{"id":1501288,"date":"2024-11-08T23:25:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-09T04:25:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1501288"},"modified":"2024-11-08T23:25:00","modified_gmt":"2024-11-09T04:25:00","slug":"harvard-prof-says-people-are-better-off-than-they-think-blames-media-for-harris-loss","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/harvard-prof-says-people-are-better-off-than-they-think-blames-media-for-harris-loss\/1501288\/","title":{"rendered":"Harvard Prof Says People Are Better Off Than They Think, Blames Media For Harris Loss"},"content":{"rendered":"

Harvard Prof Says People Are Better Off Than They Think, Blames Media For Harris Loss<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Jason Furman, a Harvard professor and Chair of Obama\u2019s CEA lectures people on how well off they are…<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

You might be thinking this is another Mish satirical fiction post, but it\u2019s not. Here are some\u00a0ideas to ponder<\/a>\u00a0by Jason Furman.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s the Media\u2019s Fault<\/strong><\/h2>\n

\u201cThe macroeconomy is strong\u2013high growth, low unemployment, falling inflation\u2013the best of any advanced economy. But there was a reluctance to present\/understand how families were still not out of the deep inflation hole. And too much masked by cherrypicking\/misleading stats.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cSelective amplification has been rife. How many times did you see a chart of US GDP exceeding other G7 economies?\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cCherrypicking also rife.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cMost wage data shows that wages have, indeed, risen more than prices. BUT, most wage series show that it was well below trend but the few that showed above trend amplified much more often to the exclusion of showing other measures.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cOr the endless repeating of that graph w\/ the increase in spending on manufacturing structures (often shown nominal, ignoring the big price increase) as a sign of a manuf resurgence when other manuf investment was down, manuf employment down & prodn flat.\u201d [Mish Note \u2013 I never once saw that chart and if I didn\u2019t, who did?]<\/p>\n

\u201cYes people suffer from money illusion (thinking they deserve their raises but price increases happen to them).\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cYes, many problems were amplified by misleading media and partisanship.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cI don\u2019t pretend to know what message politicians should use.\u00a0Maybe Harris should have bragged more about how great everything was by using selective data.\u00a0<\/em>Maybe she should have been more negative. I really don\u2019t know.\u201d<\/p>\n

[Mish comment: Gee, I wonder if lying about the economy on top of lawfare, calling Trump a fascist, and pretending to support fracking while saying she could not think of anything she would have done differently than Biden, would have helped. Then again perhaps telling people they were better off than the average person in Germany may have worked. I really don\u2019t know.]<\/p>\n

\u201cA lot of horrendous right-wing misinformation out there.\u201d [Mish comment, note the irony of that statement vs the previous two bullet points.]<\/p>\n

Reflections on Academic Wonderland<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Academic clowns sit in their ivory towers telling people how good they should feel. On top of that they blame the media.<\/p>\n

If I posted a chart of GDP of the US vs Europe, who the heck would have seen it other than those in academic wonderland, stock market investors, and a select few of us on Twitter?<\/p>\n

More to the point, the idea is idiotic. The average person does not give a damn if US GDP is better than Europe. Only those in wonderland would concoct such a construct.<\/p>\n

And seriously, has anyone here seen the \u201cendless repeating\u201d of the chart of manufacturing that Furman refers to?<\/p>\n

Furman proves how much out of touch academia is with the lives of ordinary people.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s Your Money Illusion<\/strong><\/h2>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Hello Jim Bianco, please give Jason Furman a call.<\/p>\n

Blaming the Media for Amplification<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Blaming the media is an amazing hoot of its own. Hell yes, everything was amplified, about 15-1 against Trump.<\/p>\n

The media repeated every charge of racism, lawfare (without calling it lawfare), and finally, things accelerated so much we had Obama and Biden calling Trump a Nazi and a fascist.<\/p>\n

Wage Revisions<\/strong><\/h2>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Real hourly compensation fell 4.2 percent in 2022. And it fell a revised 0.2 percent in 2023.<\/p>\n

Damn that\u00a0BLS Productivity Report<\/a>.<\/p>\n

That report was out yesterday. So, Furman believed things were better in 2023 than they were. But people didn\u2019t. It\u2019s \u201cmoney illusion\u201d says Furman.<\/p>\n

Professor, can we discuss the real world instead of your illusion?<\/p>\n

The Brookings Institute Wonders Why Consumer Sentiment is So Bad<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The Brookings Institute is right there with Furman. It called low consumer sentiment a paradox.<\/p>\n

I gave a helping hand to the Brookings Institute.<\/p>\n

Dear Brookings, Here\u2019s Your Paradox<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The Immigrant Crime Spree is Real, Not Imaginary<\/p>\n

Negative 818,000 job revisions<\/p>\n

Job openings crash<\/p>\n

Full Time Employment: -1,000,600 from a year ago<\/p>\n

Total employment: only +216,000 from a year ago<\/p>\n

Excluding government, year-over-year employment is negative for the last 9 consecutive months<\/p>\n

Non-agricultural employment excluding government peaked in August of 2023 at 138.026 million and is now 137.240 million, down 786,000 since the peak.<\/p>\n

The unemployment rate is up 0.7 percent from the low at a pace that strongly suggests recession.<\/p>\n

Home prices are up 49 percent in less than five years to new record highs.<\/p>\n

A $150,000 house in 1988 now costs $707,500.<\/p>\n

The mortgage rate is back above 7 percent.<\/p>\n

The share of first-time buyers of existing homes is at a record low.<\/p>\n

Even if you have a home, what about flood insurance, fire insurance, and car insurance.<\/p>\n

The Fed\u2019s Beige Book looks very recessionary<\/p>\n

The immigrant crime spree is real. The FBI lied about the crime rate dropping.<\/p>\n

Evictions are at record highs in many states and might be everywhere were it not for eviction moratoriums.<\/p>\n

Tens of millions of people want to buy a home but can\u2019t afford one and a different set of tens of millions of people are trapped in their homes but won\u2019t because of mortgage rates.<\/p>\n

A Bank of America survey shows over 40 percent of the nation is living paycheck to paycheck.<\/p>\n

Please consider\u00a0The Brookings Institute Wonders Why Consumer Sentiment is So Bad, I Can Help<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

In my post, I offer 10 charts and many links that I challenge Furman and The Brookings Institute to refute.<\/p>\n

Please click on the above link, and give it a crack. Tell me and my readers why GDP and warm fluffy thoughts would have mattered more than my allegedly cherrypicked data.<\/p>\n

Citing GDP, the stock market, CEO confidence, and even increased air travel (things the average Joe does not give a damn about), the Brookings Institute could not figure out why sentiment is in the gutter.<\/p>\n

I am pleased to report Jason Furman has figured this out.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s the Media!<\/strong><\/h2>\n

In academic wonderland, if we do not tell people they are losing money to inflation, then they wouldn\u2019t know.<\/em><\/p>\n

And then they would have voted for Harris. And that\u2019s why she lost.<\/p>\n

Silly Me<\/strong><\/h2>\n

I thought that 40% of the nation living paycheck-to-paycheck mattered. I thought negative year-over-year employment for the last nine months, except for government, mattered.<\/p>\n

I thought that millions of people trapped in their homes unable to move, somehow mattered. And I thought millions of other people unable to buy a home (but let\u2019s not call that inflation) mattered.<\/p>\n

For more of my thoughts, please see\u00a0Why Trump Won the Election in One Clear Picture<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Please check it out and tell me where I went wrong.<\/p>\n

Bottom line, Furman nailed it.<\/p>\n

Harris lost because of the media. If only we would have told people they were better off than they were, people would have believed it.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nFri, 11\/08\/2024 – 18:25<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bhttps:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/personal-finance\/harvard-prof-says-people-are-better-they-think-blames-media-harris-loss<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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