{"id":1500622,"date":"2024-11-05T22:40:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-06T03:40:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1500622"},"modified":"2024-11-05T22:40:00","modified_gmt":"2024-11-06T03:40:00","slug":"after-the-ball-is-over","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/after-the-ball-is-over\/1500622\/","title":{"rendered":"After The Ball Is Over…"},"content":{"rendered":"

After The Ball Is Over…<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Authored by Thomas Neuburger via “God’s Spies’ Substack,<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

What does the country look like, four years down the road, after a Trump or Harris victory?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Many people have made election predictions (some in\u00a0abundance<\/a>), but few have looked at the post-electoral state.<\/p>\n

What happens if Harris wins? What does a Trump II world look like?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

I offer below\u00a0what Ryan Grim sees<\/a>\u00a0post-November. I think in the main he\u2019s right. His virtue is that he avoids conventional thinking and looks at what\u2019s real.<\/p>\n

The whole piece went out to his Drop Site News subscribers and is also available there. But I\u2019d like to offer it here; I know our readers are thoughtful and decidedly unconstrained by conventional ways. No one wants to fall prey to \u201cwhat everyone knows to be true\u201d without close examination.<\/p>\n

Grim\u2019s analysis, with his permission, is printed in full below. Some comments first.<\/p>\n

A Pyrrhic victory<\/h2>\n

Grim holds that if Harris wins, it will work like a loss. First, she\u2019d likely rule without House and\/or Senate support.<\/p>\n

Without the Senate, Harris will have a hard time confirming a dog catcher, let along [sic] a judge or a cabinet nominee. With the Senate but without the House, she won\u2019t be able to get any of her agenda through. Worse, the debt ceiling will be hit in January, before she\u2019s even inaugurated.<\/em>\u00a0<\/p>\n

Would Democrats, especially decidedly unpopulist ones, be willing to take advantage of the advantages that populism-by-executive order confers? They haven\u2019t yet. Grim is doubtful they will \u2014 to do so, Harris would have to find \u201cpopulist Jesus\u201d \u2014 and I would agree. Democrats are self-defined as the party of status quo Jesus. \u201cNothing will fundamentally change,\u201d we\u2019re regularly told, a contrast to the change their electoral opponents would bring.<\/p>\n

For that plan to work, people have to like what they see. Playing it safe in a land this dissatisfied won\u2019t produce lasting wins.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Grim also thinks a Harris win now tees up a Republican win in 2028.<\/strong><\/p>\n

A status quo powerless Democrat with no personal base of support (\u201csupport for Kamala is more accurately described as opposition to Trump and support for Democratic policies generally\u201d), ruling a party reduced to \u201can upper-middle-class center,\u201d is not a winning combination, especially if it follows a term where little gets done.<\/p>\n

What kind of dictatorship?<\/h2>\n

After a Trump win, many predict a dictatorship. Grim disagrees:<\/p>\n

Even with two new justices, the Supreme Court is not willing to turn power over to him. Trump is their tool to wield power, and they will be content to see him retire from the field. Trump also lacks the support of the military leadership. Without the court or the military, he has no path to hold on to power illegally.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u201cWithout the court or the military\u201d \u2014 sounds pretty third-world to me. That\u2019s how Egypt is ruled. Just wanted to point that out.<\/p>\n

The Realignment<\/h2>\n

This will take much more thought, but the start point is here:<\/p>\n

[T]he class realignment already underway \u2026 leaves a coalition of the working class and the super rich in the Republican party. That\u2019s an extremely dangerous coalition, and while it will be hampered by Trump\u2019s defeat, it would be structurally strengthened longterm by a Harris victory[.]<\/em><\/p>\n

What it looks like when all the ripe apples have dropped is anyone\u2019s guess. Grim thinks its possible that Republicans, if Democrats keep shedding their base, could \u201clock in generational power\u201d in 2028.<\/strong><\/p>\n

We\u2019ll see if that\u2019s true: it\u2019s a \u201cdangerous coalition\u201d indeed. What happens with working class Sanders populists \u2014 yes, there are many; Sanders might have wiped the floor with 2016 Trump \u2014 is clearly up in the air. Rich material for a novelist.<\/p>\n

The NatSec state<\/h2>\n

Here Grim is silent, but we don\u2019t have to be. At this point, no president can oppose the cemented-in apparatus, our heroes who \u201cmaintain security.\u201d (Trump on Joe Rogan talked about how he was convinced not to release the JFK files as he first intended. Listen between the lines and you hear, \u201cSir, you don\u2019t want to do that.\u201d)<\/em><\/p>\n

To the extent there\u2019s real rebellion in the U.S., there will be real repression, more than what\u2019s already here.\u00a0What elites do abroad, they will do at home<\/a>, given a sufficiently media-marginalized target. (The military calls this \u201cpreparing the battlefield<\/a>.\u201d)<\/p>\n

There are only two end points historically for this kind of collision \u2014 a state in chaos (think \u201860s and \u201870s rebellion) or a locked-down, Stasi society, surveilled and policed. Ask yourself, how would\u00a0today\u2019s\u00a0guardians of security handle the 1960s? Gloves on or gloves off?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Now for Grim\u2019s analysis. If you want just his bottom line, skip down to \u201cWhat It Means<\/a>\u201d. Enjoy.<\/p>\n

*\u00a0 *\u00a0 *<\/p>\n

Ryan Grim’s election predictions<\/a><\/strong><\/h2>\n

What will realistically happen if Harris or Trump wins<\/em><\/p>\n

Just like Jeff Bezos, I would never tell you who to vote for. You don\u2019t need that from me anyway. What I can do though is offer a few thoughts on what might happen if either candidate is elected, which I haven\u2019t seen anybody try to do with any seriousness.<\/p>\n

According to Elon Musk, if Kamala Harris wins, there\u2019ll never be another election, and according to lots of Democrats, if Trump wins, he\u2019ll turn into a dictator. Both are wrong. The truth is more complicated but not necessarily less frightening. In tonight\u2019s newsletter, I\u2019ll game out what that might look like\u2026<\/p>\n

If Kamala wins:<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Congress goes<\/strong><\/h4>\n

If Harris wins, the chance she also takes Congress relies on a number of miraculous upsets. Joe Manchin is leaving the Senate, and his Senate seat is leaving the Democratic caucus for the rest of all of our lives. That takes Dems from 51 down to 50 seats. Jon Tester won extremely narrow races in Montana in 2006, 2012, and 2018, and he\u2019s about as good a rural politician as you\u2019re going to find, but Montana\u2019s rightward drift might be too much for him to overcome. Polls have him down. If they\u2019re right, he\u2019s toast, and that brings Democrats down to 49 seats.\u00a0<\/p>\n

To get back to 50 \u2013 which would let Tim Walz break ties \u2013 they\u2019d need to hold on to Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin (all doable, even likely) but also win in either Florida or Texas \u2013 or Nebraska.\u00a0<\/p>\n

If you\u2019ve been\u00a0following our coverage of the Nebraska Senate race<\/a>, you know independent populist Dan Osborn has a genuine shot at upsetting the incumbent Republican. Internal polls I\u2019ve heard about from both sides, however, suggest Trump\u2019s ads tagging him as a \u201cDemocrat in disguise\u201d may have done enough damage to blunt his momentum. If he wins though, I\u2019m confident he\u2019d caucus with Democrats, and that would make a majority. But he\u2019s still a longshot.<\/p>\n

Colin Allred, the former NFL linebacker and member of Congress, has a credible chance of beating Ted Cruz. The question will be whether pollsters missed an influx of Democratic donors to the Lone Star state. If they did and the polls are slightly off, he could win. But he\u2019s also a longshot.<\/p>\n

Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell could theoretically pull off an upset in Florida, but man is that hard to see. So Democrats would need one of those four longshots\u2014Montana, Nebraska, Texas, or Florida\u2014to come through.<\/p>\n

And then they\u2019d have to win the House, too.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Without the Senate, Harris will have a hard time confirming a dog catcher, let along a judge or a cabinet nominee. With the Senate but without the House, she won\u2019t be able to get any of her agenda through. Worse, the debt ceiling will be hit in January, before she\u2019s even inaugurated.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Bankruptcy?<\/strong><\/h4>\n

With control of Congress, Republicans will play economic-armageddon brinksmanship, take a chunk out of the global economy, get our credit-ratings downgraded, and probably extract a chunk of fiscal flesh in exchange for simply agreeing to pay the bills that are due. The other possibility, that we actually go over the cliff and get a mini or major financial crisis can\u2019t be ruled out.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Antitrust<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Harris will then be left to govern strictly from the executive branch. She\u2019d probably have to keep Lina Khan, whether she wants her as chair of the FTC or not, since Republicans wouldn\u2019t confirm a replacement anyway. Her victory would be meaningful for climate action, as she\u2019d continue to disperse and execute the clean energy policy and subsidies from the Inflation Reduction Act, while Trump would smother it (or send it all to Elon Musk?).<\/p>\n

Taxes<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Trump\u2019s tax cuts also expire during Harris\u2019s first two years in office, meaning she\u2019ll negotiate their extension. There, she has the advantage, because if she does nothing, the old tax policy snaps back into place. Her ability to do anything at all her first two years would be limited to this tax realm and, potentially, immigration. She\u2019s likely to sign a tough border and immigration bill into law.\u00a0<\/p>\n

It\u2019s hard to see how she emerges from this two years with anything higher than an approval rating in the low-30s. Given she has no organic base of support\u2014support for Kamala is more accurately described as opposition to Trump and support for Democratic policies generally\u2014it\u2019s impossible to say how low her floor is. We might find out.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Ukraine<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Russia is making major advances in Ukraine and the U.S. public is no longer interested in the war. Harris will probably have to end it with some sort of ceasefire\/non-deal that leaves Ukraine in a wildly worse off position than they\u2019d have been in if they\u2019d made a deal in early 2022\u2014a deal the U.S. scuttled at the cost of hundreds of thousands of lives.\u00a0Or she could prove she\u2019s a tough commander-in-chief\u2014leader of the \u201cmost lethal military\u201d ever, as she puts it\u2014by escalating the conflict and striking deeper inside Russia, risking nuclear war. Let\u2019s hope it\u2019s not that. The same dynamic could be at play with China, with much of her party leadership egging on confrontation.<\/p>\n

The Mideast<\/strong><\/h4>\n

I interviewed\u00a0Israeli journalist Amir Tibon recently,<\/a>\u00a0who said that Netanyahu made a bet sometime around December that Trump would be elected president and therefore he was willing to take whatever minor grief he suffered from Biden for ignoring all the U.S. entreaties to protect civilians, allow in humanitarian aid, and negotiate in good faith toward a ceasefire. There was little grief. But, said Tibon, if Harris wins, Netanyahu will be exposed politically, and he predicted his government would collapse \u201cwithin months.\u201d A Harris win would signal to Netanyahu\u2019s coalition partners that two of their big dreams will be at least put on hold for four years. Those two major ambitions, Tibon said, are reform of the Israeli courts in order to subsume them to the judiciary, and the Israeli settlement of Gaza. With those ambitions stymied, Netanyahu\u2019s coalition becomes untenable.<\/p>\n

Foiling Netanyahu\u2019s bet on Trump is the most persuasive case I\u2019ve heard for a vote for Harris. The problem, though, is what comes next. Tibon is confident a candidate from a coalition that does not includes the ultra-orthodox or settler movements would triumph and that any new government that replaced Netanyahu would be similarly supportive of the various Israeli war efforts, but more willing to cut a ceasefire-for-hostages deal. But I checked Tibon\u2019s theory with people in Israel to the right of Tibon, and they agreed that the Netanyahu government would indeed fall and new elections would be called\u2014but that Netanyahu would win those new elections.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Abortion Rights<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Harris wouldn\u2019t be able to get anything through Congress, but having Democrats control the Justice Department and Health and Human Services would put some of the brakes on right-wing states pushing ahead with increasingly aggressive abortion restrictions, including laws that make it a crime to \u201ctraffick\u201d a minor across state lines to get an abortion. Such laws are plainly unconstitutional, but Trump\u2019s DoJ would do nothing to stop them, whereas a Harris administration would.<\/p>\n

Midterms<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Every president faces brutal headwinds in their first midterm, and Republican gains are the most likely result of the 2026 midterms. The only pickup opportunities in the Senate would be in Maine and North Carolina, and both would be unwinnable in a Republican reaction year. The good news for Dems is they don\u2019t have to defend many seats \u2013 Georgia and Michigan \u2013 but they\u2019d still fall that much further behind in the House.\u00a0<\/p>\n

2028<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Republicans would be the heavy favorites in 2028. Democrats seem to hate primaries, so maybe Harris doesn\u2019t face one even if she\u2019s in the low 30s, with Democratic rivals holding their fire for 2032. The most likely outcome, then, of a Harris victory in 2024 is a Republican sweep in 2029, giving them a trifecta and the opportunity to lock in Supreme Court control for several generations. That court could issue abortion-related rulings that would make\u00a0Dobbs<\/em>\u00a0look downright liberal.<\/p>\n

If Trump wins:<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Let\u2019s take seriously what Trump will actually do, versus what his opponents claim he\u2019ll do. Some of the more lurid warnings, I think, are wildly overblown. But not all of them. It\u2019s extremely likely he will assign significant resources toward a roundup of immigrants, and will do so in a flamboyant fashion, deploying the military if he can get away with it. If he\u2019s extra lucky, there\u2019ll be mass resignations of military brass as a result, allowing him to elevate loyalists.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Stephen Miller, a deeply dangerous and strategic man, will have immense power. Trans rights will be in the crosshairs and so will abortion rights.\u00a0<\/p>\n

I\u2019m less worried about his promise to add a 20 percent tariff to everything. He continues to speak highly of Robert Lighthizer as his top trade adviser, and Lighthizer is very good at what he does. Lighthizer was Trump\u2019s United States Trade Representative and lefty trade hands and unions were generally supportive of his approach, even as they had some disagreements. If Lighthizer guides trade policy, it won\u2019t be reckless.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s tax cuts from his first term will also come up for renewal, and I\u2019d expect he\u2019ll successfully extend and deepen them, particularly for the rich and corporations.\u00a0<\/p>\n

He will fire an enormous number of federal employees. Whether he can hire enough to replace them is a different question, but at minimum he\u2019ll be able to break a lot of federal agencies.\u00a0<\/p>\n

He\u2019ll go after the American university system with a vengeance. Look at what Chris Rufo has managed to do in Florida under Ron DeSantis for a flavor of what Trump could do nationally.\u00a0<\/p>\n

He will rescind or simply not deploy much of the climate spending included in the Inflation Reduction Act. He hates eclectic vehicles, though his alliance with Elon Musk may protect some of that.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Supreme Court<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Sam Alito and Clarence Thomas will retire, allowing Trump to appoint at least two more justices.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Trump, however, will not have the capacity to become a dictator. Even with two new justices, the Supreme Court is not willing to turn power over to him. Trump is their tool to wield power, and they will be content to see him retire from the field. Trump also lacks the support of the military leadership. Without the court or the military, he has no path to hold on to power illegally.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Voters will reject his displays of extremism at the polls in the 2026 midterms, likely delivering the House and Senate both to Democrats. They\u2019ll impeach him immediately, just as Republicans will impeach Harris, but neither effort will have enough support in the Senate to go anywhere. In 2028, Republican voters will choose between J.D. Vance and opponents like Ted Cruz (unless he loses his Senate race, of course).\u00a0<\/p>\n

The economy will probably take a cyclical downturn toward the end of Trump\u2019s term, and he\u2019ll be deeply unpopular. Democrats would be favored to win in 2028 and likely hold Congress, too.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Mideast<\/strong><\/h4>\n

It\u2019s impossible to predict what Trump will do here. On the one hand, he calls himself \u201cthe candidate of peace\u201d\u2014on the other, he has said Biden\u2019s biggest problem has been that he\u2019s been\u00a0too tough\u00a0<\/em>on Netanyahu and he should let him take the gloves off. Trump has been mad at Netanyahu for congratulating Biden on his win, but he knows Bibi has been rooting for him and doing what he can to help him win, and in Trump\u2019s world alone, that means a lot to him. You know Trump as well as I do, I\u2019ll let you guess on this one.<\/p>\n

Ukraine<\/strong><\/h4>\n

The conventional wisdom is that Putin will strike a deal to end the war if Trump wins, on favorable terms to Russia, given how much ground they\u2019ve gained. On Ukraine, the CW is probably right.<\/p>\n

China<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Trump will do way more jawboning of China than Harris would, but he seems to have no appetite for a war. Let\u2019s hope that prevails.<\/p>\n

What It Means<\/strong><\/h2>\n

So far, we\u2019ve talked about the near-term future relying on historical precedent. That only gets us so far. We also have to look at the coalitional trends underway and ask how a victory by each candidate influences each. If Harris wins, Democrats will be rewarded for having skipped the nominating process and overseeing a genocide in Gaza. They will have done so while embracing the Cheneys and other neocons expelled from the MAGA coalition. They will now have to be understood as a faction of the Democratic coalition. With Democrats already becoming increasingly militaristic, that only pushes the party further toward a confrontational imperial foreign policy.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Harris also ran detectably to Biden\u2019s right when it came to labor, antitrust, and the economy. Winning on that message could convince Democrats that their dalliance with economic populism was unnecessary, which would speed up the class realignment already underway, with more working class voters of all races and genders feeling unrepresented by Democrats, who come to fully stand in for coastal elites. With Democrats representing an upper-middle-class center, that leaves a coalition of the working class and the super rich in the Republican party. That\u2019s an extremely dangerous coalition, and while it will be hampered by Trump\u2019s defeat, it would be structurally strengthened longterm by a Harris victory – unless Harris somehow finds populist Jesus like Biden did. There is still a strong faction of populist-progressives in the Democratic coalition, and Harris\u2019s victory would not be the final word. But a Democrat who comes after Harris could be facing nearly insurmountable odds if Republicans are able to lock in generational power in 2028.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The short version is that there\u2019s reason to be optimistic that Harris may win. There\u2019s reason to be scared if she does. Or doesn\u2019t. Hope that helps.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nTue, 11\/05\/2024 – 17:40<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bhttps:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/political\/after-ball-over<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

After The Ball Is Over… Authored by Thomas Neuburger via “God’s Spies’ Substack, What does the country look like, four years down the road, after…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":1500623,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1500622","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/pbimBl-6inA","jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/11\/httpssubstack-post-media.s3.amaz20289829-9n725K.jpeg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1500622","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1500622"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1500622\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1500623"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1500622"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1500622"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1500622"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}