Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

The situation remains very combustible and could easily explode at the slightest spark…

Russia and the US rarely agree on much, but their top diplomats just sounded the alarm about Syria, which should convince objective observers that there’s credence to their warnings. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that “The situation in the Middle East is particularly troubling, especially in Syria, where groups of radical militants commit real acts of ethnic cleansing and mass executions on ethnic and religious grounds.”

This was a reference to March’s Kristallnacht-like killings of Syria’s Alawite minority.

As for Secretary of State Marco Rubio, he said that “It is our assessment that, frankly, the transitional authority, given the challenges they’re facing, are maybe weeks — not many months — away from potential collapse and a full-scale civil war of epic proportions, basically the country splitting up.” He was likely alluding not only to the mass killings of Syria’s Alawites, but recent tensions with the Druze minority and potential problems in implementing spring’s national reintegration deal with the Kurds.

Prior to these top diplomats’ warnings, there was some cautious optimism about Syria’s future after Russia was able to retain its bases there for the time being, Trump met Jolani/Sharaa, and the US and then the EU lifted sanctions on Syria. Nevertheless, the aforesaid three positive developments were still overshadowed by the abovementioned problems, which pair with the Israeli-Turkish rivalry in Syria to create a very combustible situation.

To make matters worse, Russia’s Khmeimim airbase was recently attacked by what Russian milblog Rybar claimed were Uzbek militants, who might have gone rogue for whatever reason but Rybar suspects that they actually intended to send a plausibly deniable hostile message from the new authorities.

Whatever their true motivation might be, it shows how volatile the situation remains in Syria, which could prompt all relevant foreign stakeholders into seriously considering their contingency plans there.

These are Russia, the US, Turkiye, Israel, and even the Iranian-led “Resistance Axis” to a degree, and the interplay between them could decisively shape Syria’s future. 

Apart from the previously described Israeli-Turkish rivalry, Israel was reportedly lobbying the US to keep Russia’s bases in Syria earlier this year, while another report claimed that Israel is engaged in secret Emirati-mediated talks with Syria. There are also recent reports about the Trump-Bibi rift, which might be irreconcilable, to consider too.

Another influential variable could be the nascent Russian–US “New Détente”, which might see them coordinate their activities in Syria, just like Turkiye and the US might do the same after Trump congratulated Erdogan for last December’s regime change. Observers also shouldn’t rule out that the “Resistance Axis” might have some “sleeper cells” across Syria waiting for the right time to “awake”. The chaotic interplay between these relevant foreign stakeholders could easily “Balkanize” Syria.

Syria might therefore be in for some tough times ahead due to these factors. 

To recap, the new authorities’ persecution of minorities might push some of them into taking up arms, after which they could be patronized by the identified foreign stakeholders. 

Some of these external players might then exploit these partners as proxies for dividing-and-ruling Syria. 

If another full-scale war ensues, then the region will once again be destabilized, and another tidal wave of refugees might crash into Europe.