{"id":1549750,"date":"2025-07-29T18:05:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-29T22:05:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/?p=1549750"},"modified":"2025-07-29T18:05:00","modified_gmt":"2025-07-29T22:05:00","slug":"oil-prices-spike-as-trumps-shortened-deadline-for-putin-will-soon-reveal-which-of-them-miscalculated","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/oil-prices-spike-as-trumps-shortened-deadline-for-putin-will-soon-reveal-which-of-them-miscalculated\/1549750\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Prices Spike As Trump’s Shortened Deadline For Putin Will Soon Reveal Which Of Them Miscalculated"},"content":{"rendered":"

Oil Prices Spike As Trump’s Shortened Deadline For Putin Will Soon Reveal Which Of Them Miscalculated<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Polar opposite understandings of the Sino-Indo prisoner\u2019s dilemma lie at the core of their calculations…<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Trump\u00a0announced<\/a>\u00a0on Monday that he was shortening his 50-day deadline to Putin for a ceasefire in Ukraine to \u201cabout 10 or 12 days from today\u201d, thus meaning that he plans to impose up to 100% tariffs on all its trading partners by 7-9 August, but likely with exceptions such as the EU that he just subjugated. <\/strong><\/p>\n

Turkiye might also be excluded given its attempt to\u00a0expand its influence eastward<\/a>\u00a0at Russia\u2019s expense, as could minor US trade partners like the Central Asian Republics as long as they curtail trade with Russia.<\/p>\n

The question on everyone\u2019s mind is whether he\u2019ll tariff China and India, if they don\u2019t cut off or at least curtail their resource-centric imports from Russia, that is.<\/strong> They\u2019re Russia\u2019s top trading partners, which collectively form the RIC core of\u00a0BRICS<\/a>, yet they trade more with the US (with whom they\u2019re in ongoing trade negotiations) than with Russia. China and India are also some of the world\u2019s largest economies so the US\u2019 imposition of 100% tariffs could destabilize the global economy and raise prices for Americans.<\/p>\n

[ZH: Oil prices are spiking on the reiterated headlines today from Trump sanctions on Russian oil…]<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Trump just clinched a lopsided trade deal with the EU that turned it into\u00a0the US\u2019 largest-ever vassal state<\/a>, which might embolden him to tariff China and\/or India despite their ongoing trade talks if they defy him should he believe that this new arrangement can help reduce the blowback to the US. He\u2019s therefore calculating that China and\/or India will at least curtail energy imports from Russia, whether voluntarily or under tariff duress, thus hitting its coffers and making Putin more pliable to concessions with time.<\/p>\n

For his part, Putin is calculating that Russia can still achieve its goals in full \u2013 controlling the entirety of the disputed regions, demilitarizing Ukraine,\u00a0denazifying\u00a0<\/a>it, and then restoring its constitutional neutrality \u2013 even if China and\/or India curtail trade with it, though he\u2019s not sure they will. <\/strong>Each is under tremendous pressure from the US in their own way so he might expect them to defy it. If both do so, then they might patch up their problems, thus turning RIC into a force to be reckoned with by the US.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s and Putin\u2019s calculations have the\u00a0prisoner\u2019s dilemma<\/a>\u00a0in common. Trump\u2019s tariff threats and the other arms-related pillars of his\u00a0new three-pronged policy<\/a>\u00a0towards Ukraine are correspondingly intended to coerce economic-political concessions from China and India and geopolitical-security ones from Russia. He expects at least one of BRICS\u2019 Asian anchors to even only partially comply, thus enabling him to exacerbate the Sino-Indo rivalry for the US\u2019 hegemonic benefit and then put more pressure on Russia.<\/p>\n

None of them wants to be the last to reach a deal with the US, Trump believes, and accordingly have much less negotiating flexibility than ever.<\/strong> Putin conversely believes that China and India are more concerned about the consequences of the other becoming Russia\u2019s top partner if their country complies with the US but their rival doesn\u2019t (as explained\u00a0here<\/a>) than with the consequences of Trump\u2019s threatened tariffs. He\u2019s also confident that the US can\u2019t stop Russia from achieving its goals in any case.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s shortened deadline for Putin will therefore soon reveal which of them miscalculated. <\/strong>The whole reason why everything has gotten to the point where the US might further escalate its involvement in this conflict is due to Trump being\u00a0manipulated into mission creep<\/a>\u00a0by\u00a0Lindsey Graham<\/a>\u00a0and others as elaborated in the preceding hyperlinked analyses. Early June\u2019s assessment that \u201cThe Russian-Ukrainian Talks Are At An Impasse That Only The US Or Brute Force Can Break<\/a>\u201d has just been vindicated.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tyler Durden<\/a><\/span>
\nTue, 07\/29\/2025 – 14:05<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bhttps:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/geopolitical\/trumps-shortened-deadline-putin-will-soon-reveal-which-them-miscalculated<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Oil Prices Spike As Trump’s Shortened Deadline For Putin Will Soon Reveal Which Of Them Miscalculated Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack, Polar opposite understandings…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":1549751,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1549750","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1549750","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1549750"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1549750\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1549751"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1549750"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1549750"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bugaluu.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1549750"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}