\/em><\/a> reports, \u201cThe US has reportedly offered Israel a “compensation package” if it refrains from attacking certain targets in Iran,<\/strong>\u201d which is an admission of Washington\u2019s inability to halt escalation. If true, Jerusalem will continue to demand more compensation to prevent its next move, and then the move after that\u2026 Extortionists do not stop after the first payment.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Without a moment\u2019s delay, Washington and Tehran should put aside their differences and work today to avert what Ehud Olmert calls \u201ca war for his [Netanyahu\u2019s] personal gains.\u201d<\/p>\n

James Durso (@james_durso) is a regular commentator on foreign policy and national security matters. Mr. Durso served in the U.S. Navy for 20 years and has worked in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nSat, 10\/12\/2024 – 15:10<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bhttps:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/geopolitical\/cooler-heads-must-prevail-between-us-iran<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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