{"id":1542415,"date":"2025-06-18T14:50:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-18T18:50:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1542415"},"modified":"2025-06-18T14:50:00","modified_gmt":"2025-06-18T18:50:00","slug":"unconditional-surrender","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/unconditional-surrender\/1542415\/","title":{"rendered":"“Unconditional Surrender!”"},"content":{"rendered":"

“Unconditional Surrender!”<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

By Michael Every of Rabobank<\/em><\/p>\n

So, no, President Trump didn\u2019t leave the G7 to discuss a Middle-East ceasefire. From the Situation Room, he instead declared: \u201cwe\u201d now have total control over Iranian airspace; \u201cwe\u201d know where Supreme Leader Khamenei is bunkering down but are not going to kill him (yet); and that Iran must offer its \u201cUNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!\u201d<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

So, is the US going to enter the war despite the risk of possible attacks on its bases? Anonymous claim a false flag attack on US soil perpetrated by what\u2019s clearly implied as Israel looms to drag it into the war: but isn\u2019t the war part obvious(?) <\/strong>Khamanei tweeted from his bunker –presumably not on a new gold Trump phone– \u201cThe Battle begins\u201d, referring to Khaybar, Shia Islam\u2019s conquest of a Saudi Jewish town in 628CE. The unofficial Shah of Iran, abroad, called for an uprising with unsubstantiated claims some of Iran\u2019s military may defect to him, as parts of Tehran were evacuated, Israel hit more military facilities, and some ATM machines stopped functioning<\/strong>. Regime change really can\u2019t be ruled out, it seems: but what then? And who will have control of the nuclear material scattered round the country?<\/strong><\/p>\n

France\u2019s Macron is warning that a violent Iran regime change would trigger \u2018chaos\u2019; so would leaving a violent Iran regime in place with a nuclear programme; and so is trying to remove that programme with violence<\/strong>. It\u2019s easy to be a purist and say \u2018Non<\/em>\u2019 to things which one isn\u2019t capable of doing about threats one chooses not to see. It\u2019s not so easy to say, \u2018Oui, *quelque chose* doit \u00eatre fait<\/em>\u2019 (Yes, *something* must be done.) But what and how?<\/p>\n

It’s all desperately confusing and extremely worrying. Indeed, it can feel like we are watching \u2018Top Gun: Maverick\u2019 and<\/em> \u2018Hot Shots\u2019 on twin screens, and \u2018V for Vendetta\u2019 and<\/em> \u2018The Dictator\u2019, while humming The Scorpions\u2019 \u2018Wind of Change<\/strong>\u2019. As such, some in markets are unconditionally surrendering to the appeal of ignoring this as much as possible; or of \u2018maverick\u2019 geopolitical Top Hot Takes that the USA V Iran will see asset prices heat up even further once the Big Gun enters the arena. Both are possible in the short term but overlook that this isn\u2019t a regional but a global issue.<\/p>\n

As Bloomberg puts it, \u2018Russia Fears for Ally Iran With Few Tools to Influence Crisis\u2019, with memes of Khamenei sitting sadly in a Moscow flat with former Syrian President Assad flowing. Russia loves the thought of higher oil prices and hates the idea of losing an ally in Iran. Even with its resources tied up with Ukraine, agreeing to allow the regime to flee to Moscow would have to be part of a larger geopolitical deal. And if you don\u2019t know what that might mean, it might mean you\u2019re part of it.<\/p>\n

In geoeconomics, the Wall Street Journal says, \u2018If Iran\u2019s Oil Is Cut Off, China Will Pay the Price<\/strong><\/em>\u2019 as \u201cChinese refineries have become hooked on cheap imports of sanctioned Iranian crude.\u201d China also may want to have a say: what\u2019s in it for them if Iran sees regime change and the Middle East, and its oil, ends up as a US satrapy?<\/p>\n

Or the EU, which just released its latest proposals to wean itself off Russian gas<\/a> – but not oil. However, that\u2019s just as Qatar –whom it will have to rely on instead– warned that LNG carriers sailing to it should wait outside the Strait of Hormuz as GPS tracking being jammed has already seen two tankers collide, and its foreign ministry noted everyone is concerned about \u201cuncalculated targeting\u201d of the South Pars gas field.<\/p>\n

The EU is also spurning economic dialogue with China due to the latter\u2019s neo-mercantilism: a planned summit in July is now off. Moreover, European Commission President Von der Leyen said at the G7, \u201cOn this point, Donald is right – there is a serious problem\u2026<\/em> [China\u2019s] undercutting intellectual property protections, massive subsidies with the aim to dominate global manufacturing and supply chains. This is not market competition – it is distortion with intent<\/em>,\u201d and threatens \u201ca new China shock<\/em>.\u201d So, is the EU going to line up with the US vs. China as the larger threat? If not, what?<\/p>\n

That\u2019s as ECB President Lagarde spoke of a \u201cglobal euro moment.\u201d No, not more countries watching their camp Song Contest –where Israel was also a story this year– but EUR gaining ground on the USD as a global reserve asset. Yet that\u2019s at a time when European powerlessness vis-\u00e0-vis the US could not be more amply demonstrated across multiple realpolitik dimensions from military to energy to tech to banking<\/strong>. (And as UK PM Starmer is reportedly going to meet NATO defence spending targets by counting rural broadband as such. \u201cWe\u201d feel safer already.)<\/p>\n

Indeed, while Bloomberg notes \u2018Trump Is Driving Off Investors and Imperilling the Dollar\u2019s Reign\u2019 it\u2019s others\u2019 physical reigns<\/em> in question due to US hard power. If markets are too blind to see that truth, \u201cbecause markets\u201d, and think somehow, they sit above that dynamic, not below it, then I\u2019m not sure what function they play anymore \u2013 with emphasis on the word \u2018play\u2019.<\/p>\n

The same can be said about fudging defense spending figures to please markets who think pure economic policy targets actually still matter. Go ahead: just don\u2019t be surprised if you turn out to be more of an Iran and less of an Israel if\/when push ever comes to shove.<\/em><\/p>\n

Notably, Lagarde\u2019s call also implies Europe must produce more financial assets and less physical stuff \u2013 as if that helps it in the present geopolitical circumstances. On cue(?), the EU is to resurrect securitisation banking practices that helped cause the 2008 global financial crisis<\/a>. Then again, \u2018US Plans to Ease Capital Rule Limiting Banks\u2019 Treasury Trades\u2019, where Bloomberg notes: \u201cThe revisions aim to bolster banks’ roles as intermediaries in the market, but some experts argue that easing the leverage ratio may not encourage banks to buy more Treasuries and could make the financial system more fragile<\/em>.\u201d But if this all goes wrong, who will need whose swap lines as part of a bailout? I\u2019m asking for a friend who may or may not be in a bunker.<\/p>\n

True, Bloomberg also ran a story saying some exporters to the US don\u2019t want to receive dollars: so, don\u2019t sell to the US then<\/em>, which is how the current and capital accounts link up; or get the dollars and sell them to someone else<\/em>. There is no sign of an unconditional dollar surrender here really.<\/p>\n

In politics, the US Supreme Court will also get to look at Trump tariffs at some point later this year \u2013 who doesn\u2019t, it seems? Moreover, the White House may ban pharma firms from TV advertising, with a huge impact on both, and the FBI is alluding to attempted Chinese election interference in 2020. Not a dull moment.<\/p>\n

But it\u2019s the Fed today, where their usual whisperer Nick Timiraos is tweeting that they would be thinking about cutting already if not for their concern over the known unknowns of tariffs, which have not shown any real impact on CPI so far<\/strong>. Yet what about the unknown unknowns of geopolitics? Will the Fed today mark an unconditional surrender to that hard exogenous reality or continue to fight and die on the hill that it has nothing to do with them at all\u2026 and that they have nothing to do with it, when actually they ? <\/em><\/p>\n

I would wager most of the money will be on the latter, who coincidentally think the same way \u2013 for now. After all it\u2019s not until 2026 that they must face up to that ugly reality, unless we get a Shadow Fed Chair appointed earlier. <\/strong>Plenty of time to go risk on and ignore the world around them and their now subordinate position within it.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nWed, 06\/18\/2025 – 10:50<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bhttps:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/markets\/unconditional-surrender<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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