{"id":1536180,"date":"2025-05-15T12:41:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-15T16:41:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1536180"},"modified":"2025-05-15T12:41:00","modified_gmt":"2025-05-15T16:41:00","slug":"us-retail-sales-surprises-to-the-upside-but","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/us-retail-sales-surprises-to-the-upside-but\/1536180\/","title":{"rendered":"US Retail Sales Surprises To The Upside, But&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span class=\"field field--name-title field--type-string field--label-hidden\">US Retail Sales Surprises To The Upside, But&#8230;<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"clearfix text-formatted field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field__item\">\n<p>If BofA&#8217;s omniscient analysts are right (and they have been serially on the correct side of this data series relative to consensus for months), then traders should brace for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/economics\/brace-retail-sales-miss\">disappointment this morning for the retail sales data<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cms.zerohedge.com\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/weak%20retail%20sales%20drop.jpg?itok=OAEks3aj\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p>But&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>For once, the BofA analysts were incorrect as headline retail sales rose 0.1% MoM (better than the 0.0% MoM exp, but this follows a sizable upward revision in March to +1.7% MoM (from +1.4%). With the revision that left retail sales up 5.2% YoY &#8211; near its highest since Dec 2023<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cms.zerohedge.com\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/scxacsacs.jpg?itok=WuOv4c-8\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Source: Bloomberg<\/p>\n<p>Under the hood, Sporting Goods sales declined the most while Building Materials rose the most&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cms.zerohedge.com\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/image_61.png?itok=KvQ4Cxw_\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>The (tariff front running) surge in Motor Vehicle Sales last month has gone&#8230;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cms.zerohedge.com\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/2025-05-15_05-46-31.jpg?itok=CWEv-lb1\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Source: Bloomberg<\/p>\n<p>As a reminder, this data is nominal, so adjusting ()very roughly) for inflation, retail sales rose 2.8% YoY, equalling its highest since Feb 2022&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cms.zerohedge.com\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/bfm2E1C.jpg?itok=Y1DbTF9z\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Source: Bloomberg<\/p>\n<p>More problematically, the Control Group &#8211; which feeds directly into GDP &#8211; was a big miss, dropping 0.2% MoM (vs expectations of a 0.3% MoM rise)&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cms.zerohedge.com\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/bfmFC18_0.jpg?itok=q-6tkyms\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Source: Bloomberg<\/p>\n<p>So, the good news is bottom-up Americans are spending&#8230; but top-down GDP may be negatively affected.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>      <span class=\"field field--name-uid field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden\"><a title=\"View user profile.\" href=\"https:\/\/cms.zerohedge.com\/users\/tyler-durden\" class=\"username\">Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span><br \/>\n<span class=\"field field--name-created field--type-created field--label-hidden\">Thu, 05\/15\/2025 &#8211; 08:41<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u200b<a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/economics\/us-retail-sales-surprises-upside\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/economics\/us-retail-sales-surprises-upside<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>US Retail Sales Surprises To The Upside, But&#8230; If BofA&#8217;s omniscient analysts are right (and they have been serially on the correct side of this&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":1536181,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1536180","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/pbimBl-6rD6","jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/05\/weak20retail20sales20drop-ftlxcn.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1536180","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1536180"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1536180\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1536181"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1536180"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1536180"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1536180"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}