In 2007, earthquake scientists led by the USGS, CGS, and SCEC estimated that there is a 63% probability of a magnitude 6.7 or greater earthquake in the Bay Area in the next 30 years. Although the hazard is spread throughout the Bay Area, some faults are more likely to rupture than others.
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/events/1868calif/virtualtour/modern.php

