{"id":1544818,"date":"2025-07-02T02:35:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-02T06:35:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1544818"},"modified":"2025-07-02T02:35:00","modified_gmt":"2025-07-02T06:35:00","slug":"how-iran-war-exposed-limits-of-chinese-influence-in-middle-east","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/how-iran-war-exposed-limits-of-chinese-influence-in-middle-east\/1544818\/","title":{"rendered":"How Iran War Exposed Limits Of Chinese Influence In Middle East"},"content":{"rendered":"

How Iran War Exposed Limits Of Chinese Influence In Middle East<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Authored by Terri Wu via The Epoch Times,<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

The world had a moment of clarity during the Israel\u2013Iran conflict.<\/strong><\/p>\n

For years, analysts have noted that China is closing in on the United States as a peer competitor, whether in terms of high-tech industries, naval fleets, or the size of its diplomatic corps.<\/p>\n

That power shift seemed to have also played out in the Middle East, a region where the United States has traditionally held significant influence.<\/p>\n

Two years ago, Beijing brokered the normalization of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Later the same year, the China-led BRICS bloc, designed to counterbalance the U.S.-led Western democracies, admitted four new members from the region: Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.<\/p>\n

The bloc was formed by Brazil, Russia, India, and China in 2009 and expanded to include South Africa in 2010.<\/p>\n

However, the action of the United States\u2014and the inaction of China\u2014during the 12-day Israel\u2013Iran conflict revealed that the power gap between Beijing and Washington remains sizable.<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

The United States joined its ally Israel in the conflict on June 21 by attacking key Iranian nuclear sites with 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs. <\/strong><\/p>\n

Two days later, President Donald Trump announced a cease-fire between Israel and Iran. The truce appears to be holding so far.<\/p>\n

By contrast, Beijing\u2019s support for Iran remained largely rhetorical.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Chinese regime condemned Israel and criticized the United States over the strikes on Iran. It also released joint statements<\/a> with member states of BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a China- and Russia-led security grouping, expressing \u201cgrave concern\u201d that the attacks on Iran violated international law.<\/p>\n

The revelation of the power gap between the United States and China means that countries will move closer into Washington\u2019s orbit, according to Yeh Yao-yuan, a professor of international studies at the University of St. Thomas in Houston.<\/p>\n

That means Middle Eastern countries will shift from a pro-Beijing position to a neutral stance in the contest between China and the United States as the world moves into two camps led by the two powers, he told The Epoch Times.<\/p>\n

Beijing is keenly aware that the U.S. focus is on Asia, particularly China, according to Christopher Balding, a senior fellow at the UK-based Henry Jackson Society. The Chinese regime deliberately kept a low profile during the Israel\u2013Iran military conflict, he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe more that they can keep the U.S. working on other non-China issues, I think that they see it as better for them,\u201d Balding, also a contributor to The Epoch Times, told the publication.<\/em><\/p>\n

According to China expert Alexander Liao, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is uncertain about its next steps.<\/p>\n

\u201cBeijing has realized that its existing assessment of the world\u2014that the East is rising and the West is declining\u2014doesn\u2019t hold anymore,\u201d Liao told The Epoch Times.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u201cShould they change the course of their strategic directions? If so, how? They haven\u2019t made up their mind yet.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Iran’s Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh (C) attends the Shanghai Cooperation Organization defense ministers\u2019 meeting in Qingdao, China, on June 26, 2025. The SCO\u2019s nine official members include China, India, and Russia. China\u2019s support has helped Iran sustain its economy and nuclear program despite decades of U.S. and UN sanctions. Pedro Pardo\/AFP via Getty Images<\/em><\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s Role in China\u2019s Plan<\/h2>\n

China\u2019s support is the main reason Iran could sustain its economy and nuclear enrichment program despite decades of sanctions<\/a> by the United States and the United Nations. The International Atomic Energy Agency\u00a0verified<\/a> a few days before the Israel\u2013Iran conflict that Iran had 400 kilograms of enriched uranium.<\/p>\n

Iran holds high geopolitical value to China. Its\u00a0location<\/a>, linking East and West, has made it an important node for the CCP\u2019s Belt and Road Initiative. This foreign policy platform presents itself as a global infrastructure development program.<\/p>\n

Chinese communist leader Xi Jinping visited Iran in 2016, during which the two countries formed a so-called comprehensive strategic partnership.<\/p>\n

In 2021, Beijing and Tehran signed a 25-year agreement. China committed $400 billion in investments in telecom, banking, ports, and other infrastructure in Iran. In return, Iran agreed to supply China with oil.<\/p>\n

Today, China purchases approximately 90 percent of Iran\u2019s crude oil. Last year, the daily volume<\/a> was about 1.5 million barrels, according to market intelligence company Kpler.<\/p>\n

To circumvent sanctions, the oil trade between China and Iran is typically conducted in Chinese yuan or as a barter. This reduces trade volumes transacted in U.S. dollars and aligns with Beijing\u2019s ambition to de-dollarize and increase the importance of the yuan in global trade.<\/p>\n

The Rise of NATO<\/h2>\n

During this year\u2019s NATO summit in The Hague, 32 member states\u00a0agreed<\/a> to increase defense spending to 5 percent of their gross domestic products (GDPs) by 2035.<\/p>\n

That means the NATO military spending will more than double, given that members on average spent 2 percent of their GDPs in 2024.<\/p>\n

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, NATO members\u00a0accounted<\/a> for about 55 percent of the total $2.7 trillion in global military expenditure. With NATO\u2019s double spending, the ratio is expected to increase to roughly 70 percent.<\/p>\n

NATO also reaffirmed its \u201cironclad\u201d commitment<\/a> to Article 5, which states that any attack on a member country is an attack on all.<\/p>\n

On June 25, the military alliance also\u00a0released<\/a> a statement, along with its Indo-Pacific partners, stating that \u201cthe security of the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific is interconnected.\u201d The four partners are Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand.<\/p>\n

The Chinese regime is monitoring NATO developments closely.<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

NATO heads of state and government pose for an official photo at the 2025 NATO Summit in The Hague, Netherlands, on June 25, 2025. Among other matters, 32 member states agreed to increase defense spending to 5 percent of their GDPs by 2035. A day later, China\u2019s foreign ministry criticized the move as well as NATO\u2019s increasing focus on the Asia-Pacific region. Omar Havana\/Getty Images<\/em><\/p>\n

A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, in a post<\/a> on social media platform X on June 26, criticized the spending boost and the alliance\u2019s growing interest in the Asia-Pacific region.<\/p>\n

Liao considers it \u201cvery likely\u201d that democracies will expand their regional security alliances to one that\u2019s global in scope.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf such a significant expansion happens, it will be lethal to the Chinese Communist Party,\u201d<\/strong><\/em> he said.<\/p>\n

The expansion would mean that the Article 5-style commitment would cover Indo-Pacific nations, Liao said. He said he believes that the United States is poised to expand the current security alliance; it\u2019s just waiting for the right time and opportunity.<\/p>\n

\u201cAny conflict with South Korea or Japan will evolve to a conflict with a group that accounts for 70 percent of global military spending,\u201d he said. \u201cThis will make China\u2019s goal of taking over Taiwan very challenging.\u201d<\/p>\n

Amy K. Mitchell, a founding partner at geopolitical consultancy Kilo Alpha Strategies, said that there\u2019s a \u201cvery strong potential\u201d that Trump will try to establish a NATO-like security alliance in the Indo-Pacific.<\/p>\n

That would be a \u201cvery big legacy project for President Trump,\u201d she told The Epoch Times.<\/p>\n

For now, she sees the president himself and his unpredictability as the main deterrent to China.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Chinese Communist Party is probably rethinking how it\u2019s going to handle the administration,\u201d Mitchell said.<\/p>\n

China still faces uncertainty in the ongoing trade war with the United States.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Beijing\u00a0announced<\/a> new controls on two fentanyl precursors on June 20, a day after a rare meeting between Chinese Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong and U.S. Ambassador to China David Perdue. Wang told Perdue that the regime was open to collaboration on curbing narcotics and illegal immigration, according to Chinese state media reports.<\/p>\n

The move was aimed at lifting the 20 percent fentanyl-related U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. The current tariff level on China is about 50 percent, which is the cumulative rate composed of fentanyl tariffs, 10 percent reciprocal tariffs, and existing levies from the Biden administration.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

A worker moves pieces of steel machinery at a manufacturing company in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China, on June 16, 2025. China\u2019s factory output rose less than expected in May amid continued uncertainty from its trade war with the United States. STR\/AFP via Getty Images<\/em><\/p>\n

China\u00a0signed<\/a> an additional trade agreement with the United States last week, detailing the terms negotiated in Geneva in May. For now, the 20 percent U.S. tariff tied to China\u2019s role in fentanyl trafficking will remain.<\/p>\n

Beijing\u2019s slow walk on exporting rare earth elements has been a focal point in rounds of negotiations between the two countries.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Chinese Commerce Ministry on June 27 stated that it would \u201creview and approve eligible export applications for controlled items in accordance with the law\u201d as a part of the framework agreement. While it did not explicitly mention rare earths, the statement was made in response to an unnamed reporter\u2019s question on rare earths exports.<\/p>\n

Rare earths are essential for producing permanent magnets, a must-have component of modern manufacturing. They are also critical to military and defense hardware. China\u2019s export licenses only cover civilian purposes and need to be renewed every six months.<\/p>\n

Balding said China is likely to hold more tightly onto its near-monopoly control over rare earth supply.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn addition to demonstrating its power over the global economy, China does not want to be helping the U.S. military prepare when each side is focusing more and more on how to fight each other,\u201d<\/strong><\/em> he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nTue, 07\/01\/2025 – 22:35<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bhttps:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/geopolitical\/how-iran-war-exposed-limits-chinese-influence-middle-east<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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