I analyzed 850,000 ESPN In-Game Win Probabilities. Here’s what … – Reddit

June 28, 2024

Conclusion It appears that ESPN doesn’t sufficiently factor in pregame probabilities to their in-game analysis, causing them to overreact to game play and not count on stronger teams coming from behind or weaker teams losing a lead. Also, home teams have a strong tendency to over-perform in the fourth quarter versus what ESPN predicts.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/1048sou/i_analyzed_850000_espn_ingame_win_probabilities/

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