{"id":1496866,"date":"2024-10-17T20:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-10-18T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1496866"},"modified":"2024-10-17T20:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-10-18T00:00:00","slug":"gold-hits-new-record-high-dollar-bond-yields-soar-on-good-data-trump-trade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/gold-hits-new-record-high-dollar-bond-yields-soar-on-good-data-trump-trade\/1496866\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Hits New Record High; Dollar & Bond Yields Soar On ‘Good’-Data, ‘Trump-Trade’"},"content":{"rendered":"

Gold Hits New Record High; Dollar & Bond Yields Soar On ‘Good’-Data, ‘Trump-Trade’<\/span><\/p>\n

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‘Soft’ (Philly Fed & NAHB) and ‘Hard’ data (Retail Sales, Initial Claims) improved today but manufacturing production shit the bed…<\/p>\n

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Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Ignoring the manufacturing slump, this data reinforced the ‘no landing’ narrative and pushed rate-cut expectations notably (hawkishly) lower…<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Additionally, The Trump Trade has taken hold of the narrative for now…<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Goldman’s Chloe Garber told clients today that Polymarket is priced at 60\/40, there is ~1.5% upside to 65\/35 odds, and 4% downside to 50\/50 odds.<\/p>\n

“I think there is a possibility this pair could go to the July highs before the election, but it would require some terrible polls for Kamala Harris, whereas a lot of work has been done. <\/em><\/p>\n

Clients are betting this direction because a 60\/40 market going to 100 delta is still an enticing proposition whereas a coin flip is just hard.”<\/em><\/p>\n

Importantly, she added that this local Trump trend hasn’t been driven by earnings revisions<\/strong>…revisions have been slightly negative since the end of July, so if 3Q earning season matters, these stocks could get affected.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Small Caps underperformed today (for a change), but all the majors ended well off their highs of the day. The S&P ended unchanged and Nasdaq marginally higher as The Dow hit another record closing high….<\/p>\n

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…notably, the Nasdaq outperformance today comes at a key support level relative to Russell 2000…<\/p>\n

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Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

…and at the same time, Polymarket sees the odds of a ‘Red Sweep” also soaring…<\/strong><\/p>\n

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…which helped send yields soaring on the day, led by the long-end (30Y +10bps). On the week, the short-end remains the laggard…<\/p>\n

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Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

…the dollar index continued to charge higher (up 12 of the last 14 days)…<\/p>\n

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Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

…and, rather oddly given the dollar’s move, gold surged to yet another new record high. just shy of $2700…<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

The last few weeks have been very unusual with the correlation between the dollar and gold spiking dramatically…<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Bitcoin limped slightly lower on the day after topping $68,000…<\/p>\n

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Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Oil prices went nowhere for the second day in a row with WTI trading in a very narrow $70-71 range…<\/p>\n

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Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Finally, stocks are aggressively pricing in a ‘Trump victory’ versus a ‘Harris victory’…<\/p>\n

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Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

While it is ‘easy’ to manipulate the noisy and game-able prediction markets (given their low liquidity), it is arguable that the various stocks in these baskets from Goldman Sachs are ‘game-able’, suggesting there is more than just a whale or two driving this sentiment narrative.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nThu, 10\/17\/2024 – 16:00<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bhttps:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/market-recaps\/gold-hits-new-record-high-dollar-bond-yields-soar-good-data-trump-trade<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Gold Hits New Record High; Dollar & Bond Yields Soar On ‘Good’-Data, ‘Trump-Trade’ ‘Soft’ (Philly Fed & NAHB) and ‘Hard’ data (Retail Sales, Initial Claims)…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":1496867,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1496866","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1496866","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1496866"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1496866\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1496867"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1496866"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1496866"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1496866"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}