History says Matthew Stafford will win MVP after All-Pro nod, but it's not a lock

We got a major hint as to which quarterback will win NFL MVP when the AP All-Pro teams were revealed on Saturday morning. Los Angeles Rams veteran Matthew Stafford edged out New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye as the first-team All-Pro quarterback, a strong indication of how the MVP vote will go.

Since 1990, only one player has won solo MVP honors (Steve McNair and Peyton Manning were co-MVPs in 2003) without being a first-team All-Pro at his position: Josh Allen in 2024. Lamar Jackson was voted the first-team All-Pro, but Allen managed to beat him out for league MVP in what was a stunner to many.

The most recent instance before last year’s flip was in 1987 when John Elway won MVP and Joe Montana was the first-team All-Pro quarterback.

History suggests Stafford will almost certainly go on to win MVP, but it’s not a lock. And the latest betting odds reflect that; Stafford is -450 and Maye is +340, giving Stafford an implied probability of 81%.

The All-Pro votes this year were very similar to last year when Allen beat out Jackson.

2025

Stafford: 31 first-place votesMaye: 18 first-place votes

2024

Jackson: 30 first-place votesAllen: 18 first-place votes

It’s not impossible for Maye to win MVP without being a first-team All-Pro, but it’s extremely rare. The All-Pro voters are the same people who vote on league MVP, so unless they simply wanted to recognize Stafford for his statistical accomplishments and see Maye as being more valuable, MVP is likely to go to the Rams QB.

This article originally appeared on Rams Wire: Rams’ Matthew Stafford likely to win MVP after first-team All-Pro nod

https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/history-says-matthew-stafford-win-193749928.html