{"id":1544194,"date":"2025-06-28T02:10:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-28T06:10:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1544194"},"modified":"2025-06-28T02:10:00","modified_gmt":"2025-06-28T06:10:00","slug":"prediction-consensus-2025-midyear-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/prediction-consensus-2025-midyear-update\/1544194\/","title":{"rendered":"Prediction Consensus: 2025 Midyear Update"},"content":{"rendered":"

Prediction Consensus: 2025 Midyear Update<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Each year, our editorial team at Visual Capitalist<\/a>\u00a0sifts through hundreds of reports and articles to put together our\u00a0Prediction\u00a0Consensus<\/a>, an aggregation of everything that experts predict for the year ahead.<\/p>\n

Almost halfway through 2025 now, it\u2019s time to see how these predictions\u00a0are holding up. From Trump\u2019s friendships and\u00a0feuds to geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility, many expert predictions have already come true.<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Along with the update of our Prediction Consensus bingo card above, this article dives into the most notable developments with visuals breaking them down.<\/p>\n

Presidential Predictions and D.O.G.E. Cuts<\/h2>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

While Trump has been fairly unpredictable during the first six months of his presidential term, many experts read him right when it came to his relationship with Elon Musk and Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell.<\/p>\n

Even without any significant economic problems in the U.S., the president has been relentless in his demands for Powell to cut rates, already giving him the nickname of \u201cToo Late\u201d Jerome Powell.<\/p>\n

Rather than blaming Powell for an economic downturn which hasn\u2019t manifested yet, the focus has been on the interest payments of U.S. short-term debt, which would indeed fall if rates were cut.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

These cuts are even more needed for the budget considering D.O.G.E.\u2019s inability to cut spending, along with the lack of spending restraint in Trump\u2019s \u201cOne Big Beautiful Bill\u201d, which is\u00a0estimated<\/a>\u00a0to add $2.4 trillion to the federal deficit between 2025 and 2034.<\/p>\n

Looking at Elon Musk\u2019s goals for D.O.G.E.\u2019s spending cuts, we can see just how little the organization managed to cut in comparison to the projected 2025 fiscal year spending of $7 trillion.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

D.O.G.E.\u2019s inability to make headway in cutting spending, along with Tesla suffering from Musk\u2019s political involvement, led to Musk departing from the administration on May 30th.<\/p>\n

Just a few days later, Musk posted on X his dissatisfaction with Trump\u2019s bill, calling it a \u201cdisgusting abomination\u201d, and following up with posts alleging Trump\u2019s involvement with Jeffrey Epstein. Trump\u2019s retaliation came in the form of threats of revoking federal contracts and calling Musk mentally unstable.<\/p>\n

However, by the following week, Musk had apologized and expressed regret for his statements, with Trump ultimately saying he had \u201cno hard feelings\u201d about the matter.<\/p>\n

Europe Shines Brighter Than the \u201cNot so Magnificent Seven\u201d<\/h2>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

When it comes to the markets, while experts predicted European equities\u2019 returns to improve, they probably didn\u2019t expect to see them outperform quite this much as quickly as they did.<\/p>\n

In the first two months of 2025 alone, Germany\u2019s DAX 40 index rose 13.2%, Italy\u2019s Milano Italia Borsa by 12.5%, and the UK\u2019s FTSE 100 by 7.8%.<\/p>\n

Europe\u2019s equity indices have been among the best performing of 2025 so far, greatly outpacing both U.S. large cap and small cap indices.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Amidst U.S. equity underperformance has been the mixed returns of the Magnificent Seven stocks, with significant divergences across the seven tech companies.<\/p>\n

Apple and Tesla have suffered the most in 2025 so far. Musk\u2019s political involvement has only hurt Tesla\u2019s brand with non-Republicans and those outside of America, meanwhile, tariffs along with a late and poorly executed AI rollout have dragged on Apple\u2019s returns.<\/p>\n

For Alphabet, Google\u2019s large capital expenditures on AI infrastructure are being seen as a drag on free cash flow which may not pay off. This hit to margins is coupled with revenue concerns from declining search usage due to ChatGPT\u2019s rising popularity and the lack of a clear monetization plan for Gemini and Google\u2019s other AI features.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

If we look at Nvidia\u2019s yearly returns since 2019 in the chart below, we can see that keeping up with the stellar triple-digit returns of 2023 and 2024 was a near impossible task for 2025.<\/p>\n

While Nvidia\u2019s growth has normalized from the breakneck pace of prior years, the company retains dominant market share when it comes to chip design. Along with this, the emergence of AI reasoning models and the development of agents have only increased the forecasts of\u00a0token<\/a>\u00a0throughput and compute required.<\/p>\n

This article is an excerpt from the latest VC+ Special Dispatch. Join VC+ to access the full version, packed with more expert predictions and exclusive visuals. And for a limited time, get\u00a0VC+ for life<\/a>\u00a0with a one-time payment. Hurry\u2014offer ends in a few days.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nFri, 06\/27\/2025 – 22:10<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bhttps:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/geopolitical\/prediction-consensus-2025-midyear-update<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Prediction Consensus: 2025 Midyear Update Each year, our editorial team at Visual Capitalist\u00a0sifts through hundreds of reports and articles to put together our\u00a0Prediction\u00a0Consensus, an aggregation…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":1544195,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1544194","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1544194","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1544194"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1544194\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1544195"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1544194"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1544194"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1544194"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}