{"id":1545259,"date":"2025-07-04T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-04T13:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1545259"},"modified":"2025-07-04T09:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-07-04T13:00:00","slug":"whyd-erdogan-decide-to-expand-turkiyes-sphere-of-influence-eastwards","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/whyd-erdogan-decide-to-expand-turkiyes-sphere-of-influence-eastwards\/1545259\/","title":{"rendered":"Why’d Erdogan Decide To Expand Turkiye’s Sphere Of Influence Eastwards?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Why’d Erdogan Decide To Expand Turkiye’s Sphere Of Influence Eastwards?<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Assad\u2019s downfall set into motion a fast-moving sequence of events that now threatens Russian influence in the South Caucasus, the Caspian Sea, and Central Asia; i.e. its entire southern periphery…<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

The latest developments in the South Caucasus are connected to the expansion of Turkiye\u2019s sphere of influence eastwards towards the Caspian Sea and thenceforth Central Asia. The\u00a0unrest in Armenia<\/a>\u00a0is driven by the opposition\u2019s concerns that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is prepared to turn the country into a joint Azeri-Turkish protectorate. That could occur if he reaches a deal with them like\u00a0some have reported<\/a>\u00a0to open the \u201cZangezur Corridor\u201d without allowing it to come under Russian control like agreed.<\/p>\n

The Moscow-mediated Armenian-Azerbaijani ceasefire of November 2020 mandates the creation of a\u00a0Russian-controlled corridor<\/a>\u00a0across Armenia\u2019s southern Syunik Province, which Baku calls the Zangezur Corridor, for connecting both parts of Azerbaijan. <\/strong>Russian control would prevent Turkiye from streamlining its military logistics to Central Asia via these means for replacing Russia\u2019s influence there with its own as part of a grand strategic powerplay that autonomously aligns with the West\u2019s agenda.<\/p>\n

The second development is directly connected with the first and relates to the\u00a0newfound trouble in Russian-Azerbaijani relations<\/a>. President Ilham Aliyev evidently believes that his country has a brighter future as part of a Turkish-led regional order instead of continuing to multi-align between it and Russia. He likely arrived at this conclusion due to the earlier cited reports about the Zangezur Corridor, which could have led to his policy recalibration that then emboldened him to bully Russia for regional prestige.<\/p>\n

The catalyst for these developments is the credible possibility that the Zangezur Corridor might open up without coming under Russian control like agreed, which itself was brought about to a large degree by Assad\u2019s downfall and the US\u2019 subsequently changed policy towards the broader region in the aftermath. <\/strong>Turkish influence briefly surged in Syria before\u00a0spooking Israel<\/a>, which prompted Trump to bring previously terrorist-designated Ahmad al-Sharaa (Jolani) in from the cold to help manage their tensions.<\/p>\n

He\u00a0met<\/a>\u00a0him,\u00a0encouraged<\/a>\u00a0him to join the Abraham Accords with Israel (which the\u00a0latest reports<\/a>\u00a0suggest that Sharaa is considering), and\u00a0removed<\/a>\u00a0the US\u2019 sanctions on Syria. This sequence of events will greatly limit Turkish influence in Syria, but it\u2019s balanced out by the\u00a0PKK\u2019s disbandment<\/a>\u00a0and the possible consolation prize that Trump could have given\u00a0his friend Erdogan<\/a>. That might involve him ceding the US\u2019 previously envisaged joint US-French protectorate in Armenia to Turkiye and Azerbaijan instead.<\/p>\n

It wouldn\u2019t just be a goodwill gesture on Trump\u2019s part but a pragmatic move since the US\u2019 efforts to turn Armenia into a bastion for dividing-and-ruling the region required subordinating or overthrowing the Georgian government, which\u00a0repelled<\/a>\u00a0several rounds of\u00a0Color Revolution<\/a>\u00a0unrest to this end. <\/strong>This Biden-era failure derailed the US and France\u2019s military logistics to Armenia, hence why it\u2019s better to jettison this deadweight, which can now turbocharge Turkiye\u2019s rise as a Eurasian Great Power at Russia\u2019s expense.<\/p>\n

These calculations and associated policy changes, which stem from the black swan event of Assad\u2019s downfall, account for the latest developments in the South Caucasus. Nevertheless, Aliyev didn\u2019t have to abandon Azerbaijan\u2019s Russian-Turkish balancing act nor bully Russia as he clearly ordered his officials to do by raiding Sputnik\u2019s office and\u00a0beating up<\/a>\u00a0other detained Russians. These emotional, short-sighted, and totally unexpected moves inadvertently risk Azerbaijan becoming Turkiye\u2019s junior partner with time.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nFri, 07\/04\/2025 – 05:00<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bhttps:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/geopolitical\/whyd-erdogan-decide-expand-turkiyes-sphere-influence-eastwards<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Why’d Erdogan Decide To Expand Turkiye’s Sphere Of Influence Eastwards? Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack, Assad\u2019s downfall set into motion a fast-moving sequence of…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":1545260,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1545259","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1545259","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1545259"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1545259\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1545260"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1545259"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1545259"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1545259"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}