{"id":1539614,"date":"2025-06-03T14:45:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-03T18:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1539614"},"modified":"2025-06-03T14:45:00","modified_gmt":"2025-06-03T18:45:00","slug":"the-russian-ukrainian-talks-are-at-an-impasse-that-only-the-us-or-brute-force-can-break","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/the-russian-ukrainian-talks-are-at-an-impasse-that-only-the-us-or-brute-force-can-break\/1539614\/","title":{"rendered":"The Russian-Ukrainian Talks Are At An Impasse That Only The US Or Brute Force Can Break"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Russian-Ukrainian Talks Are At An Impasse That Only The US Or Brute Force Can Break<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

The second round of the newly resumed Russian-Ukrainian talks in Istanbul on Monday resulted in no progress being made towards peace. <\/strong><\/p>\n

Both sides simply exchanged their\u00a0respective<\/a>\u00a0memoranda<\/a>\u00a0about their predictably envisaged zero-sum military-political endgames and agreed to\u00a0yet another prisoner swap<\/a>.<\/p>\n

That outcome was expected since the US hasn\u2019t yet coerced either or both sides into concessions. Therefore, unless the US steps up and is successful, only brute force can break this impasse.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Regarding the possible solution of American intervention, it would take different forms with Ukraine and\/or Russia if it ever comes to pass.<\/p>\n

With respect to the first, the US would have to credibly threaten to completely cut Ukraine off from military, intelligence, and economic aid if it doesn\u2019t comply with some of Russia\u2019s demanded concessions for peace and then go through with it if Zelensky refuses. <\/strong><\/p>\n

Even though the Europeans\u00a0likely won\u2019t follow suit<\/a>, they couldn\u2019t replace the US\u2019 then-lost role in helping Ukraine.<\/p>\n

As for the form that it would take with Russia, the US would have to impose and then enforce crippling secondary sanctions against all of Russia\u2019s energy clients without exception, with an emphasis on China, India, the EU, and Turkiye. Together with the aforesaid or in lieu of it due to the painful blowback that such sanctions could entail, the US might also \u201cescalate to de-escalate\u201d by ramping up military, intelligence, and economic aid to Ukraine, though at the risk of war by miscalculation with Russia.<\/p>\n

Regarding the possible solution of brute force, this too would take different forms from Ukraine and\/or Russia if it also ever comes to pass. <\/strong>With respect to the first, Ukraine would have to carry out enough strategic drone strikes against Russia to force Putin into capitulating to Zelensky\u2019s maximalist demands, but without provoking a devastating retaliation\u00a0with Oreshniks<\/a>\u00a0(possibly tipped with tactical nukes). That goal is unrealistic, however, while the means are extremely risky. Even so, Ukraine might still attempt it.<\/p>\n

As for the form that it could take from Russia, Putin would have to authorize the aforesaid retaliation to\u00a0force Zelensky into capitulating<\/a>\u00a0to his own maximalist demands, but without provoking Trump into \u201cescalating to de-escalate\u201d in response out of fear of losing all of the US\u2019 investments in \u201cProject Ukraine\u201d. Russia would also have to be ready to respond to any desperate European provocations in that event, such as the\u00a0formal deployment of troops to Ukraine<\/a>, while still keeping the US out of the fray.<\/p>\n

The third possible solution that some might have thought of, namely continuing the ground campaign in the absence of US coercion on either party and neither \u201cescalating to de-escalate\u201d in their own way, would inevitably lead back to this scenario branch with time<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

After all, Trump would be compelled to either cut Ukraine off or \u201cescalate to de-escalate\u201d if the front lines collapse, in which respective case Ukraine or Russia might then \u201cescalate to de-escalate\u201d. Some escalation might therefore be inevitable.<\/p>\n

Considering these strategic dynamics, the most realistic best-case scenario for Russia would thus be that the US\u00a0seriously tries coercing Ukraine into concessions<\/a>, Russia doesn\u2019t devastatingly retaliate to any subsequently desperate Ukrainian provocations, and then Ukraine capitulates shortly thereafter once the US cuts it off.<\/strong> Regrettably, Trump\u2019s\u00a0latest<\/a>\u00a0rhetoric<\/a>\u00a0against Putin and his ally Lindsey Graham\u2019s\u00a0draft sanctions legislation<\/a>\u00a0suggest that he isn\u2019t preparing to do this, so the worst-case scenario might unfold.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nTue, 06\/03\/2025 – 10:45<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bhttps:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/geopolitical\/russian-ukrainian-talks-are-impasse-only-us-or-brute-force-can-break<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Russian-Ukrainian Talks Are At An Impasse That Only The US Or Brute Force Can Break Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack, The second round…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":1539615,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1539614","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1539614","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1539614"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1539614\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1539615"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1539614"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1539614"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1539614"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}