{"id":1502166,"date":"2024-11-13T22:20:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-14T03:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1502166"},"modified":"2024-11-13T22:20:00","modified_gmt":"2024-11-14T03:20:00","slug":"natgas-prices-near-breakout-level-ahead-of-cold-blob-invasion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/natgas-prices-near-breakout-level-ahead-of-cold-blob-invasion\/1502166\/","title":{"rendered":"NatGas Prices Near Breakout Level Ahead Of Cold Blob Invasion"},"content":{"rendered":"

NatGas Prices Near Breakout Level Ahead Of Cold Blob Invasion<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

US natural gas futures are up 2.5% in late afternoon trading, reaching $2.98 per mmBtu, driven by new forecasts showing a shift in cold weather from the\u00a0West Coast to the East next week. This suggests households may crank up their\u00a0thermostats for the first time this season as a proper chill sets in.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Private weather forecaster BAMWX published a new\u00a0mid-day GEFS run for late November that shows “massive cold trends” for the eastern half of the US.\u00a0<\/p>\n

“The pattern supports the cold stretch and we have a better tap to cold air ahead,”\u00a0BAMWX wrote on X, adding, “Could get pretty interesting for a time late month for wintry potential.”\u00a0<\/p>\n

Massive colder trends on the mid-day GEFS run for late November. The pattern supports the cold stretch and we have a better tap to cold air ahead.<\/p>\n

Could get pretty interesting for a time late month for wintry potential. #Energy<\/a> #NatGas<\/a> #OOTT<\/a> $ng<\/a> $ung<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/UpJ5pT44t8<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 BAM Weather (BAMWX) (@bamwxcom) November 13, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n

Meteorologist\u00a0Ryan Kane wrote on X, “It’s safe to say next weeks ULL will be the big pattern changing system (Nov 20-23rd). Nice -EPO, +PNA & -NAO will all work to drive cold into the eastern half of CONUS.”<\/p>\n

“Snow potential should come Thanksgiving week as the -NAO attempts to break down as the cold air is established,”\u00a0Kane noted.\u00a0<\/p>\n

It’s safe to say next weeks ULL will be the big pattern changing system (Nov 20-23rd). Nice -EPO, +PNA & -NAO will all work to drive cold into the eastern half of CONUS. Snow potential should come thanksgiving week as the -NAO attempts to break down as the cold air is established pic.twitter.com\/thWrHJDSZZ<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Ryan Kane (@ryankanerWX) November 13, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n

BAMWX said the pattern shift to much cooler temps in the interior Northeast could produce ripe conditions for snow next week.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u2744SNOW CHANCES ARRIVING AROUND THANKSGIVING?<\/p>\n

For several days now, we’ve been mentioning the pattern changing with cooler temperatures arriving for the end of November\/start of December.<\/p>\n

With the cooler temperatures, comes the possibility of winter precipitation\ud83d\udc40<\/p>\n

Now… snow\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/ZPQEy24iqB<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Kirk \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 Hinz | BAM \u26a1\ufe0fWeather (@Met_khinz) November 12, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n

Here’s what other meteorologists are saying…<\/p>\n

Euro Ens (upgraded) showing a strong signal for wintery mischief here in the Mid Atlantic going into Thanksgiving week. \ud83d\udc47 It even has a little snow in the Baltimore Metro. Take that with a grain of rock salt, but all of the long-range modeling is seeing the cold air. Stay tuned pic.twitter.com\/pwvsoKiJs7<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Tony Pann (@TonyPannWBAL) November 13, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n

eye candy euro control with Thanksgiving week snowstorm in interior east pic.twitter.com\/VYm3V0Vn6Q<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 The American Storm (@BigJoeBastardi) November 8, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n

Back to NatGas fundamentals, here’s the latest data (courtesy of Bloomberg):<\/p>\n

Weather:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Forecasts shifted cooler for parts of the West Coast with colder temperatures moving eastward later in the Nov. 18-22 period: Maxar<\/em><\/p>\n

See WHUT for a map of latest 6-10 day weather forecast: NOAA * Click here for two-week temperature forecasts for the US<\/em><\/p>\n

Storage:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Gas inventories probably rose 39 bcf last week, based on median of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n

Five-year average gas inventory change for week ended Nov. 8 is +29 bcf<\/em><\/p>\n

Stockpiles totaled 3.932 tcf as of Nov. 1, 5.8% above the five-year average <\/em><\/p>\n

EIA to report weekly storage data at 10:30am New York time on Thursday<\/em><\/p>\n

Daily BNEF Gas Data:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Lower-48 dry gas production on Wednesday ~100.4 bcf\/day, or -5.2% y\/y<\/em><\/p>\n

Lower-48 total gas demand ~81.7 bcf\/day, or -3.1% y\/y<\/em><\/p>\n

Dry gas exports to Mexico ~6.5 bcf\/day, or -2% w\/w<\/em><\/p>\n

Estimated gas flows to LNG export terminals ~13.7 bcf\/day, or +1.5% w\/w<\/em><\/p>\n

Maybe a cold blast in the Northeast and other parts of the US will be the catalyst to push NatGas futures past the $3 mark, which has served as strong resistance for nearly two years.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

In mid-August, the\u00a0208th edition of the Farmers’ Almanac\u00a0published the\u00a0“Wet Winter Whirlwind<\/a>.”\u00a0<\/em>It noted, “<\/em>There will be a lot of precipitation and storms”\u2014all dependent on location.”\u00a0<\/p>\n

And this:\u00a0NatGas Bulls Rejoice: Colder Winter Lower 48 Forecasts May “Place Upward Pressure” On Prices<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nWed, 11\/13\/2024 – 17:20<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bhttps:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/commodities\/natgas-prices-near-breakout-level-ahead-cold-blob-invasion<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

NatGas Prices Near Breakout Level Ahead Of Cold Blob Invasion US natural gas futures are up 2.5% in late afternoon trading, reaching $2.98 per mmBtu,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":1502167,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1502166","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1502166","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1502166"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1502166\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1502167"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1502166"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1502166"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1502166"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}