{"id":1537977,"date":"2025-05-25T12:10:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-25T16:10:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1537977"},"modified":"2025-05-25T12:10:00","modified_gmt":"2025-05-25T16:10:00","slug":"is-balkanization-back-in-the-cards-for-syria","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/is-balkanization-back-in-the-cards-for-syria\/1537977\/","title":{"rendered":"Is “Balkanization” Back In The Cards For Syria?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Is “Balkanization” Back In The Cards For Syria?<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

The situation remains very combustible and could easily explode at the slightest spark…<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Russia and the US rarely agree on much, but their top diplomats just sounded the alarm about Syria, which should convince objective observers that there\u2019s credence to their warnings. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov\u00a0said<\/a>\u00a0that \u201cThe situation in the Middle East is particularly troubling, especially in Syria, where groups of radical militants commit real acts of ethnic cleansing and mass executions on ethnic and religious grounds.\u201d <\/em><\/p>\n

This was a reference to March\u2019s\u00a0Kristallnacht-like killings<\/a>\u00a0of\u00a0Syria\u2019s Alawite minority<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

As for Secretary of State Marco Rubio, he\u00a0said<\/a>\u00a0that \u201cIt is our assessment that, frankly, the transitional authority, given the challenges they\u2019re facing, are maybe weeks \u2014 not many months \u2014 away from potential collapse and a full-scale civil war of epic proportions, basically the country splitting up.\u201d<\/em><\/strong> He was likely alluding not only to the mass killings of Syria\u2019s Alawites, but\u00a0recent tensions<\/a>\u00a0with the Druze minority and potential problems in implementing spring\u2019s\u00a0national reintegration deal<\/a>\u00a0with the Kurds.<\/p>\n

Prior to these top diplomats\u2019 warnings, there was some cautious optimism about Syria\u2019s future after Russia was\u00a0able to retain<\/a>\u00a0its bases there for the time being, Trump\u00a0met<\/a>\u00a0Jolani\/Sharaa, and the US and then the EU\u00a0lifted sanctions<\/a>\u00a0on Syria. Nevertheless, the aforesaid three positive developments were still overshadowed by the abovementioned problems, which pair with the\u00a0Israeli-Turkish rivalry<\/a>\u00a0in Syria to create a very combustible situation.<\/p>\n

To make matters worse, Russia\u2019s Khmeimim airbase was\u00a0recently attacked<\/a>\u00a0by what Russian milblog\u00a0Rybar<\/a>\u00a0claimed were Uzbek militants<\/strong>, who might have gone rogue for whatever reason but Rybar suspects that they actually intended to send a plausibly deniable hostile message from the new authorities.<\/p>\n

Whatever their true motivation might be, it shows how volatile the situation remains in Syria, which could prompt all relevant foreign stakeholders into seriously considering their contingency plans there.<\/p>\n

These are Russia, the US, Turkiye, Israel, and even the Iranian-led \u201cResistance Axis<\/a>\u201d to a degree, and the interplay between them could decisively shape Syria\u2019s future.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Apart from the previously described Israeli-Turkish rivalry, Israel was\u00a0reportedly lobbying<\/a>\u00a0the US to keep Russia\u2019s bases in Syria earlier this year, while another report claimed that Israel is engaged in\u00a0secret Emirati-mediated talks<\/a>\u00a0with Syria. There are also recent reports about the Trump-Bibi rift, which\u00a0might be irreconcilable<\/a>, to consider too.<\/p>\n

Another influential variable could be the\u00a0nascent<\/a>\u00a0Russian<\/a>–US<\/a>\u00a0\u201cNew<\/a>\u00a0D\u00e9tente<\/a>\u201d, which might see them coordinate their activities in Syria, just like Turkiye and the US might do the same after Trump\u00a0congratulated<\/a>\u00a0Erdogan for last December\u2019s regime change. Observers also shouldn\u2019t rule out that the \u201cResistance Axis\u201d might have some \u201csleeper cells\u201d across Syria waiting for the right time to \u201cawake\u201d. The chaotic interplay between these relevant foreign stakeholders could easily \u201cBalkanize\u201d Syria.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Syria might therefore be in for some tough times ahead due to these factors.\u00a0<\/p>\n

To recap, the new authorities\u2019 persecution of minorities might push some of them into taking up arms, after which they could be patronized by the identified foreign stakeholders.<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n

Some of these external players might then exploit these partners as proxies for dividing-and-ruling Syria.\u00a0<\/p>\n

If another full-scale war ensues, then the region will once again be destabilized, and another tidal wave of refugees might crash into Europe.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nSun, 05\/25\/2025 – 08:10<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bhttps:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/geopolitical\/balkanization-back-cards-syria<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Is “Balkanization” Back In The Cards For Syria? Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack, The situation remains very combustible and could easily explode at the…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":1537978,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1537977","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1537977","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1537977"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1537977\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1537978"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1537977"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1537977"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1537977"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}