{"id":1536212,"date":"2025-05-15T13:20:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-15T17:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1536212"},"modified":"2025-05-15T13:20:00","modified_gmt":"2025-05-15T17:20:00","slug":"trump-has-made-the-impossible-possible-kremlin-praises-istanbul-2-0-talks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/trump-has-made-the-impossible-possible-kremlin-praises-istanbul-2-0-talks\/1536212\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump Has ‘Made The Impossible Possible’: Kremlin Praises Istanbul 2.0 Talks"},"content":{"rendered":"

Trump Has ‘Made The Impossible Possible’: Kremlin Praises Istanbul 2.0 Talks<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s investment envoy and close aide, Kirill Dmitriev, has praised US President Donald Trump for putting together Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul, the first such direct dialogue between the warring countries since early 2022.<\/p>\n

Trump and his team have “made the impossible possible”\u00a0<\/strong>by bringing Moscow and Kiev to the table.\u00a0Dmitriev further wrote on X<\/a> that the Istanbul meeting is happening “against all odds\/fierce resistance”<\/strong> and that\u00a0if “not derailed last-minute, this could be a historic step to peace.”<\/p>\n

Dmitriev also specifically named Vice President J.D. Vance, Trump\u2019s special envoy Steve Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio – the latter two who are present in Istanbul – as major contributors to the mediation effort<\/strong>. The Kremlin had spent the opening years of the conflict blasting the Biden administration for constantly stoking the war and thwarting dialogue, taking Washington-Moscow relations to new historic lows.<\/p>\n

Via Anadolu Agency<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

As we noted earlier<\/a>, Ukraine’s President Zelensky is actually in Turkey<\/strong>, where he’s set to meet with President Erdogan – but separately in the capital of Ankara<\/strong>, and has boasted that “I am here” and that Putin is not. Zelensky has even called the Russian delegation, largely composed of junior officials, “phony”<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

President Trump meanwhile, while attending meetings in Qatar, was asked by a reporter why the American leader is not himself present in Turkey for the talks:<\/p>\n

“Why would he go if I\u2019m not going?”<\/em><\/p>\n

“I wasn\u2019t planning to go and I didn\u2019t think he would if I didn\u2019t.”<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

“But we have people there. Marco’s doing a fantastic job, Marco’s there…”<\/em><\/p>\n

It remains that Putin has little reason or incentive to go, with war analysts widely recognizing that he remains in the driver’s seat militarily, and with Ukrainian forces against the ropes.<\/p>\n

\u2018Why would he go if I\u2019m not going?\u2019: Trump reacts to Putin sitting out Istanbul talks<\/p>\n

\u201cI wasn\u2019t planning to go and I didn\u2019t think he would if I didn\u2019t.\u201d pic.twitter.com\/4YvqvO8gWh<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Chay Bowes (@BowesChay) May 15, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n

Zelensky has until now offered no major concessions<\/strong>, and issues like permanent control over Crimea and the four eastern territories remain sticking points for Moscow. Thus there are unlikely to be any major breakthroughs in Istanbul, but the fact that the two sides are even at the table is a big accomplishment<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Below is an important rundown of what’s expected in Istanbul and what’s at stake for both sides, excerpted from fresh Responsible Statecraft analysis,\u00a0Istanbul 2.0: know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em<\/a>:<\/em><\/p>\n

* * *<\/em><\/p>\n

What has changed since then?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ukraine will enter the Istanbul talks in a weaker position that it held in 2022.<\/p>\n

Western support for Ukraine financially and economically is not as sound as it was then. No big ticket economic aid and assistance has been made available since the G7 agreement of a $50 billion package of loans, in June 2024. While European states scratched together\u00a0new economic aid<\/a>\u00a0to Ukraine in April, this cannot make up for the reduction in US support.<\/p>\n

In territorial terms, Russia withdrew from Kyiv as a concession to the first Istanbul talks and lost ground in Kharkiv and in Kherson in late 2022. However, Russia has gone on steadily to gain further territory in the Donbas since the end of 2023. So while both sides have scores on the board, Russia now maintains the military upper hand on the battlefield and that seems unlikely to change. These two factors in particular were behind President Trump\u2019s February assertion that Ukraine has\u00a0no cards to play<\/a>.<\/p>\n

What has stayed the same?<\/strong><\/p>\n

NATO membership is still off the table<\/p>\n

The verified documents shared by the New York Times last June confirmed that Ukraine\u2019s neutrality and non-membership of NATO was the central issue agreed upon in 2022. Ukraine was ready to become a \u201cpermanently neutral state\u201d that would never join NATO or allow foreign forces to be based on its soil.<\/p>\n

There seems no route for Ukraine to resile from that given its currently weakened negotiating position and President Trump\u2019s stated view that NATO membership for Ukraine is\u00a0not practical.<\/a>\u00a0Although Germany\u2019s new foreign Minister,\u00a0Johann Wadephul<\/a>\u00a0recently repeated the line that Ukraine\u2019s path to NATO is irreversible, most have agreed, privately and publicly, that Ukraine\u2019s path to NATO is a fraught if not impossible one.<\/p>\n

Right now, just having the talks is a huge breakthrough<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Istanbul talks would not be happening had the\u00a0Trump administration<\/a>\u00a0not pushed for it so hard. We don\u2019t need to rehash the \u201cdid they or didn\u2019t they\u201d debate around why Ukraine abandoned the Istanbul agreement in April 2022. What is clear, is that Ukraine became entrenched, not only in not negotiating with Russia, but in excluding Russia from all discussions on peace in Ukraine from then onward.<\/p>\n

Having agreed in principle for Ukraine to accept neutral status Zelensky was pushing his own\u00a0ten point peace plan<\/a>. This included, among other things, Russia withdrawing its troops to the pre-2014 border, i.e. giving up Crimea and the Donbass and creating a Euro-Atlantic Security Architecture, by which he meant Ukraine joining NATO. Peace summits were organized in various countries that explicitly excluded Russia, culminating in the Switzerland event on June 15, 2024.<\/p>\n

At this event, President Zelensky was dug in deeper on resisting any engagement with Russia until a full withdrawal of its troops from Ukraine, which was a completely unrealistic proposal. \u201cRussia can start negotiations with us even tomorrow without waiting for anything \u2013 if they\u00a0leave our legal territories<\/a>,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Even after President Trump was elected,\u00a0European leaders<\/a>\u00a0clung to the line that \u201conly Ukraine can decide what peace means.\u201d\u2019 I see no circumstances in which a Kamala Harris presidency would have cajoled President Zelensky to enter into negotiations. Tomorrow\u2019s talks wouldn\u2019t be happening unless the Trump administration broke a whole load of Ukrainian and European eggshells to get to this point.<\/p>\n

Source: Anadolu Agency\u00a0<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

And\u00a0Responsible Statecraft <\/em>continues:<\/p>\n

The biggest issue now is territory<\/strong><\/p>\n

Even though he was wrongly derided at the time by mainstream\u00a0media<\/a>,\u00a0Steve Witkoff<\/a>\u00a0correctly pointed out in his March interview with Tucker Carlson that the territorial issues in Ukraine will be most intractable. Russia\u2019s decision in October 2022 to formally annex the four oblasts of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk changed the calculus. However, Russia does not have full territorial control of any of those oblasts, which are cut through the middle by a hotly contested front line.<\/p>\n

Resolving the line of control when the war ends is, by some margin, the most problematic challenge. This will be a hugely sensitive topic, and European allies will shoot down any major concessions to Russia, as they did when the idea surfaced that the U.S.might\u00a0de jure<\/em>\u00a0recognise Russia\u2019s occupation of\u00a0Crimea<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The most obvious settlement is a de facto recognition of occupation, a Cyprus-style scenario, that does not stand in the way of Ukraine\u2019s future membership of the European Union. Even that will require detailed agreement on issues around demilitarization of the line of control and enforcing any ceasefire.<\/p>\n

Sanctions are probably tricky, but also tractable<\/strong><\/p>\n

As\u00a0I have said before<\/a>, there is enormous scope to a plan that allows for the immediate lifting of the bulk of zero-impact measures, phasing out the remainder at points agreed to by both sides. The toughest issue remains the $300 billion in frozen Russian assets, mostly held in Belgium. Russia has shown a\u00a0willingness to concede<\/a>\u00a0this funding to support reconstruction in Ukraine, including those parts that Russia occupies.<\/p>\n

But there is texture here. Freeing up those funds for reconstruction would immediately remove the source of interest payments that are meeting Ukraine\u2019s obligations on its $50 billion in\u00a0debt to the G7<\/a>, agreed to in June 2024. But the more general policy question arises, how much of the freed up funding would be spent in Ukraine itself and how much in Russian-occupied Ukraine, where most of the war damage has occurred? The U.S. must keep the pressure on to ensure the talks stay on track.<\/p>\n

A U.S. presence in Istanbul will be vital, to prevent, in particular, Ukraine from bailing on the talks. That\u2019s why sending\u00a0Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg<\/a>\u00a0makes sense. The former is trusted by the Russian side while the latter has built relationships in Ukraine. Their presence serves to keep the process moving forward until a deal can be pushed over the line and the fighting can stop.<\/p>\n

Bear in mind that the 2022 talks ran for a month and a half and the circumstances have materially changed as I have indicated above. While there has been speculation that\u00a0President Trump<\/a>\u00a0might drop into Istanbul, I am not sure that this is necessary if President Putin doesn\u2019t himself attend. Knowing the Russians, I assess that Putin will want his own \u201c\u2018meeting moment\u201d with the U.S. President on terms that the Russian side can better choreograph. Indeed, that may be a prize for Russia\u2019s engagement in the process, given its desire for a more comprehensive reset of relations with the U.S.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nThu, 05\/15\/2025 – 09:20<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bhttps:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/geopolitical\/trump-has-made-impossible-possible-kremlin-praises-istanbul-20-talks<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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