Geopolitical discussion is swirling around Trump’s confrontation of South Africa’s government and their complicity in a growing race war against white Afrikaners.  The specific issue being open calls for property confiscation and the murder of the white population.  No group or political party is singing songs about killing black Africans.  They are only singing songs about killing whites.

This fact and a myriad of conditions have led many overseas, especially in America, to worry about the potential for full spectrum genocide.  There is already a slow grinding death machine that is chewing up Afrikaner farming communities over the course of years, but it situation could easily cross the line into mass murder. 

Others, however, are rooting for South Africa’s socialist government. 

A common refrain in the past week is the argument that Donald Trump is “pushing SA into the arms of China and the Belt and Road Initiative” by cutting off foreign aid and making the treatment of the Afrikaners into an international debate. What would happen if SA turned to the BRICS?  As if this was not already a reality, South Africa has been closely tied to the BRICS since they formally joined the economic bloc in 2010.  From 2010 to 2018 the BRICS experienced substantial growth and global influence. 

However, the China of 10 years ago is not the China of today.  China’s foreign direct investments (FDI) in Africa were steady since 2003 (like US investments) as the country started buying up oil and raw commodities, but they are now on the decline.

The communist nation’s economy is in dire straits.  The shutdowns during the covid pandemic triggered a deflationary spiral that they have not been able to recover from.  Foreign investments in China have dropped over 77% since 2022.  The country suffered a 27% investment cut in 2024 alone. 

It should be noted that the Chinese were already experiencing an export drop in 2018-2019 due to Trump tariffs and reduced consumer spending in the west.  In 2025, the CCP is struggling with a crushing deflationary crisis – It’s likely if current tariffs remain in place or expand, China will face a financial crash.

In turn, Chinese investment in some regions is shriveling.  To put the money situation in perspective, most African nations have little to no capacity to develop without foreign cash flow.  They need first-world nations to back infrastructure and resource projects.

China’s investment in Africa peaked a decade ago.  Their direct investment into Africa in 2023 was $3.96 billion.  In 2018 China announced a $15 billion foreign aid and investment deal with South Africa, but there are suspicions as to how much of this cash is actually reaching SA. China’s overall cash flow into the region is dropping fast.  This was partially due to the pandemic and the lockdowns, but also because of the greater deflationary crisis that has struck China after they finally started easing conditions for medical tyranny.  

Keep in mind, there’s not a single financial data point coming from the CCP that can be trusted.  The government has thoroughly rigged all stats to show steady growth.  Experts on Chinese employment data suggest that the government is hiding an impressive spike in joblessness.  In the case of youth (workers age 16-25) they argue that China’s unemployment is not 21%, but 46%. 

This number better correlates to China’s falling exports and imports (numbers that are harder to manipulate or hide), and the lack of recovery from the covid lockdowns.

South Africa is also dealing with a persistent trade deficit with China that is benefiting the CCP far more than it is benefiting the SA economy.  South Africa primarily exports raw materials to China while China exports a multitude of finished goods with higher value.  The trade imbalance has resulted in an accumulated cash outflow of US$114.83 billion from South Africa to China.

South Africa only raised concerns about these alarming trends in 2024, at the ninth FOCAC meeting.

In other words, China’s partnership is definitely not a boon for South Africa.  China feeds on other nations, they do not save other nations.  The narrative that China will swoop in to protect SA if the US permanently cuts off foreign aid and investment is perhaps based on an outdated perception of China’s economic strength.  Or, it’s based on delusion.

South Africa’s 32% unemployment rate, instability in infrastructure and depressing violent crime spike are not going to be solved by fizzling investment from China.  China can’t even save itself and has taken to rigging nearly all of it’s economic indicators instead of trying to fix the problem.  Their investment plans are falling by the wayside because they can’t afford to support Africa anymore.  In the meantime, the CCP pays lip service to greater financial cooperation, but the shrinking numbers tell us the real story. 

If the South African government thinks they will be able to attach like a barnacle to China’s economic ship as a way to “stick it to Trump”, then they are in for an unpleasant surprise.