{"id":1529376,"date":"2025-04-09T11:20:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-09T15:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1529376"},"modified":"2025-04-09T11:20:00","modified_gmt":"2025-04-09T15:20:00","slug":"the-medias-piss-stain-starts-to-dry","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/the-medias-piss-stain-starts-to-dry\/1529376\/","title":{"rendered":"The Media’s Piss Stain Starts To Dry"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Media’s Piss Stain Starts To Dry<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

Over the last few days, I\u2019ve been part of an extraordinarily small contingency of people\u00a0not<\/a><\/em>\u00a0freaking out and losing their minds<\/a>\u00a0over President Trump\u2019s new tariff plan or the ensuing stock market pullback.<\/p>\n

A couple of days ago, I\u00a0argued<\/a>\u00a0that the media shrieking hysterically about how the world was ending as a result of this trade policy was nothing more than a visceral reaction to what was happening in the stock market. It had to be. With just hours having passed since the implementation of Trump\u2019s tariff policy, there was no real way to judge its success based on the merits.<\/p>\n

Said another way, these things take time.<\/p>\n

In an\u00a0article late last week<\/a>, I criticized Wharton PhD Jeremy Siegel\u2014whose actual title is probably some bullshit with the word \u201cemeritus\u201d next to it\u2014for coming out and declaring Trump\u2019s tariff policy to be the worst policy decision in 95 years.<\/p>\n

My\u00a0argument<\/a>\u00a0wasn\u2019t that he was\u00a0wrong<\/em>\u2014only that it was\u00a0too soon\u00a0<\/em>to make such a declaration.<\/p>\n

Siegel was on CNBC again Monday this week. He started his interview by alluding to the idea that the Federal Reserve has room to cut interest rates\u2014similar to the way he\u00a0lobbied<\/a>\u00a0for an emergency rate cut back in August of last year. As the interview progressed, the stock market started to spike upwards on what we now know was a discredited headline about a 90-day pause in tariffs\u2014and on live television, within the course of the five-minute interview window, Siegel had changed his tone, backing off his rhetoric and calling the now-debunked headline \u201cterrific.\u201d<\/p>\n

“Holy sh*t! We’re all gonna die!”<\/a><\/p>\n

It was proof positive that everybody\u2014even supposedly well-adjusted, intellectual, seasoned economists\u2014reacts\u00a0first<\/em>\u00a0to the stock market and asks questions later.<\/p>\n

I\u00a0argued<\/a>\u00a0the same when the\u00a0Wall Street Journal<\/em>\u00a0editorial board came out just three days after the implementation of Trump\u2019s tariff policy and declared Xi Jinping as the \u201cemerging winner\u201d of this policy decision. Whether the policy works or not is one thing. But declaring winners after just three days just doesn\u2019t make sense to me.<\/p>\n

Today, we are witnessing the opposite: the market opened the day green, and the VIX is lower because\u2014even though we have uncertainty about the future of these trade deals\u2014at least the market knows that the giant shock of announcing the tariff to begin with has now passed. Everybody has been able to regain some semblance of footing, everybody knows where we stand now with other countries, and market direction going forward will be more of a prolonged response to how negotiations with other countries go.<\/p>\n

With China being the obvious main holdout, it appears as though negotiations with crucial countries\u2014like Japan, for instance\u2014are already moving forward.<\/p>\n

And so now that people in the financial media and \u201canalysts\u201d\u2014who appear to get their pulse on sentiment from reading nothing but social media\u2014are officially done pissing themselves, and the market has at least temporarily found some sort of point to bounce off of (even if it continues to eventually move lower again) their respective piss stains can start to dry, and we can move past the large shock of discomfort into the still uncomfortable, but less shocking, choppy waters of trade negotiation.<\/p>\n

President Trump was right during his interview a day or two ago when he told reporters that sometimes you have to \u201ctake the medicine.\u201d It is this outlook on big change being digested by markets that will help them find a bottom faster and get everybody on the same page of where we stand now\u2014without worrying whether or not our end of the negotiating table is going to capitulate or make terrible concessions, which could actually wind up being counterproductive.<\/p>\n

And whether or not you believe Trump\u2019s policy is working, you have to give him credit for having the spine to stand by it. I know we have very short memories, but the fever pitch of people\u2014media, citizens, friends, business leaders, analysts, and advisors even\u2014who must have been begging on Thursday and Friday of last week to reverse course had no effect on an unwavering President Trump.<\/p>\n

If you\u2019re going to \u201cthrow a grenade in the room and then walk away\u201d as a way of setting policy, you have to be 100% behind your decision\u2014and for better or for worse, there\u2019s no doubt Trump has dug in. As I said last summer<\/a>, I don\u2019t know\u00a0why\u00a0<\/em>Trump is fearless, or what drives it, but I think it\u2019s an asset.<\/p>\n

People on financial media this morning are bright-eyed and bushy-tailed, congratulating each other for having the fortitude to endure such tumultuous volatility. Markets are green! Flowers are blooming! The worst is over!<\/p>\n

And these are, of course,\u00a0also<\/em>\u00a0insane proclamations. There\u2019s still going to be a significant amount of volatility ahead, and to suggest that the market has bottomed here is,\u00a0in my opinion<\/a>, foolish. When the market is going up over long periods of time, it goes both down\u00a0and<\/em>\u00a0up over shorter periods of time. When the market goes down over long periods of time, it makes lower lows and lower highs, going both up\u00a0and<\/em>\u00a0down over shorter periods of time.<\/p>\n

Doing something like proclaiming the Fed should raise or lower rates based on what the stock market is doing in one session is an extraordinarily irresponsible and dangerous way to set policy. Essentially, the entire global economy\u2014representing $100 trillion in assets or more\u2014hangs in the balance of what the Federal Reserve decides to do with interest rates. To watch an \u201ceconomist\u201d on live television change their tune and cavalierly throw out interest rate cuts and hikes in different directions over the course of a five-minute interview is insane.<\/p>\n

But I guess that is only to be expected from financial media who can\u2019t help but make the story of the day whatever the market is doing that particular day. Real market veterans know: one day, one week, or one month of pattern does not make. And I\u2019ll give Jerome Powell credit: watching his\u00a0interview late last week<\/a>, I thought he spoke about the market\u2019s reaction and the Feds ensuing plans with a steady hand.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Going forward, if there\u2019s one thing to be adamant about, in my opinion, it\u2019s continuing to ignore reactionary responses to every individual headline that pops up about negotiations. To me, it harkens back to how people were watching and trading the number of COVID deaths as they occurred, minute by minute, in real time.<\/p>\n

Looking back now, it\u2019s easier to paint with much broader strokes: you should\u2019ve bought stocks on the crash in March 2020 and sold them recently when the Shiller price-to-earnings ratio nearly hit 40x. It wasn\u2019t so easy to discern that on a minute-by-minute basis in 2020, however.<\/p>\n

As the days, weeks and months pass by, order and trends will emerge from this tariff fiasco. This is why I don\u2019t bother arguing about the formula the Trump administration used to implement the tariffs, nor do I argue about specifics. The point of the policy was to recalibrate our standing in the world of trade and that\u2019s what it\u2019s doing. We\u2019ve made the message crystal clear, and we have postured accordingly. Already, nations are coming to the table to try and work through the problem. Trump himself said it right yesterday, proclaiming something to the effect of: \u201cIf this is done right, it will only have to be done once.\u201d<\/p>\n

As I\u2019ve been saying, regardless of how trade negotiations go, I still believe the stock market to be overvalued based on historical averages. But this doesn\u2019t mean that there aren\u2019t bargains out there in individual names and sectors. When undergoing such a massive macroeconomic shift, capital is going to move, valuations are going to change, and the market is going to look different on the other side of this policy negotiation than it did before.<\/p>\n

Taking a longer view, I think cooler heads are going to prevail, and by the end of summer, things will have calmed down significantly. So as for me, I\u2019m going to keep my cool head. The hysterical media was acting last week like it was a guarantee this trade war was going to last 100 years. It\u2019s been four or five days, and we\u2019ve already got people at the negotiating table.<\/p>\n

I\u2019ll look for value if the market moves lower\u00a0or<\/em>\u00a0higher from here. As I said before the tariff war even began, I believe the market could still fall 30 or 40% from here easily\u2014towards the historical P\/E average near around 16x earnings. And once the deals start getting consummated,\u00a0then<\/em>\u00a0I will start to judge the effectiveness of the negotiating tactic that the President is employing.<\/p>\n

I judge effectiveness by how and when these new policies will be implemented and whether or not they are a net positive for the country after the fact. So for me, the answers are still yet to come. But for the lot of individuals who use the stock market as their mood ring for the day, at least they have a day today to let that piss stain from last week dry up a little bit.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

QTR\u2019s Disclaimer<\/strong><\/em>:<\/strong>\u00a0Please read my full legal disclaimer\u00a0on my About page here<\/a><\/em>.\u00a0This post represents my opinions only.<\/em>\u00a0In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a\u00a0Creative Commons license<\/a>\u00a0with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.<\/em><\/p>\n

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade\/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I\u2019m bullish without owning things, sometimes I\u2019m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I\u2019m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won\u2019t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can\u2019t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I\u2019m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it\u2019s that important.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nWed, 04\/09\/2025 – 07:20<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bhttps:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/markets\/medias-piss-stain-starts-dry<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Media’s Piss Stain Starts To Dry Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance Over the last few days, I\u2019ve been part of an extraordinarily small contingency…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":1529377,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1529376","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/pbimBl-6pRm","jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/04\/Screenshot202025-04-0820at202.28.22E280AFPM-COVL46.jpeg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1529376","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1529376"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1529376\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1529377"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1529376"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1529376"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1529376"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}