{"id":1504672,"date":"2024-11-27T04:25:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-27T09:25:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1504672"},"modified":"2024-11-27T04:25:00","modified_gmt":"2024-11-27T09:25:00","slug":"the-triggers-for-consequences-of-russias-possible-missile-deployment-to-the-asia-pacific","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/the-triggers-for-consequences-of-russias-possible-missile-deployment-to-the-asia-pacific\/1504672\/","title":{"rendered":"The Triggers For & Consequences Of Russia’s Possible Missile Deployment To The Asia-Pacific"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Triggers For & Consequences Of Russia’s Possible Missile Deployment To The Asia-Pacific<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov\u00a0said<\/a>\u00a0in response to a question about his country\u2019s possible missile deployment to the Asia-Pacific that this \u201cwill depend on the deployment of corresponding US systems in any region of the world.\u201d <\/strong>This came less than a week after Putin authorized the use of Russia\u2019s previously secret hypersonic medium-range Oreshnik missile in Ukraine, the strategic significance of which was analyzed\u00a0here<\/a>, and parallels newly deteriorating Russian-South Korean ties.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Seoul is\u00a0considering arming Ukraine<\/a>\u00a0in response to unsubstantiated reports about Russia\u2019s use of North Korean troops against that former Soviet Republic,<\/strong> which prompted Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko to\u00a0warn<\/a>\u00a0that \u201cwe will respond in every way that we find necessary. It is unlikely that this will strengthen the security of the Republic of Korea itself.\u201d<\/p>\n

The two triggers for Russia\u2019s possible missile deployment to the Asia-Pacific are therefore the US doing so first or Seoul arming Kiev.<\/strong><\/p>\n

It’s important to point out that while China is Russia\u2019s close military partner and Moscow believes that Washington is engaged in what Russian officials describe as a \u201cdual containment<\/a>\u201d strategy against both, Beijing isn\u2019t its military ally, unlike Pyongyang with which Moscow just recently signed a military pact. That document was analyzed\u00a0here<\/a>\u00a0and amounts to updating a Soviet-era one. Its strategic significance is that each pledged to help the other if they come under aggression and such assistance is requested.<\/p>\n

Accordingly, Russia\u2019s possible missile deployment to the Asia-Pacific would be in defense of its own and North Korea\u2019s security, with the first immediate consequence being that it could inadvertently worsen China\u2019s by serving to justify and accelerate the US\u2019 regional containment plans against it. To explain, Trump plans to \u201cPivot (back) to Asia\u201d upon the end of the Ukrainian Conflict, whenever that might be and\u00a0regardless of the terms<\/a>\u00a0agreed to, which is already troubling enough from China\u2019s perspective.<\/strong><\/p>\n

To make it even worse, Trump is inheriting the Biden Administration\u2019s achievement of having brokered the improvement of South Korean-Japanese ties to such an extent that the US\u2019 long-hoped-for regional trilateral is finally on the brink of becoming a strategic reality. The deployment of short- and intermediate-range Russian missiles to the Asia-Pacific, especially the state-of-the-art Oreshnik, would naturally justify the aforesaid and accelerate all three\u2019s convergence into a tighter triangle.<\/p>\n

On the diplomatic front, these missiles could always be withdrawn pending a grand deal between Russia, the US, North Korea, and possibly also China, though the latter\u2019s involvement shouldn\u2019t be taken for granted. After all, an agreement could be reached between the first three in exchange for de-escalating tensions in Northeast Asia, which could then free up the US and Japan to concentrate on more muscularly containing China in Southeast Asia via Taiwan and\u00a0the Philippines<\/a>, which both are close with.<\/p>\n

It’s premature to predict that this is exactly what will unfold, but the point is that Russia\u2019s role in the emerging Asian front of the\u00a0New Cold War<\/a>\u00a0could be leveraged for de-escalation purposes if its and North Korea\u2019s security interests are met, which only requires negotiating with the US and not with China.<\/strong> Given these military-strategic dynamics, it\u2019s possible that Trump might try to fulfill his campaign pledge to \u201cun-unite<\/a>\u201d Russia and China by playing them off against each other, though that\u2019s very unlikely to succeed.<\/p>\n

All told, Russia\u2019s possible missile deployment to the Asia-Pacific would be triggered by the US or South Korea, with the consequences being that it\u2019ll solidify Russia\u2019s role in that emerging front of the New Cold War while inadvertently worsening China\u2019s security by justifying and accelerating the US\u2019 \u201cPivot (back) to Asia\u201d. The Kremlin wants to fulfill its allied commitments to North Korea and highlight its relevance in that part of Eurasia, both goals of which are driven by security, diplomatic, and soft power motives.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nTue, 11\/26\/2024 – 23:25<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bhttps:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/geopolitical\/triggers-consequences-russias-possible-missile-deployment-asia-pacific<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Triggers For & Consequences Of Russia’s Possible Missile Deployment To The Asia-Pacific Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov\u00a0said\u00a0in…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":1504673,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1504672","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1504672","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1504672"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1504672\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1504673"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1504672"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1504672"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1504672"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}