{"id":1500784,"date":"2024-11-06T19:05:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-07T00:05:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1500784"},"modified":"2024-11-06T19:05:00","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T00:05:00","slug":"half-the-us-is-in-ecstasy-half-in-despair-this-is-a-political-revolution","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/half-the-us-is-in-ecstasy-half-in-despair-this-is-a-political-revolution\/1500784\/","title":{"rendered":"“Half The US Is In Ecstasy, Half In Despair: This *IS* A Political Revolution”"},"content":{"rendered":"

“Half The US Is In Ecstasy, Half In Despair: This *IS* A Political Revolution”<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

By Michael Every of Rabobank<\/em><\/p>\n

The best of times, the worst of times<\/h3>\n

\u201cIt was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way–in short, the period was so far like the present period that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

At time of writing, bar a truly unknown unknown that defies all possible electoral logic, Trump has won the 2024 presidential election (according to Decision Desk), and the Republicans also control the Senate, with the House perhaps slightly Democrat. <\/strong>Trump becomes the first person to win, lose, then win the presidency again since 1892, when Cleveland defeated Harrison. He did it with legal cases round his neck, most mainstream media against him, and parts of his own party, and with vastly lower election funding than Harris. Such an anti-establishment election victory is certainly notable<\/em> at the very least, whatever else one can all it.<\/p>\n

The good news is no unwanted waiting, lawyers, crisis, or protests \u2013 <\/strong>yet<\/strong><\/em>. <\/strong>However, half the US is in ecstasy, half in despair, and all the world as polarized. <\/strong>Bloomberg and The Economist will be wearing black for the rest of the week, based on their support for Harris, but recall however you feel, someone else feels the opposite, and that tale of two cities is in one country and on one planet.<\/p>\n

The pundits who called this a \u201cclose\u201d race or made methodologically questionable calls for Harris didn\u2019t flag the huge shift rightwards.<\/strong> Trump won Iowa by 13, rather than losing it by 3, and won the national popular vote <\/em>– and Republicans even took the governorship in Puerto Rico. \u00a0<\/p>\n

Narratives will have to be constructed to explain \u2018how this was possible\u2019.<\/strong> Don\u2019t expect much focus on policy, based on recent history. However, as it\u2019ll be hard to blame the result on Russia when it\u2019s coast-to-coast and north-to-south in America, perhaps it will put on Biden for not stepping down, Harris for not stepping up, or X as Steppenwolf<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Yet ultimately this was down to some people not being able to think how others do<\/strong>: \u201cWho would vote for tariffs when all the Nobel prize winners and The Economist say they are wrong?!<\/em>\u201d \u2013 perhaps the people who lost, or fear losing, their jobs from the free trade by advised those prize-winners and that we-always-give-ourselves-the-prize newspaper? Exhibit A: pollsters vs. the Republican voters who wouldn\u2019t respond to those they don\u2019t trust, and the professionals –again<\/em>– not properly accounting for that trend, or for the low-propensity voters who decided this was the year that they would turn up.<\/p>\n

Yet should anyone really be surprised at an \u2018out-of-the-norm\u2019 electoral outcome<\/strong> that: 1) we were told was 50-50; and 2) at a time when the current president has a voter approval rating of just 41%; three quarters of the country feel it\u2019s on the wrong track; we had such recent high inflation – which many people (apart from RBA Governor Bullock) clearly do not feel is \u201cover\u201d; and cultural and geopolitical wars rage? Did this all go away because of recent ra-ra media positivity and \u201crate cuts\u201d? (As long bond yields have gone higher, by the way.)<\/p>\n

For an example of the political mood, the CNN exit poll answers to \u201cHow do you feel about how things are going in the US?\u201d were \u201cAngry\u201d (29%), \u201cDissatisfied\u201d (43%), \u201cSatisfied\u201d (19%), and \u201cEnthusiastic\u201d (7%). The AP VoteCast poll showed 10% of voters want “small” change, 50% want “substantial change”, and 25% want “complete and total upheaval.\u201d \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Look at the voting data, Trump won the majority of independents; he didn\u2019t see the suburbs shift left; he didn\u2019t suffer (unduly) from the loss of Liz Cheney Republicans; he made most of the white working class Republican, and the Hispanic and part of the Black working class; and as Hispanic voters were a larger share of the vote than Blacks for the first time in US election history, he saw a staggering shift in their votes towards him.<\/strong><\/p>\n

This *is* a political realignment in many senses.<\/strong> That doesn\u2019t mean it\u2019s all for<\/em> Trump, according to many voters interviewed that was the case, but it\u2019s certainly against<\/em> \u201cthis kind of thing\u201d, which covers a great many things, in terms of policy that Trump may want to explore as president. Like tariffs, for example, which we had of course already incorporated into our base case scenario. On fiscal matters, even if one assumes a slight Blue house, there may well be some bipartisan support for some of what Trump would like to do, especially if the popular vote is heading that way.<\/p>\n

Note well, Mr. Market: but of course, it already has: at time of writing, US 10-year yields were +15bp; the dollar was up the most since 2020, with USD\/JPY was -1.5% to 154, EUR\/USD was -1.7% at 1.0743, USD\/CNY was -1.1% at 7.18; Bitcoin was up over 7% to a new record of $72,893; and<\/strong> the Nikkei was +2.4% and the Hang Seng -1.8%.<\/strong> In short, not so much \u2018vibes\u2019, \u2018joy\u2019 and \u201cKeep Kamala and Carry on-ala\u201d as \u2018angry\/dissatisfied substantial change\/complete and total upheaval\u2019 and \u201cKeep Trump-ala and Dump and Pump-ala\u201d.<\/p>\n

A Trump victory will also mean geopolitical realignments<\/strong> \u2013 and some are front-running that trade. Israeli PM Netanyahu shocked his country overnight by firing popular Defence Minister Gallant, ostensibly for being too dovish, just hours ahead of what some warn could be a window for Iran to attack it from multiple locations. (He apparently also wants to replace the head of the IDF, and the Attorney General.) The firing was of course about domestic politics: the drafting of the ultra-orthodox, on whom the government relies, and a new major national security\/corruption scandal swirling round Netanyahu.<\/p>\n

Ukraine, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, Oceania, Latin America \u2013 everyone will be thinking about the best of times and the worst of times ahead<\/strong>. Again, this won\u2019t be done with joy in most places, or even keeping calm-ala, but more likely with a combination of both dumping and pumping.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nWed, 11\/06\/2024 – 14:05<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bhttps:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/markets\/half-us-ecstasy-half-despair-political-revolution<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

“Half The US Is In Ecstasy, Half In Despair: This *IS* A Political Revolution” By Michael Every of Rabobank The best of times, the worst…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1500784","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1500784","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1500784"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1500784\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1500784"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1500784"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1500784"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}