{"id":1497266,"date":"2024-10-19T16:15:00","date_gmt":"2024-10-19T20:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1497266"},"modified":"2024-10-19T16:15:00","modified_gmt":"2024-10-19T20:15:00","slug":"trumps-polymarket-surge-powered-by-30-million-bet-by-just-4-accounts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/trumps-polymarket-surge-powered-by-30-million-bet-by-just-4-accounts\/1497266\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump’s Polymarket Surge Powered By $30 Million Bet By Just 4 Accounts"},"content":{"rendered":"

Trump’s Polymarket Surge Powered By $30 Million Bet By Just 4 Accounts <\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Few recent developments in the 2024 White House race have been as swift and seemingly prophetical as a huge October swing<\/a> toward Donald Trump in the crypto-based Polymarket online betting marketplace<\/strong>. From even odds at the start of the month, the odds of a Trump victory have surged to 60%, while the odds of Kamala Harris win have fallen to 40%.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Now, the Wall Street Journal<\/em><\/a> is reporting\u00a0the move is largely the work of just four accounts that have together plowed $30 million into bets <\/strong>on the former president. What’s more, the timing of the four accounts’ moves suggests they could be controlled by a single owner.\u00a0<\/strong>Polymarket has engaged outside experts to scrutinize transactions in presidential election betting, an unnamed source told the Journal<\/em>.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n

The four accounts have concentrated on bets that Trump will come out atop the electoral college count, but have also dabbled in side-wagers on individual state contests, as well as taking some flyers on Trump winning the popular vote<\/strong>. That’s a long shot indeed, as Polymarket currently gives Trump only a 32% chance<\/a> of doing that.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s strong reason to believe they are the same entity,\u201d<\/strong> Arkham Intelligence<\/a> CEO Miguel Morel tells the Journal:\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

The accounts betting big on Trump\u2014Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie\u2014were all funded by deposits from Kraken<\/strong>, a U.S.-based crypto exchange, according to Arkham. They behave in a similar fashion,<\/strong> systematically placing frequent bets on Trump and stepping up the size of their bets at the same time<\/strong>, Arkham found. The oldest of the accounts was created in June, while the newest was created this month.<\/em><\/p>\n

In its report, the Journal <\/em>worked to substantiate the notion that\u00a0the concentrated bets represent some form of intentional narrative-control scheme, saying “[Trump’s] surge<\/strong> might be a mirage manufactured by a group<\/strong> of four Polymarket accounts,” a view embraced by crypto investor Adam Cochran, a self-described right-of-center Harris-backer.\u00a0<\/p>\n

They call it Polypoll or @Polymarket<\/a> or something
pic.twitter.com\/ojeGMVMmPb<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Smokey (@Smokey_titan) October 19, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n

To its credit, however, the Journal<\/em> also tapped Rutgers University stats professor Harry Crane, who noted that other betting markets also have Trump in the lead, and that big bettors routinely nudge all manner of market odds. “Purchasing a large number of shares on one outcome does not require any ulterior motive or effort to manipulate the market,\u201d<\/strong>\u00a0he said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Americans are officially barred<\/a> from Polymarket, and a source “familiar with the matter” has assured Reuters<\/em><\/a> that the four accounts behind the $30 million wave of bets are not owned by an American,\u00a0<\/strong>a conclusion that rests on the firm’s practice of certifying large traders to verify they aren’t using VPNs to hide their origins.\u00a0<\/p>\n

As the Polymarket surge began in early October, Trump-backer Elon Musk publicized<\/a>\u00a0Trump’s then-3% lead in the odds, describing betting markets as “more accurate than polls,<\/strong> as actual money is on the line.” In addition to the 60% chance of a Trump victory, Polymarket now has the GOP with an 81% chance of taking over the Senate<\/a>, but gives\u00a0Democrats a 51% chance of controlling the House of Representatives<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nSat, 10\/19\/2024 – 12:15<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bhttps:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/political\/trumps-polymarket-surge-powered-30-million-bet-just-4-accounts<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Trump’s Polymarket Surge Powered By $30 Million Bet By Just 4 Accounts Few recent developments in the 2024 White House race have been as swift…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":1497267,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1497266","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1497266","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1497266"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1497266\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1497267"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1497266"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1497266"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1497266"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}